Generally, reaching for a player is not a great move. Using your own rankings, the average draft position (ADP) of the site host that you are using to draft, and what you know about your league mates, you should be able to get a sense of when a player will be drafted. Waiting as long as possible to snag your draft targets maximizes the value you get out of each pick.
However, sometimes you don’t want to run the risk of missing out on one of your top targets. In those cases, you will likely need to reach a round or two in order to guarantee you land your player.
Along these lines, our writers provide the players that they are willing to reach for the most this fantasy football draft season.
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Q: Which player are you willing to reach for the most in 2020 fantasy football drafts?
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL)
There’s a ton of WR value around Brown’s 74th overall ADP, so I’m not going to reach irresponsibly for him. Yet given all the buzz brewing around the second-year wideout, I’m prepared to jump a round earlier if necessary. While Brown flashed tantalizing upside and found the end zone seven times in 14 games as a rookie, he also recorded just 46 receptions on 71 targets. When given the chance, per PlayerProfiler, he averaged a healthy 2.25 yards per route run. After bulking up during the offseason by gaining 23 pounds with a 4,000-calorie-per-day diet, he should serve as Lamar Jackson’s true top wide receiver rather than a one-dimensional deep threat. If his opportunities expand, Brown has legitimate WR1 potential.
– Andrew Gould (@AndrewGould4)
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
You can’t let yourself take sleepers too early. The higher a player is taken, the more production the player must have to justify the ADP. Sleepers need to be taken at the appropriate round to avoid being overpriced or a fantasy bust. However, there are certain players that you know have an excellent chance to break out, and it’s worth taking them even a round or so early to ensure that you end up with them. Dobbins has become one of my favorite players this offseason. On a team loaded with physical freaks like Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown, He has been able to stand out for his exceptional athleticism. He was one of the most productive players in college through the last three years, as he finished with 5,104 yards from scrimmage and 43 touchdowns over the last three seasons. He was both a skilled runner and receiver, and he should be able to contribute immediately in both the running and passing game.
Mark Ingram is going to be the starter early, but he has had injury issues in his career, and he will turn 31 years old this year. All signs are pointing to Dobbins having flex appeal early with a role that expands as the season progresses. I’m not going to use one of my first five picks on Dobbins in redraft leagues, but if I have to take him a round or two earlier than his RB33 and 85th overall ranking, I am more than willing to reach for him. He’s a player who could end up being the starting running back on one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. As a starter, Dobbins could have RB1 value as one of the most productive players in fantasy football.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)
Josh Jacobs will be a top-five fantasy running back in 2020. I’m even willing to advocate selecting Jacobs as early as 1.04 (after Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott go off the board). Hear me out: through the first twelve games of 2019, the Raiders rookie was RB10, despite (1) playing in an offense that finished 24th in total points, and (2) catching only 18 passes. For the season, Jacobs averaged nearly the same fantasy points per game as Alvin Kamara, despite Kamara (1) playing in an offense that finished third in total points, and (2) catching 81 passes. Let that sink in. While you do, let me remind you that no running back forced more missed tackles last season than Josh Jacobs, despite the fact that he missed three games due to injury.
Betting on Jacobs to finish within the top-five fantasy running backs this season hinges on two assumptions: one, that Las Vegas’s offense will improve some in 2020 (which I believe), and two, that Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game this year (which he believes). Remember, the Raiders were a top-ten team in run percentage in 2019, and I don’t anticipate that changing. Don’t let Jacobs fall to some opponent in your league midway through Round 2 because the draft client says that he’s the “best available.” Go out and get him as early as you need to in Round 1.
– David Giardino (@davidgiardino)
Zack Moss (RB – BUF)
I’m reaching for Zack Moss everywhere with the belief that he will not only see the majority of the goal-line touches in Buffalo, but also that he will take the lead job at some point. The Bills expect him to fill the “Frank Gore role” this season. I think he takes more. There are already reports that Devin Singletary has been fumbling in practice after he fumbled four times in 12 games last season, and Moss has even been seeing work in the passing game. Overall, I think Moss is the better back and the better fit, and I think the Bills know it.
– Mike Maher (@MikeMaher)
James Conner (RB – PIT)
It’s no secret this year that, as we get a few rounds into drafts, the quality of running backs drop off a cliff while wide receiver maintains an abundance of value. While I’ll never go in with a fixed strategy, the relative positional scarcity leads me to often prioritize running back early, followed by hammering wide receiver in Rounds 4-8. The key to making that work? James Conner. Conner’s ADP has risen throughout the summer, as Mike Tomlin reminds the public that he’s entrenched as the lead back and will be on the field for the majority of snaps in 2020.
Since Conner was a top-10 running back midway through last season, even with Ben Roethlisberger absent, the only real concern, albeit a legitimate one, is injury. I believe that comparative injury likelihoods are somewhat exaggerated, however, and it’s not significantly more likely that Conner misses time than anyone else you’d be drafting. In any regard, you’d get to play a replacement in any of those weeks (grab Benny Snell; he’s effectively free), and I’m happy to take a solidified RB1 while the wheels are on. Here’s a take: James Conner will well outscore Aaron Jones this year, and you should be comfortable taking the Steelers running back in the second round.
– Peter Gofen (@PeterJaguars)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Sure, incumbent starter Marlon Mack will get the first crack as the lead back to open the season, but when head coach Frank Reich and the Colts’ coaching staff catches a glimpse of what Wisconsin rookie rusher Jonathan Taylor can do in a live NFL game, it’s going to be hard to keep him off the field. Reich has already pointed out that Taylor will be a “major contributor” in 2020, and we’ve also heard some buzz surrounding the rookie being a candidate to contribute in the passing game.
Remember last season when the Eagles took Miles Sanders in the second round even though they had Jordan Howard as their lead back? Sanders profiled as a complement to Howard, who oddly enough profiles similarly to Mack. It took an injury to Howard to unleash the full-potential of Sanders, but injuries happen in the NFL, especially to aging running backs. Add in the fact that the Colts have the highest-graded offensive line heading into the 2020 season per PFF, and you have a formula for immense success for the rookie running back. Taylor is currently the ECR’s RB19, ranked below both Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Because I want to win my leagues and not just make the playoffs, it’s an easy call to take Taylor over guys like Gurley and Gordon. Come fantasy playoff Weeks 14-16, you better believe this will be Jonathan Taylor’s backfield. Heck, I’d even reach for him at the back-end of the second round just to make sure a guy with league-winning upside is on my roster.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
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