Fantasy Football Kicker Primer Week 4 (2019)

Adam Vinatieri entered Sunday’s Week 3 matchup against the Falcons with negative one fantasy points on the season, with two missed field goals and three missed extra points in his first to games.

After a disastrous Week 2 performance against the Titans Vinatieri refused to talk to reporters and intimated that he would hold a retirement press conference the following Monday. Instead, head coach Frank Reich reiterated his faith in the future Hall of Fame kicker and Vinatieri continued to act as the placekicker for the Colts. The savvy vet came through with ten fantasy points against Atlanta on two made field goals and three extra points.

On the opposite end of the age spectrum, rookie Matt Gay missed what would have been a game-winning field goal against the Giants at Raymond James Stadium. Curiously, head coach Bruce Arians purposely took a five-yard delay of game penalty to make the kick longer for Gay, based on the logic that the kicker is better from farther away. That head-scratching decision cost the Bucs the game and might have killed Gay’s confidence going forward.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup advice

Here are a few Week 3 strong performances from widely-available kickers

Matt Gay (TB) vs. NY Giants: 3% ownership on Yahoo
Although Gay missed the game-winning field goal against the Giants, the rookie kicker from the University of Utah has the 10th most fantasy points through three weeks and should continue to be a decent streaming option going forward – assuming the miss does not mess with his confidence. Jameis Winston continues to move the ball well, but the Bucs offense is the second-worst in the red zone and should continue to give Gay ample opportunities.

Dan Bailey (MIN) vs. Oakland: 12% ownership on Yahoo
Bailey jumped up into the top three this week with four extra points and two field goals, including a 50-yarder on Sunday against the Raiders. The Vikings are too efficient in the red zone, and their running game has been too successful to this point for me to recommend adding Bailey, but if the offense continues to put up points, he could become a plug and play based on extra points.

Josh Lambo (JAX) vs. Tennessee: 4% ownership on Yahoo
The Gardner Minshew mania in Jacksonville has Jags fans feeling somewhat better about the loss of Nick Foles to a broken collarbone. Minshew isn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield and appears to have an excellent rapport with DJ Chark. However, like most rookies, he has yet to excel in the red zone and on third-down conversions, which has improved the K Score for Josh Lambo.

Week 3 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers

Stephen Gostkowski (NE) vs. NY Jets: 100% ownership on Yahoo
The Patriots are the first team in the modern era to start the season without allowing an offensive touchdown through their first three games. The Pats have always benefitted from playing in a weak division, and the teams they have played so far this year have been terrible on offense and defense, which has relegated Gostkowski to extra points.

Justin Tucker (BAL) @ KC: 100% ownership on Yahoo
After two weeks of double-digit production, Justin Tucker joins Gostkowski on the Dud list after posting four extra points and no field goals against the Chiefs. Tucker owners should have no thoughts of moving on from their kicker based on his upcoming schedule and elite accuracy. Better times are on the horizon.

Kicker Rankings

*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank second in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 4:

Joey Slye (CAR): 55% Ownership on Yahoo
Slye enters Week 4 as the No. 1 kicker in fantasy with 36 points through three weeks. Fantasy writers have him ranked outside the top 12 presumably because of a tough road matchup against the Texans and the fact that Kyle Allen will start at quarterback instead of Cam Newton. While those factors are a concern, Allen moved the ball well against Arizona and the offense should be able to move the ball between the 20s to some extent against Houston.

Randy Bullock (CIN): 0% ownership on Yahoo
This pick will take a bit of faith on the part of an owner, as Bullock has dealt with accuracy issues and kicking at Heinz Field can be dicey. The reason why Bullock is an interesting play is his K Score is one of the best this week based on the fact that the Bengals do have an offense that ranks in the top 16 in yards per game, but Andy Dalton has struggled to convert drives into touchdowns. In addition, the Steelers defense is not one of the best in the league, but they have been solid in keeping opponents to a low red-zone conversion rate. Add in the fact that Mason Rudolph and the offense looks out of sync, and you have the makings of a game script conducive to a field goal game.

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Zane Gonzalez (ARI): vs. Carolina
ECR Rank: 13
My Rank: 6
Week 3 Finish: Tied #6

Last week I wrote about how there are start similarities to Gonzalez this year and Ka’imi Fairbairn in 2018 based on K Score metrics. The Cardinals have a young QB who moves the ball well but struggles in the red zone, and both Fairbairn and Gonzalez benefit from playing a majority of their games indoors. With an average of 10 fantasy points per week, Gonzo’s ownership is going to continue to rise. Jump on board now before it is too late.

Aldrick Rosas (NYG): Tampa Bay
ECR Rank: 26
My Rank: 11
Week 3 Finish: Tied for #15

Rosas was a bit of a risky pick last week based on the unknowns surrounding Daniel Jones. I anticipated that would be a high scoring game, but I did not anticipate Jones running the offense as well as he did and converting as many drives into touchdowns. Game flow played a part as well, with the Giants falling behind two touchdowns to the Bucs.

Waiver Wired – Top Add

Aldrick Rosas (NYG) vs. Washington: 10% ownership on Yahoo
The Redskins defense just gave up three touchdown passes to Taylor Gabriel and Mitchell Trubisky, while the Giants offense under Daniel Jones looked impressive against the Bucs. Assuming the weather doesn’t get too nasty with rain in the forecast, Rosas could provide a nice floor of extra point production with the upside of a big game.

Other players to consider:

Jason Myers (SEA): @ Arizona 44% ownership on Yahoo
Matt Prater (DET): vs. Kansas City: 34% ownership on Yahoo

View your league’s top available players with My Playbook

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.