Redraft season is upon us, which means it’s time to mock our socks off! I used our incredibly intuitive DraftWizard to conduct this mock draft. It allowed me to draft against real experts for an actual test of strategy. I recommend that you make it a part of your fantasy football draft prep for 2021!
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There are nearly limitless customizations you can make within the DraftWizard, but here is the framework I worked with:
- 12 Teams
- Snake Draft
- Half PPR Scoring
- Starting Rosters: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 DST, 1 K, & 7 Bench
- Randomized Draft Position = 7th
Here are my results, pick by pick.
Picks 1.7 (7th OVR) & 2.6 (18th OVR): Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) and Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
Use mock drafts to try different strategies. We are talking about practice man, practice, PRACTICE! When you mock draft, you should be testing various approaches in an effort to perfect the skill of assembling a winning roster. I went against the consensus — to leave the first two rounds with a running back — in this mock. Instead, I drafted a pair of wide receivers to see how well zagging when the rest are zigging could work in 2021.
Passing on Davante Adams for Tyreek Hill seventh overall wasn’t easy. Adams had a monster 2020, but with so much uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers’ future, I went with the security of the Kansas City offense. I followed Hill up with Atlanta’s new WR1, Calvin Ridley, to give my team a dominant one-two punch at wideout.
Picks 3.7 (31st OVR) & 4.6 (42nd OVR): Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) and David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
Best on the board until Round 4. Three straight wide receivers? Yes. I firmly believe in drafting the best player available in the first three rounds. It doesn’t matter which positions you get points at; all fantasy points are created equal. Terry McLaurin at WR13 was too good to pass up. He will have the best quarterback of his short career (Ryan Fitzpatrick), should get targeted well over 100 times, and has the fifth-easiest strength of schedule for a receiver in 2021. The only other option I considered was George Kittle, but Kittle’s health concerns broke the tie.
Somewhere between ZeroRB and Balanced drafting. The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Case and point, here I am in Round 4, and I’m the manager without a running back on my roster. It wasn’t intentional, but I ended up missing out on the first 19 rushers. Surprisingly, I didn’t feel too bad about it.
Enter David Montgomery. He isn’t the perfect first running back, but he will do. He had the fourth-most carries and fifth-most receptions among running backs in 2020, good enough to finish as the RB4 in half-PPR scoring. He comes with a safe RB2 floor, but Tarik Cohen’s return caps his ceiling, as does the arrival of Damien Williams. In hindsight, I still feel like there are more questions about the four running backs selected between 32nd and 41st than about Montgomery.
Picks 5.7 (55th OVR) & 6.6 (66th OVR): Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) and Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Safe touch count running backs provide stability. I recently posted an article about running backs expected to see fewer carries, and Josh Jacobs made my list. So why did I draft him in Round 5? While I do think Kenyan Drake will cut into Jacobs’ workload in 2021, I still believe that Jacobs will receive at least 60% of the ground game in Las Vegas. And if you put the Raiders at 400 running back rushes, that would give Jacobs 240 carries on the campaign. That would’ve been good for the sixth-most touches last year. And after taking three wideouts with my first four picks, I could use all the carries I could get my hands on.
Mahomes-ish without the luxury tax. Who was the quarterback with the most fantasy points per game (minimum five starts) in 2020? Not Patrick Mahomes. He finished a close second to Dak Prescott. Dak’s coming-out party was rudely interrupted by a gruesome ankle injury in Week 5. Typing this in June, all signs point to a full recovery and expected training camp participation for the Cowboy cornerstone. Five thousand yards and 35 touchdowns are well within reach. He is my QB5 in fantasy behind the four who preceded him in this mock. I don’t always take a quarterback early, but the move made sense for me here.
Picks 7.7 (79th OVR) & 8.6 (90th OVR): Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) and Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU)
Find weekly matchup-based FLEX options. After filling my starting wide receiver and running back slots, my attention turned to potential FLEX plays. Some fantasy players would opt for low upside, steady contributors like Melvin Gordon III or Tyler Boyd at this point in the draft. However, I took a more aggressive approach by trying to fill my next few spots with players who could go off any given week. That would help me separate myself from my weekly opponent.
In his eight games played last season, Raheem Mostert averaged 13 carries and two receptions. Fifteen touches should be enough to put him comfortably inside the RB3/FLEX line every single week. Also, Mostert was coming off ten touchdowns in 150 touches in 2019. He has been incredibly productive when healthy regardless of his matchup. Rookie Trey Sermon will compete for snaps, but Mostert’s nose for the endzone will help offset any playing time he loses.
