One of the first tips you’ll hear when it comes to fantasy football draft strategy is to wait on filling the quarterback position. There are few articles that illustrate why this is an effective strategy more than Mike Tagliere’s Boom, Bust and Everything In Between on the QB position.
That’s all well and good, but there’s still the question of which quarterbacks to target as you wait on the position. We’re here to help with just that, as our writers provide their top late-round quarterbacks to target in 2020 fantasy football drafts.
For the purposes of this article, we’re looking at QB13 or lower based on our half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR).
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Q: Who is your favorite late-round quarterback target?
Jared Goff (LAR): QB16
How quickly things change in fantasy football. Just two years ago, you could’ve put McVay and Goff on the presidential ballot. Now, they’re chopped liver? I refuse to believe it. Things certainly went haywire for the Rams offense in 2019 and it all stemmed from its horrid offensive line. The running game suffered and Goff was under duress more often. Goff isn’t an improviser and needs things to be on schedule to be at his best. But I’m betting that improved offensive line play will help restore the good times of “The Greatest Show on Turf Part II,” even if Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks are out of town. I’m also betting on McVay bouncing back schematically.
Does Goff have top-five upside at the position? Probably not. But he’s being disrespected as the QB16 in our Expert Consensus Rankings. An honorable mention: Teddy Bridgewater. He has great weaponry at his disposal and could thrive under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s passing game.
– Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)
Jared Goff has the most upside of any quarterback on this list past QB13, and it’s not a debate. He could easily lead the league or finish top three in passing yards or passing attempts after tying Jameis Winston for the most passing attempts with 626 passes in 2019. Goff has thrown 54 touchdowns in 26 games and with Todd Gurley out of town and running back by committee approach coming; he could throw a career-high in touchdowns. His current high is 32 touchdown tosses (2018), and last year his 22 were a career-low as a full-time starter.
With Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee out wide, he has viable options to have another strong season, but the lack of offseason moves and the offensive line’s struggles to allow pressure is worth noting. The Rams didn’t do much to address any needs, nor did they get undoubtedly worse with the losses of Brandin Cooks and Gurley. Goff finished 30th with 22 sacks taken last year, ranking 30th, and out of quarterbacks that started more than eight games, he ranked third in being the least aggressive taking shots downfield (12.8%) and finished with a career-high 16 interceptions. At 25-years-old, Goff is worth being a QB1 based on his volume and FantasyPros model; he’s going to finish top five in pass attempts, completions, and yards.
– Vaughn Dalzell (vaughndalzell)
Gardner Minshew (JAC): QB22
The quarterback with a 98.8 QBR inside the pocket on throws of 20+ air yards in 2019, second only to Patrick Mahomes, is being drafted as QB22 based on FantasyPros ADP. Folks, it’s about time we start giving Gardner Minshew II the respect he deserves.
As a rookie last season, the sixth-round pick out of Washington State impressed by finishing as QB19 in 14 games, going 6-6 as a starter for the lowly Jaguars. He threw for 3,271 yards and 21 TDs with only six INTs. He also showed ability as a runner, adding 344 yards on the ground in 67 rush attempts. With the departure of Nick Foles this offseason, Jacksonville’s coaching staff has given Minshew a huge vote of confidence. He’s the uncontested starting quarterback this season. Additionally, the team added some weapons for Minshew to work with via free agency (Chris Thompson and Tyler Eifert) and the draft (Laviska Shenault Jr. and Collin Johnson).
New Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has been impressed with what he’s seen from Minshew so far. “He has shown a skillset where he can sit in a pocket, step up, make things happen outside the pocket,” Gruden said in late May, per NFL Network’s Michael Giardi. “He’s accurate, he’s tough and obviously he’s a great leader, so he’s got the intangibles you want in a quarterback.”
Handed the keys to the castle, Minshew has a golden opportunity to become the Jaguars’ quarterback of the future. His rushing ability will provide fantasy managers with a relatively high floor compared to other guys drafted around him, but it’s his underrated ability as a passer that can propel Minshew into QB1 territory in 2020. Consider this: Minshew (19.71 PPG) averaged just 0.7 fewer fantasy points than Kyler Murray (20.41 PPG) last season, yet Murray has a QB4 ADP. The current disconnect between Minshew’s fantasy value and ADP is astonishing.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
Philip Rivers (IND): QB24
This is probably going to be the most boring pick on the list, but it’s hard to pass up the production Rivers offers late in drafts. After a down year in 2019, he’s being drafted as a back-end QB2 in 12-team formats. That’s perfect for me. Rivers is getting up there in age, but he is reuniting with Frank Reich in Indianapolis and will have a much better offensive line in 2020. All he needs now is for those Colts weapons to stay healthy. Being able to grab 4,500 yards and 30 touchdown passes from my backup quarterback near the end of the draft allows me to focus on other positions earlier in the draft.
– Mike Maher (@MikeMaher)
Joe Burrow (CIN): QB20
The Cincinnati Bengals are likely to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. They have a defense that was 25th in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed and there is a good chance they will be behind early and often in 2020 because of their lack of a quality defense. That is not a bad thing from a fantasy perspective when it comes to Joe Burrow. Falling behind quickly means more passing attempts. Even if the score is lopsided early, garbage time fantasy points count as much as fantasy points earned in competitive games.
Burrow is the 20th ranked fantasy quarterback and last year that was Gardner Minshew II with 3,271 yards passing, 21 passing touchdowns, and 344 yards rushing. That is a very low floor with the Bengals having A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Tee Higgins in the passing game. They also have Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard at running back to balance out the offense. Given all the skill position talent surrounding Burrow, there is an excellent chance that he does very well, even if that does not translate into a lot of Bengals wins. I love his value as the 20th ranked quarterback and 135th overall player.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Baker Mayfield (CLE): QB18
Mayfield is currently 18th among all quarterbacks in the latest ECR. He threw for 3,827 yards and owned a 22:21 TD:INT ratio across 16 games, finishing 19th out of all quarterbacks in total points. The Browns fired head coach Freddie Kitchens and brought in Kevin Stefanski, whose zone-blocking/play-action scheme should help Mayfield this season. Cleveland brought in RT Jack Conklin and drafted Jedrick Wills to shore up the offensive line. Mayfield is ready to put 2019 behind him and has reportedly shown great leadership this offseason. The 25-year-old has an arsenal of weapons in Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, and Kareem Hunt to help him break out this season. I think fantasy owners everywhere were a year too early on Mayfield. Everything is in place once again for Mayfield to break out in 2020 and finish as a borderline top-10 fantasy QB.
– Brad Camara (Beerad30)
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