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ADP Risers & Fallers: Early September (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Sep 4, 2020

The best fantasy drafters capitalize on shifts in player value. A guy who is a first-rounder one week may become a second-rounder the next, and you’ll want to know when to buy and when to sell. You’ll also want to know when a player’s price has risen far past what you should be paying.

As a result, you should keep careful track of each player’s average draft position (ADP). FantasyPros’ ADP tool will help you track differences between sites — ESPN’s rankings may lead to one player going earlier than at, say, Yahoo, and that’s something you’ll want to know as well.

To help you keep track of the trends through the start of the season, I’ll be providing updates every two weeks. Here are the key takeaways for the top-80 players in case you haven’t drafted quite yet!

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Player ADP (8/26) ADP (9/2) +/-
Miles Sanders 14.7 13 1.7
Austin Ekeler 16 15 1.0
Josh Jacobs 17 15 2.0
Aaron Jones 19 17.7 1.3
Odell Beckham Jr. 31.3 29.7 1.6
Chris Carson 34.3 32.3 2.0
Zach Ertz 39.3 37.7 1.6
James Conner 46.7 42.3 2.7
Calvin Ridley 44.7 42.3 2.4
Cam Akers 66.3 63 3.3

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) 
People are drafting Sanders like he’s a workhorse, but he’s not. Head coach Doug Pederson routinely uses committee backs — since 2016, only Sanders has earned more than half of the snaps in a given year, and he played more than 85 percent of the snaps on only one occasion. Boston Scott is going to keep seeing plenty of touches, so be careful before you commit to a high-upside committee player as your RB1. You can get workhorse Josh Jacobs for less.

The Round 2 Running Backs: Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC), Josh Jacobs (RB – LV), and Aaron Jones (GB – RB)
As the season approaches, there’s been an overall trend toward running backs. I don’t think that’s anything to do with these three players — there aren’t any camp headlines or injuries to explain these trends. While it’s always smart to secure at least one running back in the first two rounds, take note of these rising ADPs. They may help you get a high-end wide receiver like Davante Adams or Julio Jones in the second round.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE)
Beckham’s ADP has been on the rise since mid-August. He sat at 33 on August 12th, but he’s now up to 29.7, good for a total increase of 3.3 points. I have mixed feelings about Odell. On the one hand, he’s bound for positive touchdown regression with his current workload; on the other hand, there’s no guarantee that new head coach Kevin Stefanski will call enough passing plays for that to materialize. I don’t know if I’d prefer Beckham to guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Calvin Ridley, so I’ll probably pass on him at this price.

Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
I’m not surprised to see Carson’s ADP on the rise. Despite the Carlos Hyde signing, he’s the unquestioned lead back in Seattle. Carson ranked third in terms of the median percentile of exceeding expected yardage, which proves that he is an efficient back. Even better, Seattle’s third-most 481 rushing means that he’ll keep getting the work needed to post an RB1 result. Keep drafting him at or before his ADP.

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
Ertz has been getting undervalued this offseason. People forget that the Eagles love to target their tight ends — Ertz earned 135 last year (12th overall), and teammate Dallas Goedert had 87 (58th overall). Yes, they added Jalen Reagor in the offseason, but he’s hurt, and so is Alshon Jeffery. Marquise Goodwin also opted out. All signs point to the Eagles continuing to throw to their tight ends, so you should buy Ertz even with his surging ADP.

James Conner (RB – PIT)
Conner’s ADP is finally approaching his ECR. His ECR moved up from 44.1 to 42.8 since mid-August, so I’m not surprised to see his ADP responding to that increase. Pittsburgh is going to get back on track this season, and Conner is just one season removed from a 215-carry, 71-target performance. The Steelers backups had their chance to separate themselves from Conner after he went down last year, but they failed to do so, so Conner should continue to be the featured back barring injuries.

Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Let’s go! I’m very high on Calvin Ridley this season, and I think he can finish as a WR1. Under offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the Falcons will continue to rank in the top-five in passing attempts, and that means plenty of looks for the former first-rounder. That said, he doesn’t have as much floor as some of the guys going around him do. To compensate for the risk, you’ll need to take a high-floor guy like Jamison Crowder to pair with him, but you should feel comfortable drafting Ridley even if his ADP continues to rise.

