Many would argue that Patrick Mahomes was the fantasy MVP last year since he broke the single-season fantasy points record for a quarterback, but the fact of the matter is that his value over replacement (QB13) was merely just inside the top 20 of all-time among quarterbacks. Rather, it was again Todd Gurley who had the highest value above replacement. I don’t believe the best fantasy player is always the fantasy MVP, though. Rather, to me it comes down to their value over replacement then compared to the expectations based on their draft capital. For that reason, James Conner was my 2018 fantasy MVP while Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara split the award in 2017. I’ve got my eye on several players this year that I could see vastly outperforming their draft capital if everything breaks the right way. There are some like Justice Hill, Calvin Ridley and Darwin Thompson who could very well qualify for the article but I left them off because I just wrote about them two days ago in my potential 2020 first round fantasy picks article.
Beyond this article, I’d encourage you to take a moment to look at all the tools on our website (that some on Reddit have deemed “cheating”) as they will assuredly give you an upper hand over your league-mates. We offer customizable cheat sheets, our auction calculator and the expert consensus rankings that most know our site for. Make sure to quickly import your team for free into MyPlaybook, which is like having a team of experts in your war room, and while you’re at it, give my podcast a listen if you’d like. Thanks for visiting FantasyPros; we look forward to helping you win a few fantasy championships this season! Now let’s get onto the team!
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
Prior to Le’Veon Bell, we never saw a superstar hold out for an entire season. In fact, Bell’s decision backfired supremely as his contract with the Jets was nothing in comparison to his demands from the Steelers. Gordon’s camp has to recognize that failure and realize the true value of running backs in today’s NFL. You would expect that at this point, they are wrestling for a few extra 100 grand rather than expecting their absurd demands to be met. Perhaps he doesn’t play until Week 4, but there is also a strong chance we still get him for the entire season. Mind you, this is a player who was being drafted sixth overall prior to the holdout threat. There is absolutely a scenario where Austin Ekeler suffers an injury, Gordon assumes third-down and full-time goal-line duties and blows away his already insane pre-injury pace from last season. Prior to his Week 11 injury, Melvin Gordon had 1,189 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games. His full-season pace was 2,113 total yards, 19 scores and 373 fantasy points which would have been the #1 RB by 30+ points. If he does, he could carry teams to a fantasy title out of the 3rd round of drafts.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
“Wait, the low ceiling guy coming off a torn ACL? Really!?” I can’t figure out why everyone thinks Kupp has a low ceiling. He was the #2 fantasy receiver before he was injured last season. His full-season pace was 1,402 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns on 96 receptions. Is he likely to keep that up over a full season? No, of course not, and it is even more unlikely off a torn ACL. But is it possible? Yes, and perhaps more as Todd Gurley‘s workload is cut, Jared Goff matures and apparently Kupp is even faster than before if you can believe it. Add in an injury to either Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks and this scenario becomes even more plausible. Imagine getting DeAndre Hopkins‘ 2018 production in the 5th round.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)
“Wait, you just said Mahomes wasn’t MVP last year so do you think Rodgers could trump that season?” Folks, every single time Rodgers has been healthy, he has posted a top 12 overall VBD season. Back in 2011, he was #1 overall despite missing a game. He did all of this under a stone-aged coach who may very have held back his upside. Rodgers can still play too, as he threw for the second-highest yardage total of his career and with only two interceptions. He did that with a broken leg. With a new coach, healthy, athletic receivers who now have experience with Rodgers and two healthy legs, Rodgers could potentially shatter every single-season record. We all know touchdown rates are volatile, as evidenced by him bouncing around from 5.2% to 9.0% to 4.2% and 7.3%. If Rodgers’ spikes back up to 9% this year with the 597 passes he threw last year, we would be looking at 54 touchdowns, and that’s if they don’t throw even more often.
Latavius Murray (RB – NO)
When people think about high-end backup running backs, Darwin Thompson, Tony Pollard, Rashaad Penny and Darrell Henderson come to mind. Sure, you can get those guys later, but the back with the highest upside is Murray. Check out this stat from buddy of the podcast, JJ Zachariasion:
Here's how New Orleans Saints running backs have ranked in fantasy football scoring (PPR) as a team since 2011:
2018: 1st
2017: 1st
2016: 1st
2015: 2nd
2014: 1st
2013: 2nd
2012: 1st
2011: 1stThis is why the Latavius Murray signing matters.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) March 12, 2019
Murray, of course, has stand-alone value in place of Mark Ingram, but imagine if something happened to Alvin Kamara. We know Murray can handle a 300+ touch workload, and in this offense, that could very well make him a top 3 fantasy back.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE)
It is easy to look past just how dominant Beckham has been since he entered the league because his injuries have allowed him to be passed up by DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams and Julio Jones. In Beckham’s 56 career starts, here is his 16-game pace: 109 receptions, 1,585 yards and 12.9 touchdowns. That would be the best season for a fantasy receiver since 2015 and he accomplished that with Eli Manning. Give the man Baker Mayfield and could we quite possibly be flirting with 2000 yards or 20 touchdowns? It is in the realm of possibility and you can bet either of those marks would make him the 2019 fantasy MVP.
Malcolm Brown (RB – LAR)
I mentioned Darrell Henderson earlier, as everyone is drafting him as though he is the clear-cut handcuff to Todd Gurley. The fact of the matter, however, is that Henderson is listed fifth on the depth chart, is getting primarily 3rd down looks in the preseason and Brown is being held out of the games because the Rams deem him so crucial to their offense. Obviously, his ceiling is capped if Gurley remains healthy, but should the knee force him to miss a chunk of the season, it appears likely that Brown would shoulder the lion’s share of the workload. That is up in the air, of course, but we saw what C.J. Anderson did in this role and Brown is the most similar player on this roster so don’t be surprised if Brown accomplishes the same things, but over a longer time frame.
Some of my other 2019 Fantasy Football articles
- Cheat Sheet for Family & Friends
- QB Rankings and Notes
- RB Rankings and Notes
- WR Rankings and Notes
- TE Rankings and Notes
- 50 Stats for Draft Day
- Top 10 Sleepers
- Perfect Fantasy Football Mock Draft
- Auction Values
- Overall Rankings
- 7 Players who could be 2020 1st round fantasy picks
- Dynasty Rookie Rankings
- Cheat Code: Don’t Draft a Kicker
- Cheat Code: How to Maximize D/ST Value
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
