I challenge you to submerge yourself into a debate regarding any running back of your choosing. What is one of the first statistics discussed to evaluate said player? It does not matter if it is brought up as a positive or negative, but I can say with confidence that yards per carry will be one of the first statistics mentioned.

Why though? It is easy, that’s why. It’s a simple statistic to point to when attempting to show the effectiveness of a runner. With that said, is it really making a point? I have an issue when it comes to any statistic simply showing an average. This includes yards per carry, yards per reception, and even yards after contact.

For example, Damien Williams had a respectable 4.5 yards per carry average in 2019. Stacked up against the best of the best, this looks great on paper. Despite what fantasy owners saw as an uninspired season, he managed to match the likes of Ezekiel Elliott (ranked 5^th in PPR) and Dalvin Cook (3^rd) and even edged out Chris Carson (10^th), Leonard Fournette (6^th), and Joe Mixon (17^th), to name a few. However, when you dig a little deeper, it’s easy to see that this 4.5 yards per carry average was greatly propped up by just a handful of long-distance runs.

So, what really matters for high-end running back fantasy output? While a higher yards per carry is never frowned upon, it still remains that opportunity is key.

Let’s look at some data for the top-24 PPR running back seasons over the last 4 years (96 data points). Below you can see a few graphs showing PPR points per game vs rushing attempts per game, PPR points per game vs yards per carry, and attempts per game vs yards per carry. Ideally, we want to see if any of these show a strong R squared (as close to 1 as possible) to show some type of correlation, even though it is very difficult to have a strong correlation while only looking at 2 variables.

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Based on the above information, while certainly not as strong as we would like, it is evident that usage ultimately has more of an impact on fantasy points than yards per carry and yards per carry actually has close to no correlation to usage.

What can we actually do with this information? One goal that every dynasty fantasy football player should have going into each offseason is identifying potential breakout and bounce back candidates that can be acquired at a reasonable price which results in increasing dynasty value. In order to do so, we must make some assumptions. We are never going to be able to predict consistency or even yards per carry on a yearly basis. What we can do, however, is make an educated guess when it comes to usage and situations.

Below is the list of all running backs over the last four years that saw at least 240 carries in a season.

40 of the 43 running backs that saw at least 240 carries in a season over the past 4 years produced top 24 PPR fantasy numbers. I am not saying that rushing attempts are the only factor at play when attempting to predict high-end production. Clearly there are going to be players that crack the top-24 and even top-12 by being heavily utilized in the passing game, see Duke Johnson in 2017 (82 carries), James White in 2019 (67 carries), and even Theo Riddick in 2016 (92 carries). While there is certainly more than one path to running back fantasy relevance, usage might be the easiest to predict based on personnel and situations.

one of the three running backs that had over 240 carries in 2019 but did not manage to end the season as a top 24 PPR running back really stands out to me. David Montgomery certainly was not a running back I had my eye on heading into 2019 and I was not actively looking to acquire him at any point during the 2019 season.

David Montgomery only managed 3.7 yards per carry in what many would call a stale offense that lacked creativity, but the workload is undeniable. There are a couple of things that I am looking at when it comes to David Montgomery and an attempt to predict another sizable workload in 2020.

The first thing is Chicago’s available salary cap space and their 2020 draft capital. With the limited available cap space (29th with $13.6M available) heading into 2020, it would be surprising to see the Bears look to acquire any of the available free agent running backs. I also find it very unlikely that the Chicago Bears spend either of their two second-round picks, which are their only picks in the first 3 rounds, on a running back. With Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen both under contract to round out the running back room, David Montgomery will once again have ample opportunity in 2020. One major problem that should be focused on in the 2020 draft is the woeful offensive line.

Per Football Outsiders, the Chicago Bears ranked 29^th in adjusted line yards (3.86) in 2019. While David Montgomery left a lot to be desired last season, he certainly received no help from the offensive line.

If the Bears can improve in that area even a little bit, with the workload we can expect, David Montgomery is an absolute steal at his current DLF ADP of RB24 and should be closer to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of dynasty RB18. As many things in the NFL are random and extremely unpredictable, one thing that we should feel somewhat comfortable about is chasing volume, which makes David Montgomery an intriguing dynasty buy at his current price.

Note: PPR Rankings from fantasypros.com, adjusted line yard info from footballoutsiders.com, salary information from overthecap.com, and additional statistics from pro-football-reference.com.

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John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive or follow him @TheBauerClub.