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
Akers saw the biggest jump of any player on this list. Darrell Henderson‘s injury is the likely cause, as Akers’ main competition for carries might miss Week 1. The Florida State product ranked highly according to David Zach’s fantasy Z-score, and he topped both J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift because of his athleticism and backfield situation. The Rams’ offensive line leaves much to be desired, but there’s a good chance that Akers leads the Rams’ backfield in carries by a wide margin. The Rams attempted a middle-of-the-road 401 rushing plays, and a bit over half of that would be enough for Akers to return fantasy value.


Player ADP (8/26) ADP (9/2) +/-
Alvin Kamara 4.7 5.3 -0.6
Davante Adams 10.3 11.3 -1.0
Tyreek Hill 13.7 14.7 -1.0
Julio Jones 14.7 16.3 -1.6
Lamar Jackson 20 21.3 -1.3
Le’Veon Bell 35.3 38.3 -3.0
Leonard Fournette 29.3 42 -12.7
A.J. Green 67.3 69.5 -2.2

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Kamara did not have a good week. After some unexcused absences from practice, the running back has returned now that he and the Saints are hammering out a new contract. The trade rumors seem overblown at this point; it sounds like the Saints wanted to gauge all of their options before committing serious money to the star rusher. All things considered, a 0.6-point drop isn’t too bad. If you can get Kamara at sixth or seventh overall, do it without hesitation.

The Round 1 Wide Receivers: Davante Adams (WR – GB), Tyreek Hill (WR – KC), and Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
As the second-round running backs trend up, the first-round receivers trend down. While it still makes sense to anchor your team around running backs in PPR leagues, Adams, Hill, and Jones all offer floor that you may not find with similarly-priced rushers. I can’t get that excited about backs in probable timeshares like Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, and to a lesser extent, Nick Chubb. Consider passing on one of them to lock down your WR1 instead — it’s now even cheaper to do so.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)
Jackson flipped with Patrick Mahomes and is now the QB2. That makes sense, as Mahomes is the more proven passer, and because he has the stronger all-around receiving corps. I’m not a huge fan of taking a quarterback before the third round, so I’ll recommend that you pass on both Mahomes and Jackson at their current ADPs — you can get a better positional advantage by taking a tight end that early instead. Unless he suddenly drops into the early third round, you should avoid Jackson in 1QB redraft leagues.

Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ)
Where to begin. The New York media is trying its darndest to spin the relationship between Bell and Adam Gase as toxic: overthinking a rep that Bell took with the second-team offense, blowing a dispute over hamstring tightness out of proportion, and celebrating a now-canceled trade for Kalen Ballage as proof of their fractured ties. Maybe I’m just a Bell truther, but it sounds like Gase is just trying to avoid overworking Bell and limiting his late-season production — that’s what Gase says, anyway. Using him as a receiver, as is the plan, would be a great way to preserve his health without jeopardizing his fantasy output. You should draft Bell everywhere at his current price; he may not be an RB1 anymore, but his volume should catapult him to finish as a high-end RB2.

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
If you thought that Bell and the Jets had a bad week in the press, Fournette and the Jaguars had a much worse time. Jacksonville parted ways with the former first-round pick, allowing him to sign with the cross-state rival Buccaneers. I don’t know what we can expect out of Tampa’s backfield this season, as Ronald Jones and Dare Ogunbowale should continue to see carries alongside Fournette. If this backfield is anything like it was last year, it’ll take an injury to make me feel comfortable starting any of these backs. You should hold off on drafting Fournette until all other lead backs (including Ryquell Armstead) are gone.

A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
Green is currently limited at practice with a hamstring injury. The star wide receiver has struggled through numerous injuries in recent years, and it looks like this year will be no exception. While he can return high-end WR1 value when healthy, he offers you no floor — last year’s full-season absence proves that. If you want a share of Cincinnati’s offense, just take Tyler Boyd (69.5) instead — he’ll cost you the same exact price.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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