1QB Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (2021 Fantasy Football)
Now that the NFL draft is behind us it’s time to add landing spots to the mix and do another dynasty rookie mock draft. Check out my pre-draft version here if you haven’t seen it yet, just to get an idea of what may have changed. Once again I will be using the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator and will be picking from the seventh spot to try to see how players may have benefitted from having draft capital and landing spots figured out. So without further ado, let’s get into it!
1.01 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
1.02 – Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
1.03 – Travis Etienne (RB – JAX)
1.04 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX)
1.05 – Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
1.06 – DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)
1.07 – Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
1.08 – Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
1.09 – Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI)
1.10 – Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)
1.11 – Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)
1.12 – Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
The first few picks are pretty close to the same as before, and at 1.07 I’m able to grab DEN RB Javonte Williams again. He’s going to play behind veteran RB Melvin Gordon but there is a solid chance that he becomes the starter at some point in 2021 and holds on to the job for years to come. I loved Williams before the draft and his landing spot on increases his value in my eyes.
Someone who fell out of the first round after the draft was QB Trey Lance. Even though he was the third QB taken in the NFL draft, going to the San Francisco 49ers, he falls to QB3 in this draft. Lance is someone that has a lot of raw talent but his upside could be limited if he’s rushed onto the field. Going to the 49ers could mean that he’s going to start sooner rather than later, and that worries me a little bit. For me, I’m not spending a 1st round pick on any QB in a 1QB format, especially Trey Lance.
On the other hand, a riser in this draft was Chicago QB Justin Fields. Before the draft, he went at 2.04 but now he goes at 1.12. This is largely due to the fact that we know what team he’s on now. I’ll be honest, I don’t mind it. As I said, I don’t like taking QBs in the first round except in SuperFlex drafts, but Fields has a lot of upside with his strong arm, along with a solid floor as a runner. He could be a great pick at 1.12, even in 1QB drafts.
2.01 – Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)
2.02 – Terrace Marshall (WR – CAR)
2.03 – Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ)
2.04 – Trey Lance (QB – SF)
2.05 – Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG)
2.06 – Jermar Jefferson (RB – DET)
2.07 – Trey Sermon (RB – SF)
2.08 – Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ)
2.09 – Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
2.10 – Tylan Wallace (WR – BAL)
2.11 – Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
2.12 – Mac Jones (QB – NE)
The second round brings some talented names but you can already see the quality in these picks being a few tiers lower than those in the previous round. Three quarterbacks go in this round, which isn’t really all that common in 1QB leagues, but it goes to show just how low some of the other rookies are being valued in this range.
At my 2.07 pick, I decided to take a player who went in the first round before the draft in SF RB Trey Sermon. Sermon arguably landed in one of the best places for a running back in fantasy, but the sheer number of RBs already on the roster is likely what makes his value take a dive now. RB Raheem Mostert is likely the starter, but Sermon will have to contend with RBs Jeff Wilson, Jr, Wayne Gallman, and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell to get on the field. Could be tough.
One shocking pick here was how early the simulator selected Detroit Lions RB Jerman Jefferson. In most rankings, Jefferson isn’t a 2nd round pick at all, but here he goes ahead of other RBs like my pick in Trey Sermon and presumptive backup to CMC, RB Chuba Hubbard in Carolina. I would easily take those two over Jefferson, but stranger things have happened, and that’s what doing these mocks is supposed to prepare you for. Chaos is always an option.
3.01 – Tamorrion Terry (WR – SEA)
3.02 – Dyami Brown (WR – WAS)
3.03 – Amari Rodgers (WR – GB)
3.04 – Jaret Patterson (RB – WAS)
3.05 – Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
3.06 – Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)
3.07 – D’Wayne Eskridge (WR – SEA)
3.08 – Seth Williams (WR – DEN)
3.09 – Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
3.10 – Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU)
3.11 – Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)
3.12 – Davis Mills (QB – HOU)
Two tight ends go off the board in the third, along with the sixth QB overall in Davis Mills. It’s clear that the talent pool has already reached backup levels here. UDFA WR Tamorrion Terry goes at 3.01, well ahead of my 3.07 pick in WR D’Wayne Eskridge, even though both are now on the same team. Terry is a risky option since he doesn’t have any draft capital, but his raw abilities could be better than Eskridge’s overall.
