DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Monday (2/1)
Last week was a brilliant week for us, and we’re ready for more action. It looks like the COVID postponements have been stalled for now, and that makes things so much easier on us. There’s a lot to talk about, though, so let’ go ahead and get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
Most Value Per Dollar
Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.
This should be an exciting day of basketball from a betting perspective. We have just two games with spreads higher than six points, with Denver and Milwaukee being big favorites. Every other game is expected to be close, and every total sits above 215 as well.
If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $8,100:
SGA is my favorite per-dollar play on the board, and we’ll discuss that more in the studs section.
Darius Garland (CLE) $5,700:
Garland averaged 34 DraftKings points per game across 34 minutes a night as a starter before getting injured. That makes him way too cheap here, particularly against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Al Horford (OKC) $6,000:
Big Al is averaging 44 DK points per game since returning from injury, and that’s a monster total from a $6K player.
Mitchell Robinson (NYK) $5,200:
Robinson has been a per-minute monster in the past, and we can’t overlook the fact that he’s playing a career-high 29 minutes a night. If he keeps doing that, he’ll be a $7,000 player at some point.
DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,000:
DeRozan always hovers between $7,000 and $9,000. Whenever he’s at the lower end of the spectrum, it’s best to buy low while the stock is at its lowest cost.
Xavier Tillman (MEM) $4,800:
Tillman is starting for Jonas Valanciunas. He’s averaging 29 DK points across 24 minutes a night over his last four fixtures in this role, which is stupendous from a sub-$5K player.
Steven Adams (NOR) $5,400:
Adams is averaging 27 DK points per game for the season, and that’s already a huge total from a $5,400 player. That doesn’t even take into consideration that he faces the worst defense in the NBA.
Luguentz Dort (OKC) $4,200:
Dort regularly plays 30 minutes a night and is averaging over 20 DK points per game for the season. If he just gets hot, Dort is a monster value at $4,200.
Elfrid Payton (NYK) $4,500:
Payton averaged nearly 30 DK points per game in the first three weeks, and this massive price drop makes him a solid GPP option.
Studs Worth Their Salary
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,900: Jokic is a machine right now, averaging 25.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game for the season. That doesn’t even include the 47-point career-high bomb he dropped on Sunday, making Jokic impossible to avoid right now. Not to mention, Detroit surrenders the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers.
- Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800: Doncic is on a similar roll. Over his last 15 games, Doncic is averaging 28.3 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game.
- Damian Lillard (POR) $10,800: Lillard has a usage rate approaching 40 percent, with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. That has led to 50 DK points in five-straight and a ridiculous 68 fantasy points on Saturday.
- Julius Randle (NYK) $9,200: Randle has scored at least 38 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, and that makes him a solid value below $10K.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $8,100: SGA has been scorching hot recently, and he should not be this cheap. He’s scored at least 31 DK points in 10 of his last 12 games while averaging 43 fantasy points per game in that span. We love that against a subpar Rockets defense,
Notable Players to Fade
- Devin Booker (PHO) $8,300: Booker is currently dealing with a hammy issue and enters this matchup questionable. That looks even worse when you consider his struggles with Chris Paul. Why is he $8,300?
- John Collins (ATL) $7,300: Collins has been better recently, but his 32-point average is still lackluster at this cost. He’s had a bunch of duds, and that seems like a strong possibility here against the best defense in the NBA.
- Lauri Markkanen (CHI) $6,800: New York has one of the NBA’s best defenses and should not have issues slowing Chicago down. That’s bad news for a guy who’s never been this expensive.
- LaMelo Ball (CHA) $6,500: Ball has scored 24 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last nine games.
- Kendrick Nunn (MIA) $6,000: With Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro back, Nunn’s usage and minutes are bound to drop drastically.
Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.