DraftKings Projected Roster Percentage: Week 9 (2020)
Welcome to Week 9! Some teams are passed the halfway point of their season already, and I hope that your DFS ventures have been profitable so far. If not, you’ve still got some time to turn things around, and digging into rostership data is a great place to start.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Russell Wilson is the most popular quarterback this week, and it’s not surprising in a week full of what should be relatively low-scoring matchups. The game has the highest projected point total on the slate (54.5 points), and Seattle is expected to score 28.75 of them. Despite Tre’Davious White‘s elite play at corner, the Bills still give up the 14th-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing signal-callers, and Wilson is a smart play at quarterback here.
After Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray should be the next-most popular plays. Allen makes sense, as the Bills will have to pass a lot to keep up with Seattle’s high-powered offense. It helps that their defense gives up the most DKPPG to quarterbacks (29.1). Mahomes and Murray are both in winnable matchups, too, although their high salaries are a bit of a risk.
Behind them, I like Derek Carr and Justin Herbert. They’re on both sides of what should be a shootout, as neither defense has done a good job at limiting opposing offenses. The Chargers rank fourth-worst while the Raiders rank ninth-worst.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
I hate to break it to you all, but Austin Ekeler isn’t going to play this week. He’s eligible to return from IR, but there’s no reason to believe that the Chargers will activate him before they play the Raiders. Instead of Ekeler, I would roll with Justin Jackson ($4,900) because he’s cheaper and will actually play. The Raiders’ defense has been particularly exploitable on the ground, too, as they rank sixth-worst against the position.
The next two guys, Dalvin Cook and James Conner, will actually play, and they’re both in the 20-30% range. Cook is a fantastic play against Detroit’s second-worst rushing defense, and he could move closer to chalk this week. And while Conner’s opponent, the Cowboys, rank only 14th-worst against the run, Pittsburgh should embrace the run to grind out the clock in a winnable game. That means a ton of points for Conner — unless they sub in Benny Snell.
At wide receiver, I would expect Julio Jones‘ rostership rates to change once we know if Calvin Ridley will play. Since I don’t think he will, I’m expecting Jones to end up being close to chalk. There’s a ton of volume to go around in Atlanta’s passing offense, and as we saw when Jones missed time, the last receiver will standing will get tons of looks.
A few other wide receivers jump out, namely, Danny Amendola and Marvin Jones. The Minnesota Vikings won’t have their three starters from Week 1, and it’ll be up to rookie first-rounder Jeff Gladney and Kris Boyd to limit Detroit’s receivers. Don’t expect them to do a good job; the Vikings give up the third-most points to the position.
Only two tight ends cracked the 10-20% range: Hunter Henry and Darren Waller. While Waller is a reliable, high-volume option, Henry has not gotten much run recently — he’s only caught 3.3 passes per game in the last four weeks. I’m suspicious of his value moving forward, and I’d avoid him even at this price point.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the highest-priced defense in site history against the Dallas Cowboys. It makes sense — we still don’t even know who will start for Jerry Jones’ team this week, and the Steelers average a league-best 4.3 sacks per game. They will score a ton of points here; the only question is whether you can fit them into your lineup.
A pair of contrarian plays should also be relatively popular: Atlanta and Minnesota. The Falcons don’t have a great defense, but Drew Lock hasn’t played like a great quarterback, so you could argue that they’re a good option. The Vikings make a decent alternative, especially if the Detroit Lions are forced to start Chase Daniel.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.