Speaking of Eskridge, he was the easy pick for me at 3.07 here. I was hoping that either Dyami Brown or Amari Rodgers would make it to me, but both went off just before my turn. Eskridge is someone who I think could see the field early and show his talents often, largely based on the weak WR group that the Seahawks have heading into 2021. Eskridge could be a stud or a dud, but at 3.07 I’m fine to start swinging for the fences.
4.01 – Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
4.02 – Kylin Hill (RB – GB)
4.03 – Javian Hawkins (RB – ATL)
4.04 – Tutu Atwell (WR – LAR)
4.05 – Anthony Schwartz (WR – CLE)
4.06 – Kyle Trask (QB – TB)
4.07 – Shi Smith (WR – CAR)
4.08 – Sage Surratt (WR – DET)
4.09 – CJ Verdell (RB – UDFA)
4.10 – Demetric Felton (WR – CLE)
4.11 – Hunter Long (TE – MIA)
4.12 – Kellen Mond (QB – MIN)
There are a lot of familiar faces in the fourth round of this mock that were in similar spots before the draft. RB Kylin Hill is a round lower, likely due to the fact that he’s playing behind RB Aaron Jones and RB AJ Dillon on the Packers. QB Kellen Mond sees almost an entire round bump up, likely due to the fact that he’s now backing up veteran QB Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. In these two cases, landing spots loudly dictated where they should be valued.
For me, at 4.07, I decided to select Panthers WR Shi Smith. Carolina drafted WR Terrace Marshall in the second round of the NFL draft, reuniting him with his former OC at LSU in Joe Brady. While everyone is drooling over this connection, I am more interested in seeing what that may mean for sixth-round draft pick Shi Smith out of South Carolina. Smith could see the field in 2021 and once he does he may never go back to the bench, he’s just that talented.
To that point, in these later rounds of any rookie draft, I am always looking at the upside more than safety. Give me the riskier options with higher ceilings over safer players with higher floors. The hit rate on a sixth-round NFL draft pick succeeding is almost as low as the hit rate for fourth-round dynasty rookie picks. Why not swing for the fences, right?
5.01 – Marquez Stevenson (WR – BUF)
5.02 – Dazz Newsome (WR – CHI)
5.03 – Pooka Williams Jr. (RB – CIN)
5.04 – Ihmir Smith-Marsette (WR – MIN)
5.05 – Josh Palmer (WR – LAC)
5.06 – Rakeem Boyd (RB – DET)
5.07 – Jaelon Darden (WR – TB)
5.08 – Marlon Williams (WR – HOU)
5.09 – Master Teague (RB – UDFA)
5.10 – Larry Rountree III (RB – LAC)
5.11 – Jake Ferguson (TE – UDFA)
5.12 – Chris Evans (RB – CIN)
The final round is here! Again, there are some familiar names, but the main thing that surprises me is that once again, a UDFA player was selected before the drafted player at the same position on the same team. This time it’s Bengals RBs Pooka Williams and Chris Evans. It’s hard to see either one being dynasty-relevant without an injury to star RB Joe Mixon, but someone will have to fill the Gio Bernard role as pass-catching back on the team. The team preferred Evans for that since they drafted him, but bringing in Williams is an interesting development.
We also see two currently unsigned players in this area in RB Master Teague and TE Jake Ferguson. Selecting free agents with your last round rookie pick isn’t a bad idea if you are a believer in the talent, but it’s definitely riskier than selecting someone actually on a team. I would rather spend one of my few draft picks on a player more likely to actually score fantasy points on the field, but I get it.
For my final pick, I decide to select speedster WR Jaelon Darden who was drafted by the Buccanneers. Darden is small but very fast and elusive. It’s already been mentioned that he will return kicks for the Bucs, meaning he will immediately get playing time and be able to show his talents on the field. This is exactly what I’m talking about when I mention upside. To me, Darden is one of those guys that I will plant my flag on and be excited about as his career takes off. Perhaps my favorite pick in the entire draft.
Now that it’s over, let’s review how I did. I started with two terrific RB options in Javonte Williams and Trey Sermon. Both of these guys could be flex candidates in multiple weeks in 2021 and both have the potential for long careers, even for running backs. My WR group of Eskridge, Smith, and Darden is almost entirely made up of upside guys with lots to prove. This is exactly how I like to draft. Give me solid options at the top and let me get a little riskier as we go along.
Let me know how I did on Twitter, @AndrewHallFF, and stick with FantasyPros through the rest of the offseason leading up to Week 1. There is plenty of analysis, rankings, and ADP data to check out, and it’s always updated with the latest to help you win your title and dominate your own league!
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