By now, you have heard the stat. Brandin Cooks has finished as a WR2 in five of the last six seasons, one of just seven players to do so. Of course, unlike the others, Cooks has done so with four different quarterbacks throwing his way. I briefly considered adhering to the pick predictor, which suggested taking Curtis Samuel or Marquise Brown over Cooks here. I assume it had a lot to do with Deshaun Watson’s off-field concerns. Houston has many problems, but targeting Brandin Cooks will not be one of them. Negative game scripts could help to swell his workload. It’s rare to find such a high volume, big talent receiver with an ADP of 88. Yet Cooks is a true fantasy asset regardless of who starts under center for the Texans in 2021.
Picks 9.7 (103rd OVR) & 10.6 (114th OVR): Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) and Logan Thomas (TE – WAS)
Boring bye week fillers are necessary. Gus Edwards was the RB35 in half PPR last year. Using our Boom Bust Report, Edwards finished in the top-36 running backs eleven weeks last season. He is a boring but valuable asset for your fantasy team. Few rushers drafted after pick 100 have the floor that Edwards does. Couple that consistency with the potential boom that would come with an injury to J.K. Dobbins, and you have found a gem in Round 9. There wasn’t another RB in this range I considered, and I wasn’t disappointed when James Conner and Kenyan Drake came off the board beforehand.
Get “your guy.” Outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, I will wait at tight end and get my guys late. The earliest tight end I have circled is Logan Thomas. Last year, Washington relied on him where it mattered most — in the red zone. He caught the second-most passes inside the 20-yard line at his position, with 16 red zone receptions. Those came with three different quarterbacks under center. Now, the Football Team will turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick to stabilize the position, which can only help keep Thomas regularly involved in the offense. His ADP rests at 105, but he has gone as high as 46 (must have been a TE-premium league), so I couldn’t risk losing “my guy” over the following 13 selections.
Picks 11.7 (127th OVR) & 12.6 (138th OVR): Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI) and Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ)
Invest in the player opposite of a dominant WR. From Week 10 on, Darnell Mooney ranked second in snaps per game (51), utilization percentage (13%), and points per 100 snaps (16.7) amongst Bears wide receivers behind Allen Robinson II. Mooney turned his usage into a strong finish as the WR35 from Weeks 12-17. How Chicago chooses to handle their quarterback situation will factor into his 2021 contributions, as Justin Fields’ has more big-play ability than Andy Dalton. John Brown, Gabriel Davis, and Kadarius Toney were all selected in proximity to Mooney. That said, Chicago’s second-year receiver should outscore everyone in that draft grouping.
Use ADP to your advantage. John Q. Public isn’t following the daily NFL transactions ticker closely in June, but you should be. If you were, you would have seen that Jamison Crowder and the Jets agreed to a reduced salary number for 2021. Crowder, at 28, should act as Zach Wilson’s veteran security blanket. He is a steal at his ADP in PPR formats, and he is no slouch in half-PPR, either. Crowder went off for 14 or more fantasy points in half-PPR in five of his twelve starts last year. His ADP will climb this summer. I also considered Darius Slayton and Emmanuel Sanders here. I believe will both outperform their ADP.
Picks 13.7 (151st OVR) & 14.6 (162nd OVR): Salvon Ahmed (RB – MIA) and Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
Extract value wherever you can. Myles Gaskin is the presumed lead back in Miami. However, Salvon Ahmed proved his fantasy worth last season by eclipsing the 12-point mark in half PPR three times in six games. With Gaskin going 101 picks earlier, it could be Ahmed who blows away his cost in 2021. For me, Ahmed should be selected just after the viable top handcuffs Latavius Murray and Alexander Mattison, who went 129th and 144th overall, respectively.
Swing for the fences. At this stage in the draft, you want to maximize upside by selecting players who could fall into a prominent role or who could prove their doubters wrong as a post-hype sleeper. New York Giants tight end Evan Engram fits the latter profile. Heading into 2018, Engram was touted as the next breakout tight end, and he went early and often in fantasy drafts. Now, after struggling to stay on the field, he is coming off a 16-game, 109 target season and is available at the end of every draft. He is still only 26, so the breakout potential remains. No risk, all reward in Round 14.
Picks 15.7 (175th OVR) & 16.6 (186th OVR): Indianapolis Colts (D/ST) and Jason Sanders (K – MIA)
Only if you must. A kicker and a defense/special teams were required in this draft. They may not be in your league. If you have the option not to select them and your draft occurs early enough to allow for adds/drops before Week 1 — don’t draft them! Instead, stash away a running back in a committee or a rookie with the opportunity to earn a starting gig this summer. If nothing comes of your two stashes, pickup a kicker and stream a D/ST.
DRAFT GRADE: B+ | 88 out of 100
Overall, I was pleased with how this mock turned out. It was scary exiting Round 3 without a running back, but falling into two high-volume options eased my fears. I love my WR group, especially in a three-wide receiver format. My opponent will be chasing those points, but I will have many options to plug in weekly. This team is close to being complete. For my first mock of the summer, I can’t complain.
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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.
