Average Draft Position, or ADP as it’s known by many, is a great resource as you prepare for your fantasy football draft. It gives you a sense of what players are expected to cost in general, based on how the fantasy community, in general, has drafted. You can find ADPs specific to sites, and you can also check out our consensus ADP which provides the consensus of several ADP resources.
First, we examined running backs our experts like more or less based on their draft-day cost. Today, we’re taking a look at wide receivers Mike Tagliere, Kyle Yates, Dan Harris, and Joe Pisapia are higher or lower on versus our consensus ADP.
ADP and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring formats.
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Players Our Experts Like More Than ADP
Davante Adams (GB)
Expert Consensus WR1 | ADP WR2
If you’re planning on taking a wide receiver in the first round, you’d better make sure he’s going to perform without question. Adams is that player, as he’s performed as a WR1 in 22 of his last 41 games (53.7 percent), which is historically good, and it’s a three-year sample size. During that time, he’s scored fewer than 11.1 PPR points just four times, and once was due to leaving with an injury. As long as Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers, Adams will be a can’t-miss WR1.
– Mike Tagliere
Allen Robinson (CHI)
Expert Consensus WR9 | ADP WR11
While the city of Chicago is elated that Fields is now in town, there’s probably no one happier than Robinson. After playing with guys like Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky for his entire career, Robinson finally has the chance to put up absurd numbers with competent QB play. He’s still made it work and has been a fantastic fantasy asset for many years now, but this has the chance to be special. ARob will still be a very reliable receiver with Dalton behind center this year, but he has the chance to push top-5 WR status as soon as Fields takes over. Robinson’s one of my favorite early WR selections this year.
– Kyle Yates
Julio Jones (TEN)
Expert Consensus WR10 | ADP WR13
The public perception on Jones is that he’s towards the end of his career, but that’s simply not true. In fact, he averaged a career-high 11.3 yards per target during the 2020 season and was the WR13 in half-PPR points per game while ceding plenty of work to up-and-coming superstar Calvin Ridley. It’ll be a similar situation in Tennessee, as Jones will now play alongside what might be the next generation’s Julio Jones, and that’s A.J. Brown. Similar to Atlanta, Jones and Brown are going to cap each other’s truly elite ceiling, but as Jones and Ridley proved last year, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that they’re both top-12 wide receivers, especially when you factor in Ryan Tannehill‘s efficiency. Oh, and stop calling Jones injury prone – he’s played at least 14 games in seven of the last nine seasons, and has totaled at least 1,394 yards in six of the last seven seasons. You don’t do that if you’re injury prone.
– Mike Tagliere
Robert Woods (LAR)
Expert Consensus WR13 | ADP WR19
Woods has done nothing but outperform his ADP every single year for the past several seasons. He’s now finished as the WR10, the WR17, and WR13 the past three years and that was with Jared Goff as his QB. Now, Woods has Matthew Stafford in town and this offense could be on its path to going nuclear. Stafford should lean heavily on Woods this upcoming season and there’s the potential that we see Woods put up career-high numbers across the board. He’s going to be undervalued yet again in 2021 – for unknown reasons – and that’s a perfect situation to add him to your fantasy football roster at a discount. My Very Early Projection: 92-1126-7 receiving.
– Kyle Yates
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Expert Consensus WR22 | ADP WR27
Getting reunited with Joe Burrow is definitely not a bad thing for Chase, as he’s got instant-chemistry upon entering the NFL. The only issue with the landing spot is that Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both there, and both deserve high target totals themselves. Still, that didn’t stop Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup from producing, right? Chase is going to be a fantasy star for a long time.
– Mike Tagliere
Players Our Experts Like Less Than ADP
D.K. Metcalf (SEA)
Expert Consensus WR7 | ADP WR5
When Metcalf came into the NFL, he was considered a “raw” prospect who had plenty of room to grow as a route runner. He’s not only lived up to expectations but has started to exceed them, finishing as a WR2 or better in 50 percent of his games in 2020, which ranked 13th among wide receivers, so the consistency was much better in year two. Then you get his “boom” performances that carry him to the next level, which is why he finished as the WR7 in half-PPR formats. Tied to Russell Wilson as his No. 1 target, Metcalf is one of the safest bets as a top-12 wide receiver.
Keenan Allen (LAC)
Expert Consensus WR12 | ADP WR9
Would you believe me if I told you that Keenan Allen failed to record 1,000 yards last season? It’s true. Despite seeing 147 targets (5th in NFL), he finished with 992 yards (17th among wide receivers). The Chargers offense is surely going to change with Anthony Lynn out of the picture, so the hope should be that they’ll utilize Allen down the field just a tad more to increase his numbers. The good news is that Justin Herbert clearly found his “go-to” receiver, targeting Allen 10-plus times on 10 separate occasions. He’s an extremely safe WR2 based on volume alone, though it may be tough for him to get into the top-tier WR1 conversation seeing he’s never scored more than eight touchdowns.
– Mike Tagliere
Mike Evans (TB)
Expert Consensus WR18 | ADP WR12
What Evans has done throughout his career is no small feat. In his seven seasons in the NFL, Evans has never finished with less than 1,000 receiving yards in any given year. With that being said, he’s a roller coaster to have on your fantasy football roster. Last season, Evans had numerous games where he only had one to three receptions, but he was able to come down with a touchdown on several occasions to save his fantasy output. Evans brings some massive upside based on his size, skillset, and talent. However, fantasy managers need consistency from their WRs if they’re being drafted at a premium price. There’s a possibility that we see Evans move up into the top-12 WRs in ADP by the time draft season rolls around. He’ll provide you with some of those week-winning performances, but that’s too steep of a price for me to get on board with that unpredictability. My Very Early Projection: 70-973-9 receiving.
– Kyle Yates
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Expert Consensus WR27 | ADP WR21
Sure, Lockett finished as the No. 9 fantasy wide receiver last year, but ask anyone who rostered him if he was a WR1. Heck, as them if he was a reliable WR2. The answer would be no, as he finished with WR2 or better numbers just 37.5 percent of the time which was behind players like Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel, John Brown, and Jamison Crowder. How’s that possible? Because 48.7 percent of his production last year came from just three games. He’s going to have massive games, but relying on him as anything more than a volatile WR3 is going to lead to disappointment.
– Mike Tagliere
DeVonta Smith (PHI)
Expert Consensus WR35 | ADP WR30
Smith’s coming off of one of – if not the most – productive seasons for a CFB WR ever. There’s absolutely no denying his talent and how he produced against SEC corners, which projects well for his transition to the NFL. All signs point to Smith being a value this upcoming draft season except for the state of the offense. For Smith to return value, Hurts needs to take a massive step forward as a passer from what we saw last season. In an offense that doesn’t project to pass the ball a ridiculous amount, Smith is going to have to be incredibly efficient to crack the top-30 at the WR position this year. It’s certainly possible due to his talent level, but his current ADP is appropriate, in my opinion. As a FLEX option, you’re able to live with the potential range of outcomes.
– Kyle Yates
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