FanDuel MLB DFS Strategy Advice: Wednesday (9/2)
We have a ten-game slate on Wednesday, and it is absolutely loaded with great mid-tier pitching and tremendous high-end options on the left-side of the infield. There’s also a slew of left-handed pitchers who should be stacked against, which we outline below!
|Cristian Javier (HOU)||vs. TEX||$7,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Kyle Hendricks (CHC)||@ PIT||$8,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Triston McKenzie (CLE)||@ KAN||$8,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Spencer Turnbull (DET)||@ MIL||$8,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
There is so much fantastic mid-tier pitching tonight! My favorite play of the bunch is Christian Javier. He will face the Rangers at home, and the Rangers rank dead last in the league with a 52 wRC+ against RHP over the last two weeks. Yes, the Rangers are 48% below league average at creating runs. Javier has certainly gotten lucky so far this season with a .194 BABIP and 85% strand rate, but he should breeze through this Rangers lineup.
Hendricks gets to face the third-worst lineup against RHP over the last two weeks in the Pirates. The Pirates were just no-hit last week, so we know how dreadful this lineup can be. Hendricks has done better at home (3.29 FIP, .269 wOBA) than on the road (3.80 FIP, .299 wOBA) in his career, but those road numbers are still solid. He had a rough start in his last outing against the Reds, but he’s a level-headed pitcher that should bounce back. Nonetheless, his risk gets bumped to “Medium” as a result.
McKenzie has been transcendent for Cleveland, striking out 13 batters in 10 innings and allowing just three earned runs over his first two major league starts. He gets the Royals on Wednesday, who are in the bottom-third of the league against righties over the last two weeks, but only 14% worse than league average. Javier and Hendricks are more cash-game plays, where as McKenzie makes more sense in a GPP.
Turnbull is coming back from a minor back injury, but faces the dreadful Brewers, who have been 29% worse than league average against righties the last two weeks. Even at home, they are 10% worse than league average in that same timeframe. Turnbull’s risk is highly only due to getting pulled early as a precaution for his injury, but he also makes sense in a GPP since the Brewers strikeout a ton.
Catcher/ First Base
|Carlos Santana (CLE)||@ KAN||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Yuli Gurriel (HOU)||vs. TEX||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|James McCann (CWS)||@ MIN||$2,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Santana appears to have struggled this year, but in reality, he’s just a very similar hitter to his 2018 self. He is still walking a ton (21.6% walk rate this year), and producing exit velocities at his historical levels. He’ll get Jakob Junis on Wednesday, whom he has a .500/.611/.571 slash line against in 14 at-bats.
Gurriel has hit lefties and righties about the same in his career, but this year he is teeing off on lefties (239 wRC+) in a small sample. Luckily, he gets to face LHP Kolby Allard, owner of a 6.50 ERA in 18 innings. Allard was once a prized prospect, but his 6.18 ERA 70+ innings suggests otherwise. Gurriel is a great cash game play.
McCann may not start on Wednesday, but he has certainly done well against Berrios, sporting a .333/.333/.917 slash line against him in 24 at-bats. McCann is hitting the ball hard at optimizing his launch angles, creating success in a backup role this year. He will be minimally rostered if he starts.
|Mike Brosseau (TB)||@ NYY||$2,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Jake Cronenworth (SD)||@ LAA||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Brousseau is an automatic play in GPP when a lefty is on the bump. In 101 at-bats, he has a .317 average, .584 slugging percentage, and 147 wRC+. Oh, what’s that? Lefty Jordan Montgomery is pitching for the Yankees? Oh, perfect.
