Last year in week 5, Robby Anderson and Tre’Quan Smith scored over 24 points each and Julio Jones had 8.7. At the same time, players like Isaiah Crowell and T.J. Yeldon finished as top-five running backs and Alvin Kamara was held to 5.4 points. Eric Ebron was the TE1 and C.J. Beathard was the QB10. Every week can have drastically different outcomes.
The upcoming predictions may seem far-fetched and we certainly don’t expect all to come true, but with looking at some trends and tendencies, they have a chance of shattering projections. Last week Bobby was able to see that Fournette’s massive usage was ready to break through and hit the nail on the head with him finishing as a top-five running back.
1. Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) will be the RB1 and score over 30 half-PPR fantasy points.
Did you know that Elliott has yet to breach a week’s top-five RB finish and is also yet to break 20 half-PPR fantasy points? Not awful performances but also not ideal for those who spent high on him this year. Get ready for that to change against the Packers. Green Bay has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs while at the same time giving up the very fewest to wide receivers! This should lead us to expect the Cowboys to take what the defense gives them and pound the rock relentlessly being home-field favorites; while Rodgers and the Packers are able to keep it a close game.
Final Prediction: 21 carries, 150 yards, 4 receptions, 35 yards, 2 total TDs
2. Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN) and Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) will each finish as a top-15 WR.
Kirk Cousins has been less than great through four weeks, totaling only three touchdowns on the year and averaging 184 YPG. The Vikings now get the Giants in Week 5, who have the third-most fantasy points given up to wide receivers. The G-men especially struggled against the likes of Amari Cooper and Mike Evans, perhaps implying talented receivers are especially able to capitalize on their coverages. Both Diggs and Thielen were visibly upset after the Bears matchup and both the Vikings and Cousins took notice of their shortcomings, hopefully to the point of addressing it. They will still hinge on the run game, but this may be a rare bright spot for what is looking to be a long, hard year for the Viking’s passing hopes.
Final Prediction: Diggs (8 rec, 130 yards, 0 TD), Thielen (6 rec, 85 yards, 1 TD)
3. Tom Brady (QB -NE) will finish as a top-three fantasy QB.
Brady’s finishes week-by-week are QB7, QB4, QB13, and QB27. Last week’s matchup against the Bills’ stout pass defense was rather predictable but he gets a far better look this week. The Redskins have a weak pass defense and are better equipped at stopping a team’s rushing production as opposed to passing. Not only that, but they are currently playing depth-chart carousel at their own quarterback position, which will lead to many advantageous field positions for the more than capable Patriot’s defense. He likely won’t have outstanding yardage, but the scoring will be there.
Final Prediction: 24-for-31, 270 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT
4. Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN) finishes as a top-five WR.
Week 5 can’t come soon enough for the Bengals who were just dismantled by the Steelers last Monday night. With the third-highest Vegas point total this week at 47.5, there should be scoring to go around. Boyd will get to face the Cardinals who are still without star corner Patrick Peterson and has been averaging 10 targets a game. Both A.J. Green and John Ross are out so he should be set up nicely for a big bounce-back outing as the focal point of Dalton’s targets.
Final Prediction: 13 targets, 9 receptions, 140 yards, 1 TD
5. David Montgomery (RB – CHI) will see 25 touches and find the end zone.
While I am still far lower on Montgomery this season than most, the situation on Sunday is too obvious to ignore. Montgomery’s snap share percentages have gone from 38% to 44% to 67% to 69% in consecutive weeks since the opener. Now the Bears just lost their starting quarterback to injury and are still five-point favorites against the Raiders, who have just lost starting linebacker Vontaze Burfict to a year-long suspension. Sprinkle in the fact that the Bear’s defense will likely overwhelm the Raider’s offense and keep it as a positive game script, and everything points to the Bear’s run game in this one to keep some pressure off of Daniels.
Final Prediction: 22 carries, 70 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 20 yards
The Other Half
6. Eric Ebron (TE – IND) will be a top-five tight end.
Playing catch up; KC has been poor against TEs.
Final Prediction: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 40 yards, 2 TDs
7. Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) will have nine receptions.
Playing catch up; Mack is banged up.
Final Prediction: 9 receptions, 75 yards, 2 carries, 10 yards
8. Carolina’s D/ST will be a top-two defense versus Jacksonville.
Carolina quietly has allowed the fewest passing yards per game; Minshew-Mania hits a wall.
Final Prediction: 13 points allowed, 6 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 interceptions, 0 TD
9. Will Fuller (WR – HOU) goes over 100 yards.
Fuller currently has the 12th most targeted air yards on the year – between Cooks and Godwin; ATL has let a WR hit big each of the last three weeks.
Final Prediction: 10 targets, 7 receptions, 115 yards
10. Sammy Watkins (WR – KC) will end his drought and find the endzone again.
IND averages 16 half-PPR points to opposing teams WR1.
Final Prediction: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and stay golden!