Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 16 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Week 15 was a smash spot on Ball Street. At quarterback, all three of Lamar Jackson (overall QB5, 30.22 FanDuel points), Ryan Tannehill (QB3, 37.02), and Jalen Hurts (QB1, 37.82) put up 30-plus point performances. Each of my “Mid-Cap” plays finished in the top 10 at their positions, with D’Andre Swift (RB10, 20.2), Brandon Aiyuk (WR8, 17.8), and Logan Thomas (TE4, 16.6) all tapping into their underpriced upside. Finally, Cole Beasley (WR17, 15.2) proved a worthy Penny Stock play as he drastically outperformed his price tag on Saturday. While Week 15 certainly had its blunders (Wayne Gallman RB57, 2.9), any week where I land two #1 overall finishers is a win in my book. Let’s ride this momentum into a Week 16 slate ripe with underpriced upside.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 16 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 16.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 16 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Atlanta ($9,400): Since Week 8, the Chiefs’ signal-caller is averaging 366 passing yards and nearly three touchdowns per game. In Week 16, he’ll face a Falcons defense that gives up a league-worst 23.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He’s worth the price tag and then some.
Mid-Cap: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. Green Bay ($7,900): Fresh off a 37-point, QB3 overall performance, I like Tannehill’s upside in a potential shootout sporting a league-high over/under of 56 points.
Penny Stock: Drew Lock (DEN) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($6,800): In ten full games played this season, Lock has two 25-plus point performances as well as two single-digit performances. He’s been the epitome of boom-or-bust, which is why he is priced at such a bargain this week. I’ll happily take the gamble on Lock against the Chargers, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Blue Chip: Aaron Jones (GB) vs. Tennessee ($8,600): With Jamaal Williams looking questionable at best with a quad injury, Jones is due for an elite workload in a plus matchup with the Titans. In games where he has received 20+ touches this season, Jones has averaged 22.5 FanDuel points per outing.
*Mid-Cap: Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs. Denver ($7,000): Despite playing on a pitch count in Week 15, Ekeler should be full systems go against the Broncos on Sunday. Including his limited game, he has still averaged nine targets per game over the past month. He should be able to do some serious damage both on the ground and through the air against an average Denver defense. *Ekeler is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups!
Penny Stock: J.K. Dobbins (BAL) vs. New York Giants ($6,300): Dobbins’ touches over the past three weeks: 11, 13, 15. Simultaneously, Mark Ingram has been a healthy scratch for the Ravens. I expect the trend to continue as Baltimore tries to get the elusive rookie more looks in space against New York.
Blue Chip: Davante Adams (GB) vs. Tennessee ($9,200): Adams has averaged over 22 FanDuel points per game this season, making him the closest to automatic a human can get. Given his cushy matchup with the Titans and the Packers’ implied team total of 29.75 points, pass on Adams at your own risk.
Mid-Cap: Diontae Johnson (PIT) vs. Indianapolis ($6,700): In a season-worst performance for the Steelers’ offense in Week 15, Johnson still posted an 8/59/1 stat line on 13 targets. With his Week 14 in-game benching fully behind him, Johnson offers a world of upside as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target.
Penny Stock: Cole Beasley (BUF) vs. New England ($6,100): Buffalo’s leading slot receiver has seen an average of nine targets per game over the past five weeks. While John Brown is likely to return to Buffalo’s lineup, Beasley offers week-winning upside at a bargain.
Blue Chip: Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Atlanta ($8,800): With more than eight receptions in seven-straight games, Kelce is in the midst of a legendary season at the tight end position. He’s a no-brainer upside play against a soft Falcons defense with Vegas projecting a league-high 32.25 points from the Chiefs.
Mid-Cap: Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. Dallas ($5,700): With Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Goedert has seen 14 targets over the past two weeks. He offers tantalizing upside in a rejuvenated Philadelphia offense in what could be a shootout with the Cowboys.
Penny Stock: Austin Hooper (CLE) vs. New York Jets ($5,100): Finishing as the overall TE9 in Week 15, it’s possible that Hooper is finally settling in after missing some time due to injury earlier this season. He’ll have every chance to capitalize on his opportunities against the Jets, who have given up a league-high 12.1 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Ball Street’s Week 16 All-Upside Lineup
QB – Ryan Tannehill, $7,900
RB – Aaron Jones, $8,600
RB – Austin Ekeler, $7,000
WR – Davante Adams, $9,200
WR – Diontae Johnson, $6,700
WR – Cole Beasley, $6,100
TE – Austin Hooper, $5,100
FLEX – J.K. Dobbins, $6,300
DEF – New York Jets, $3,000
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.