Here’s your weekly Cronenworth update – his wRC+ is still 192 against RHP this year. He’ll get Julio Teheran on Wednesday, who has a 9.17 ERA in 17 and 1/3 innings this year. He likely won’t pitch deep, but the Angels’ bullpen certainly isn’t menacing.
|Yoan Moncada (CWS)||@ MIN||$3,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Third base is the hardest position to slot in on Wednesday’s slate, as there is minimal upside in the middle of the pack. Moncada represents the best option of that tier, and even he is coming back from an upper leg injury. The foundation of this recommendation comes from what he’s done against Berrios – he has a .308/.379/.654 slash line against him in 26 at-bats.
|Carlos Correa (HOU)||vs. TEX||$3,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Shortstop’s top-tier options are so good that there’s only one value play, and it sticks out like a sore thumb. Correa has a career 140 wRC+ against lefties, with a minuscule 4.3% K-BB rate. All jokes aside, he is hitting slightly better at home, and his 116 wRC+ on the road is no slouch.
|Marcell Ozuna (ATL)||@ BOS||$3,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Brett Gardner (NYY)||vs. TAM||$2,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Jose Martinez (CHC)||@ PIT||$2,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Gregory Polanco (PIT)||vs. CHC||$2,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Ozuna gets the lefty Martin Perez on Wednesday, and he’s crushed LHP to the tune of .290/.345/.504 for his career. The humidor mitigates the hype a little bit, but Martin Perez outweighs any qualms.
Gardner’s matchup may seem very risky on the surface, but Charlie Morton is returning from injury from shoulder inflammation. His fastball velocity is noticeably down, so he’s not the feared pitcher that he has been the last couple of years. Even if Morton was still an ace, Gardner has a .320/.393/.760 slash line against him in 25 at-bats.
Martinez is known as a lefty masher, but he has struggled to do that this season. He has a wRC+ of only 96 against them this year, mainly driven by his 31.6% strikeout rate. However, he knows the NL Central very well, and Derek Holland‘s 7.62 ERA in 28 innings isn’t striking fear in the hearts of anyone.
Polanco’s surface-level stats are absolutely horrific, but the advanced stats (93.5 MPH exit velocity, 55% hard-hit) suggest that major positive regression is in order. He also has Kyle Hendricks’s number, hitting .357/.367/.643 against him in 28 at-bats.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- Trea Turner (WAS) $4,000: Trea Turner is on an absolute heater over the past couple weeks, resulting in having a higher wRC+ than even Fernando Tatis Jr. Oh, and he also crushes Zack Wheeler, hitting .409/.458/.591 in 22 at-bats.
- Francisco Lindor (CLE) $3,300: Yes, Lindor is not having the same type of year as in the past. But, he hits .500/.500/1.031 against Junis in 32 at-bats, including four homers.
- DJ LeMahieu (NYY) $3,400: He’s back from the IL and hit two homers on Tuesday night. He also has a strong .368/.368/.474 line against Morton in 19 at-bats.
- Manny Machado (SD) $3,800: If you are going to make a Padres stack against Teheran, Machado has to be in it. The man is hitting .481/.500/.942 over the last two weeks.
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS) $3,700: High-end shortstops are the premier attraction on Wednesday, and Bogaerts is third in line. He has a 129 wRC+ against lefties for his career, and gets the not-so-good Robbie Erlin.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Walker Buehler (LAD) $10,300: Buehler turned his season around by striking out 11 in his last start, but he’s coming back from a blister and likely won’t pitch deep into the ballgame.
- Dinelson Lamet (SD) $9,300: Lamet looks like an attractive option at this price, but the Angels have surprisingly been tops in wRC+ and walk rate against RHP over the last two weeks. Lamet has below-average command, so this is a good spot to fade him.
- Zac Gallen (ARI) $10,000: Gallen would be highly considered option almost any other night, but he gets the Dodgers on the road Wednesday. The Dodgers are top-two in wRC+ against RHP over the last two weeks, and isn’t an offense I want to bet against.
- Jose Abreu (CWS) $3,600: Wait, bet against Abreu during his insane hot streak? Yes, because he has 12 strikeouts in 38 at-bats against Berrios.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) $3,200: It will be tempting to slot Altuve in at second with an Astros’ stack against Allard, but he just doesn’t look like himself. While never a Statcast darling, he is hitting the ball softer and striking out much more. He’s even struggling against fastballs, which he’s historically feasted on.
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