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Fantasy Football Superflex ADP Analysis (2021)

by Matt Barbato | @realmattbarbato | Featured Writer
May 7, 2021

With the 2021 NFL Draft over, we now have a firm idea of what teams will look like entering training camp. Sure, we may see a few cuts and tweaks between now and August. But as of right now, we have enough information to start seriously planning for the upcoming fantasy football season.

To start my planning, I like to take an occasional glance at Average Draft Position (ADP). Now, I definitely don’t treat ADP like gospel. However, it is a useful tool for gauging what the rest of the fantasy universe is thinking. My first exercise of the spring is to take a look at the ADP in Superflex leagues. Here are some of the biggest takeaways from my deep dive.

All ADP data comes from Fantasy Football Calculator. 

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Who’s the QB2?

Since this is a Superflex ADP analysis, I have to lead off with some thoughts on the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes is obviously the QB1. But after Mahomes, it gets a bit murkier.

According to ADP, the current QB2 is a disgruntled Russell Wilson. Behind him is Dak Prescott, who is returning from a torn ACL, Kyler Murray, last year’s QB2, and Deshaun Watson, who I don’t want any part of at the moment.

Quarterback is still a deep position, but sorting out the quarterbacks who go after Mahomes might be a little trickier than in years past. You may notice a name that I didn’t mention in the aforementioned group. That’s a perfect segue into my next point.

How is Josh Allen the QB6? 

Do you know who could be a good candidate to follow Mahomes in drafts? How about last year’s QB1? How on earth is Josh Allen going behind the four guys listed in my earlier point. Even more interesting is that Allen is remaining on the board into Round 3 on average. Watson, despite his legal issues, is going at the top of Round 2 as the QB5.

Now, obviously, this isn’t the sharpest draft data, as practically nobody has conducted drafts this early in the spring. But even with this sample size, I’m shocked that Allen isn’t going as a top-five quarterback.

Is the fantasy community expecting a regression? Or are there people out there who think Allen’s incredible season was a fluke? I won’t overreact to May ADP data, but I can’t help but raise those questions.

Your RB10 as of now is…

David Johnson. No, I’m not joking. David Johnson is being drafted in the middle of Round 4 as the 10th tailback off the board, ahead of Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, and Antonio Gibson.

I know it’s early May. I know it’s a small sample size. But in what world is Johnson one of the first 10 backs off the board in any draft, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson? That should correct itself come summertime, as I expect a ton of hype to be generated for all of the guys mentioned in the paragraph above.

Justin Jefferson’s ADP is shocking

Jefferson is being drafted in Round 11 as the WR22. That simply won’t be the case come summertime.

I get it, Jefferson still has Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, and he’s got Adam Thielen alongside him. Yet Jefferson was the WR6 last season as a rookie under those same conditions.

Jefferson should see his stock soar as we get closer to fantasy draft season. In my mind, he should easily be a top-10 receiver and go before Thielen.

Main takeaway: Take these ADP numbers with a grain of salt 

Throughout the analysis, I saw plenty of players get severely undervalued. For instance, Justin Herbert was being drafted at the end of Round 10, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. I mean, come on! That’s just not going to happen when more drafts take place.

So, while it’s good to get a gist of what the market is thinking, keep in mind that things will change between now and when you sit down for draft day. That’s why it’s critical to check up on ADP periodically to stay updated on how the market is changing.

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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with Starting Your Own Fantasy Football League or head to more advanced strategy – like What is the Right Amount of Risk to Absorb on Draft Day? – to learn more.

Matt Barbato is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato