Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a helpful strategy all DFS players should look to take advantage of. It can help when weighing competing lineup options for any given week. A high over/under total can clue us into contests Vegas projects to have a high combined score. More opportunities for scoring can lead to increased opportunities for fantasy points.
Small point spreads show us which games Vegas projects to be competitive. Competitive contests suggest that the game script will not force either team to abandon the run or the pass. Large point spreads, on the other hand, suggest that the team with a large lead may look to run out the clock in the second half, or in some cases rest their starters as the game winds down. For the team that is behind it means that they may be forced to abandon the run in favor of being more aggressive through the air in an effort to put points on the board quicker.
High total contests can also alert us to potential chalky plays. While analyzing Vegas odds should not be the only tool you use to decide on roster options, it should, along with a host of other variables, play a correlative factor in your decision making.
This week we will take a look at a pair of contests with two of the highest over/under totals of the week. The Las Vegas Raiders will take on the Panthers in Carolina, and the Seattle Seahawks will travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Both contests are currently listed above 47.5 based on BettingPros consensus odds.
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At running back Christian McCaffrey is the obvious play. He could actually be more explosive in 2020 than in 2019, and all eyes will be on the wrinkles Joe Brady uses to get the ball in his top playmaker’s hands. His cost makes him tricky to roster, but more often than not, he can help lead you to being in the money (if you hit elsewhere).
Josh Jacobs should be even better as a sophomore. A Week 1 matchup against a depleted Panthers defense makes him a potentially underrated DFS play. While the Raiders did spend a concerning amount of their offseason resources bringing in pass-catching options to the backfield, the jettison of Lynn Bowden leaves reason for optimism. Jacobs could set a career-high in receptions in what should be an expanded role in the passing game this week. His lack of receptions in 2019 could cause many to fade him, making him one of the moderately rostered options that could provide huge dividends.
The quarterback position also gives us two attractive options in Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr. While Las Vegas versus Carolina does not scream shootout, the total is set high here for a reason. The Panthers have a depleted defense, and the Raiders have an inexperienced secondary. Both make for fine plays if you are trying to fit in salary elsewhere, and should be strongly considered by those looking to set multiple lineups.
Wide receiver also gives us some intriguing options in what could prove to be a high scoring affair. The defense could get sloppy in Week 1, and D.J. Moore and Henry Ruggs stand to be the primary beneficiaries. Both receivers are expected to be their team’s top targets on Sunday and could rack up the yardage for their respective teams.
Elsewhere at the position, both Bryan Edwards and Robby Anderson present some appeal. Salaries were set well before these two receivers emerged as their team’s number two receivers. This allows them to be plugged in rather inexpensively while tapping high priced options in other roster slots.
At tight end, Darren Waller has his obvious weekly appeal. He may see his target share scaled back a bit, but it may not be by as much as many fear. He should be featured in Week 1 as one of the top pass-catching options and is an interesting play in what is projected to be a high scoring affair. The Panthers defense projects to take a massive step back at covering linebackers and could be a team to target week-to-week. Ian Thomas has some appeal for multiple lineup setters, but for others, a wait-and-see approach as to how involved the tight end will be in Joe Brady’s offense is recommended.
At wide receiver, the Seahawks stack looks extremely enticing. Facing off against a cornerback duo with some serious question marks, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf could feast in Week 1. While the Falcons cornerback room has been remade, I would be remiss not to mention that Lockett recorded 100 receiving yards and that Metcalf found the end zone twice against the Falcons last season. Both receivers deserve heavy consideration for your Week 1 lineups.
Atlanta presents another intriguing stack possibility. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley figure to be worth stack consideration on most weeks, and Week 1 is no different. Jamal Adams adds some juice to the secondary, but he will not be the primary man in coverage off the line of scrimmage. Julio, we know, perennial All-Pro who is a weekly threat to put up the top fantasy numbers at his position. Calvin Ridley had some success against the Seahawks last season but will look to better his performance with Matt Ryan under center.
At quarterback Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are productive enough to garner weekly consideration. While neither quarterback is matchup proof, both signal callers have plus matchups in Week 1. Russell Wilson should be able to decimate the Falcons secondary if he is allowed to, while Matt Ryan has two stud receivers who are weekly 100 receiving yard threats. Matt Ryan was injured for last season’s meeting between these two teams, so we have no recent matchup history to lean on.
The running back options from this contest project as interesting plays if for no other reason than that they do not project to be chalky plays and play for explosive offenses. Todd Gurley is priced rather reasonably for a projected 15-20 touch running back in an explosive offense. Chris Carson is banged up, so all eyes will be on practice reports the rest of the week to determine whether or not he deserves to be in consideration for at least one of your lineups.
Hayden Hurst is extremely interesting. Very reasonably priced for the role he is assuming, Hurst will have a chance to prove that he is indeed a first-round talent. He showed flashes in Baltimore, and falling behind someone who has emerged as one of the best tight ends in the league is hardly an indictment of his own talent.
The tight end situation in Seattle is a little more difficult to decipher as far as pass routes run are concerned, but due to his blocking prowess, Greg Olsen is in line to see the most snaps. Will Dissly could certainly join him in 12 personnel looks but should get some single tight end snaps as well. The presence of the other limits each other’s ceiling and lowers their floors, so they may be better off avoided until a clear target pecking order is established.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
