I’m not gonna do . . . what everyone thinks I’m gonna do . . . which is like FREAK OUT!
I am always reminded of that classic line from Jerry Maguire after Week 1 of the NFL season because it is nearly impossible not to overreact. Fantasy owners have waited months to get their seasons started, and a single bad performance can make you feel like your team is cooked.
Most of the time, that is not the case. Sometimes, however, a bad performance is worth panicking about just a bit. In this article, we’ll take a look at some troubling performances from Week 1 and rate them on a scale of 0 (You should not be concerned about this whatsoever) to 10 (Oh my goodness, the roof is caving in, and I don’t have homeowners insurance).
Note: we are not talking about injuries here. Of course, you should be concerned about Tyreek Hill and Nick Foles, and it sounds like perhaps Joe Mixon and Tevin Coleman, too. But we are dealing with strictly player performances here.
So let’s get ready to panic. Or not. I mean, it depends on the player. That’s kind of the whole point of this article.
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Aaron Jones (RB – GB) – Panic Meter Rating: 3
Thursday’s game against the Bears was far from encouraging for Jones. He gained just 39 yards on 13 carries and split snaps with Jamaal Williams at roughly a 60/40 rate. So, on the surface, Jones should seemingly rate pretty high on the panic meter.
But even though he gained just 39 yards, Jones showed some burst, particularly in the second half, against an extremely tough Chicago defense. Williams gained zero yards on his five carries (he did have two catches for 15 yards, to be fair), and showed little elusiveness or quickness.
It’s a difficult schedule for Green Bay, which includes games against the Vikings, Broncos, and Eagles in their next three matchups. But in terms of Jones’ outlook, you should not let Thursday’s performance downgrade him too much from your preseason projections.
Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL) – Panic Meter Rating: 9
In contrast to Jones, Freeman’s game against the Vikings should have you highly concerned. Freeman had a consensus ADP of the 18th running back off the board, so fantasy owners drafted him expecting solid RB2 production.
They obviously didn’t get that on Sunday, where he gained just 19 yards on eight carries and lost a fumble, adding just three catches for 12 yards. The Vikings defense is stout, so one bad performance shouldn’t necessarily raise major alarms.
But what should raise alarms is the fact that Ito Smith gained 31 yards on six carries, adding a catch for nine yards. And what should make those alarms ring loudly is that fact that Smith out-snapped Freeman 38-36.
The Falcons were playing from behind and had little chance of winning for much of the second half, so if you want to minimize the snap counts, I understand. But if you were drafting Freeman thinking he would be a solid RB2, personally, I think Week 1 should have you seriously concerned.
Dante Pettis (WR – SF) – Panic Meter Rating: 10
Speaking of snap counts, how do two snaps strike you? Two. Because that’s how many snaps Pettis played in the 49ers’ win over the Bucs on Sunday.
There were plenty of warning signs this preseason with Pettis, most of them written off as a motivational ploy. And Kyle Shanahan claims that Pettis is nursing a calf injury.
Hogwash, I say. For whatever reason, Pettis is in the doghouse. And even if he weren’t, none of the San Francisco wide receivers looked playable anyway after yesterday’s performance. Crank the panic meter up to 11 for Pettis. It’s warranted.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) – Panic Meter Rating: 4
Sanders led the Eagles backfield in carries on Sunday against the Redskins with 11 but gained just 25 yards rushing. Darren Sproles totaled 47 yards on nine carries, while Jordan Howard gained 44 yards on six carries. In addition, both Sproles and Howard caught multiple passes, while Sanders caught just one for two yards.
Why such a low rating on the panic meter then? Well first, Sanders could have had a better line, and had his best (and a lengthy) run called back on a ticky-tack penalty. In addition, Sanders was in on 36 snaps, while Sproles played on 22 and Howard just 17.
Sproles’ role is pretty well-defined, and he likely saw extra work in this one because the Eagles were shockingly significantly behind at halftime. But Sanders is going to be the main guy, and if you watched the game, you saw how much potential he has. We, and surely the Eagles, know who Howard is at this point, and that is not a guy you pick to eat up significant carries.
You may need to be patient. But this performance should not make you strongly doubt Sanders’ eventual ascendancy to reliable fantasy starter.
Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR) – Panic Meter Rating: 5
Everyone’s favorite breakout candidate (not named Chris Godwin, of course), had a very pedestrian day, with just three catches for 32 yards against the Rams. The problem, however, isn’t so much the catches, but rather the targets.
In a game the Panthers were trailing throughout, Samuel saw just four targets. Christian McCaffrey, unsurprisingly, saw 11, but D.J. Moore saw 10 and Greg Olsen nine. Cam Newton looked off, and perhaps it was just rust. But with dicey quarterback play and a place fourth in line in the pecking order for targets, Samuel could be in some trouble.
To be clear, you should not be dropping Samuel or selling him for cheap. This is just a panic meter. Not a “how fast should I get rid of this player” meter. Deep breaths!
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR) – Panic Meter Rating: 6
I mean, Gurley gained 97 yards on 14 carries with a catch for four yards thrown in. He looked quick and healthy, and all of that is good.
What is not good is 11 carries for 53 yards from Malcolm Brown, including two touchdowns, both of which came from carries near the end zone. Gurley still out-snapped Brown significantly, 52-22, so we are not close to approaching a time-share here. But if Brown is getting the goal-line work in an effort to protect Gurley and his knee, then Gurley needs to be downgraded no matter how efficient he is.
The panic meter is a sliding scale here. It’s based on preseason expectations, so you’d obviously prefer Gurley to Aaron Jones despite the latter being only a three on the panic meter. But in terms of concern about Gurley, his lack of usage on the goal-line raises some red flags.
Jameis Winston (QB – TB) – Panic Meter Rating: 4
Winston was terrible against the 49ers, finishing 20-of-36 for 194 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions. He also fumbled twice, though he lost neither. It was an extremely disconcerting performance in his first regular-season game under Bruce Arians and a new offensive system.
So, yes, if Winston is your only quarterback, you should be concerned. But the bottom line is that when you own Winston, you need to expect games like this. He’s not always accurate, and he takes too many chances. If you’re looking for someone who is going to be reliable and consistent every week, you probably drafted the wrong player.
But there will still be plenty of good times for Winston this season and unlike last year, he doesn’t have a coach who is looking to replace him with a backup at a moment’s notice. Winston will have a long leash and should get better. But with a tough schedule, it’s fair that after Sunday’s performance, he at least registers on the panic meter.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.