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DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Friday (4/30)

DraftKings NBA DFS Strategy Advice: Friday (4/30)

I hope you guys aren’t too sick of me! This marks my first Friday article of the season, and I’m going to close the season writing these out. That has me excited because Friday slates tend to be the largest of the week, with many featured games on the docket. That’s certainly the case here, with eight games in total. That’s the perfect amount, so let’s go ahead and break it down!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Most Value Per Dollar 

I hate to stick with point guards and centers so prominently, but that’s just where the value usually lies. It’s more noticeable on this slate than usual, with many of our picks playing at those positions. It’s easy to understand why though, with point guards and centers dominating the game. That’s just the nature of the NBA right now, and it is what it is.

If you’d like to see more information on how the betting landscape will be for this slate, check out BettingPros.

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

Joe Ingles (UTH) $7,000
It sounds like Utah will be without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell again here, which means Ingles will be the starting point guard. He actually had 14 assists in his first game without those two and was well on his way to another gem on Wednesday if they didn’t have a 50-point blowout. That brings his average north of 30 DraftKings points per game as a starter for the year, and we love him in this ball-handling role.

Jusuf Nurkic (POR) $7,100
We’ve been waiting for Nurk to get a full allotment of minutes, and we’re finally there. He’s played at least 29 minutes in three of his last five games, averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game in that span. That’s the stud we know and love, and he should be able to continue that against a 25th-ranked Brooklyn defense.

Brook Lopez (MIL) $4,500
It used to be Robert Covington as my go-to guy, but Bro-Lo has usurped him as my most recommended player. The big man is averaging nearly 30 DK points per game since the beginning of March, and it’s laughable that these DFS sites continue to keep him below $5K. We adore the matchup with the Bulls, too, with Chicago surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Darius Garland (CLE) $8,000
Now that Collin Sexton is missing games, Garland is running the show for the Cavs. That has allowed Garland to score at least 33 fantasy points in 13 straight games, averaging 39.4 DK points per game in that span. That alone makes him worth it at this price, and we love that he faces a Washington team that ranks 26th in total defense and first in pace.

Andre Drummond (LAL) $7,500
The Kings just allowed the Jazz to drop 154 points on Wednesday, and it makes them the best matchup in fantasy. They actually had the worst defensive rating in the league before that, and that’s big news for a resurgent guy like Drummond. The big man is averaging 38 DK points per game across his last six outings, which is not far off of his 45-point average before he was traded.

Rudy Gobert (UTH) $8,600
Gobert just dropped 38 fantasy points in just 23 minutes on Wednesday. That sort of game shows how scary he can be, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in all but one game this year en route to a 41-point average. The Suns look like a tough matchup, but Rudy has at least 41 fantasy points in their two matchups this year.

Ja Morant (MEM) $8,500
It’s hard to avoid a guy who’s on a heater like this. Over his last six games played, Ja is averaging 26 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. That makes him one of the best options in fantasy, and it should be easy to duplicate against a Magic team that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

Alex Len (WAS) $3,300
It’s all about minutes when evaluating a guy like Len, and it appears the Wizards want to make him their go-to center. He’s played 48 combined minutes over the last two games, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in both of those. That’s a ridiculous total from such a cheap player, especially against a 23rd-ranked Cavs defense that plays so many bigs.

Dejounte Murray (SAS) $7,500
Now that Derrick White and Patty Mills are out, Dejounte is doing more than ever in his career. That has led to him scoring at least 31 DraftKings points in 17 of his last 18 games, combing for 47 points, 27 rebounds, 16 assists, and four steals over the last two games.

Lou Williams (ATL) $5,200
It’s crazy how shorthanded Atlanta is right now. They could be missing Trae Young, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic in this game. If even three of those guys are out, Williams will be one of the focal points of the offense. That was certainly the case on Wednesday, starting at point guard and playing 31 minutes.

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day partner-arrow

Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Russell Westbrook (WAS) $11,000: This guy is impossible to avoid right now. He’s essentially a guaranteed triple-double at this point, achieving one in 18 of his last 23 games. He’s providing 60 DraftKings points per game across his last 26 outings, too, and certainly won’t struggle against a subpar Cavaliers defense.
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,100: It’s been a slow ramp-up for AD in his return to action, but he’s seen his production creep up in all four games he’s played. Strangely, it’s gone up 10 fantasy points in each of them, finishing with 44 DraftKings points in the most recent outing. That makes AD really tempting here, with Sacramento surrendering 154 points on Wednesday and owning the worst defense in the NBA before that.
  • Kevin Durant (BKN) $8,900: KD has at least 45 DK points in his two games since returning, and he’s going to be that sort of guy as long as he’s healthy. He actually got his minutes up to 33 in the most recent game, and if we get that, Durant is hard to fade. We love the fact that Portland ranks 29th in defensive efficiency too. If KD sits and Kyrie Irving returns in this B2B, Irving would become one of the best values on the board.

Notable Players to Fade

  • Deandre Ayton (PHO) $6,500: Ayton has fewer than 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and he’s don’t that way too much this year. That terrifies me against a Top-5 Jazz defense, with the Defensive Player of the Year candidate covering him. These teams are actually battling for the top-seed in the west, likely leading to a defensive struggle as well.
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC) $5,400: To say Whiteside is in the doghouse would be an understatement. He had some nice games filling in for Richaun Holmes last week, but he’s actually received three straight DNPs since then. That makes this pricing difficult to figure out.
  • Lauri Markkanen (CHI) $4,200: It’s sad what the Bulls have done with this youngster. He’s been out on the backburner because of Nikola Vucevic and Daniel Theis, averaging about 20 minutes a night in this bench role. He’s certainly not thriving in this role either, averaging just 16 DK points per game across his last 12 outings.

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Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. Our Lineup Optimizer allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players. We’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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