DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 11 (2020)
As both the NFL and our world continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, football can be a healthy distraction, and daily fantasy sport (DFS) sites offer a fun way to get skin in the game. Let’s break down the Week 11 slate at DraftKings.
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from the week before!
Last Week’s Picks
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): 14.7 points (2.63x)
Jordan Reed (SF): 11.2 points (3.2x)
Aside from Lindsay, last week went very well! Reynolds significantly out-performed teammates Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, so he ended up being a slam-dunk value, while Tagovailoa still came near value despite only passing for 60 yards. McKissic hit value for the second week in a row, but I think I’ll pivot onto his teammate this week. Keep reading if you want to find out why!
This Week’s Value Plays
Joe Flacco (NYJ): $5,000 at LAC
Flacco may not be an elite quarterback, but he was serviceable against the New England Patriots in his most recent start. Flacco scored 21.5 DK points in New York’s 30-27 loss, and while he had struggled before that appearance, it was his first time working with the trio of Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman, and Jamison Crowder. The strong-armed Flacco will have all three of them again in Week 11, and with both Mims and Perriman possessing 95th-plus percentile speed, he should get at least one deep score, and that will go a long way to helping him hit value. Also, the Chargers give up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks (22.3), so I’m comfortable projecting Flacco for 15-plus DK points.
Honorable mention: Jameis Winston (NO): $5,900 vs. ATL.
Antonio Gibson (WAS): $5,800 vs. CIN
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. While that’s a great maxim for real life, I want to pivot off McKissic this week and feature Gibson. The rookie running back is averaging 19.3 DKPPG over the last three weeks, which is above his value threshold (17.4 DK points), and I’m comfortable playing him here. The Bengals give up the 13th-fewest DKPPG to running backs, but they also allow the highest percentage of explosive runs per play (16%), and Gibson should be able to break off a big play or two. He also leads this team in carries inside the 20-yard line (19 attempts, 39.6% share) and has four rushing touchdowns on the year, so he has some goal-line pop.
Salvon Ahmed (MIA): $4,800 vs. DEN
Myles Gaskin will miss at least one more game on injured reserve, and the Dolphins just waived Jordan Howard. The team may get Matt Breida back, but after Ahmed’s impressive Week 10 performance, I don’t see how Breida will out-play him. Ahmed just scored 16 points against the Chargers last week, and he’ll need only 14.4 to hit value against the Broncos. Denver gave up 203 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns last week, and they give up the 13th-most DKPPG to the position. It’s not exactly a smash spot, but Ahmed should safely hit value in a banged-up backfield.
Honorable mention: Damien Harris (NE): $5,700 at HOU.
Amari Cooper (DAL): $5,400 at MIN
It wasn’t long ago that you had to cough up $6,500 of your salary cap to roster Cooper. But after their series of quarterback problems, Cooper will now cost you just $5,400, a healthy $600 below the cutoff for a value play. While we don’t know who will get the start for Dallas (Andy Dalton and Garrett Gilbert seem like the two options), Cooper should be in for a big game this week. His opponent, the Vikings, give up the fifth-most DKPPG to wide receivers (44.8), and they don’t have any cornerbacks capable of limiting a player like Cooper. Since the Cowboys are seven-point underdogs, they should be playing from behind, and that means plenty of passing attempts for Cooper to capitalize on. He should be able to hit value at this price.
Willie Snead (BAL): $4,500 vs. TEN
It took me a long time to decide on my last value play. With the Seahawks playing on Thursday Night Football and thus off the slate, I knew I wanted to target the next-worst defense against receivers, and that happened to be Tennessee. The problem? While all of Baltimore’s wideouts are in range to be value plays (Marquise Brown: $5,800, Miles Boykin: $3,000, Devin Duvernay: $3,000), I wasn’t sure which to go with. But Snead has been the best of late — he’s averaging 6.0 targets, 4.7 receptions, 69 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns over the last three games. That’s good for an average of 15.8 DKPPG, which is greater than what he needs to hit value (13.5). I’m not excited about his matchup with Desmond King, but King allowed seven catches for 80 yards last week, so Snead is my favored play here. While I think Boykin could easily nab a touchdown on a handful of catches to hit value, but he’s too much of a bust risk to be a true value play.
Honorable mention: Miles Boykin (BAL): $3,000 vs. TEN.
Logan Thomas (WAS): $3,300 vs. CIN
Thomas was my featured value tight end from Weeks 2 to 4. He failed to hit value in any of those games, so I moved on from him, but he’s scored double-digit DK points in three of his last four games. The targets were always there for Thomas — he averages 5.8 of them per game — but he’s started to catch more of them since Week 6, as his catch rate jumped from 43.8% to 70%. What changed? Dwayne Haskins started all but one game before Week 6, and Thomas has played much better with Alex Smith and Kyle Allen. He should have a big day against the defense that surrenders the second-most DKPPG to tight ends.
Honorable mention: Trey Burton (IND): $3,100 vs. GB.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.