Average Draft Position, or ADP as it’s known by many, is a great resource as you prepare for your fantasy football draft. It gives you a sense of what players are expected to cost, based on how the fantasy community, in general, has drafted. We offer ADPs for individual sites, and you can also check out our consensus ADP which provides the consensus of several ADP sources.

Today, we’re taking a look at players our experts — Mike Tagliere, Kyle Yates, Dan Harris, and Joe Pisapia — are higher or lower on versus our consensus ADP. You can find their consensus rankings here.

ADP and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring formats.

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Players Our Experts Like More Than ADP

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
Expert Consensus TE4 | ADP TE5

It’s kind of crazy how much Andrews gets disrespected by the fantasy community. He’s tallied 2,105 yards and 20 touchdowns over his first three seasons in the league. That’s the ninth-most yardage by a tight end in the post-merger era during his first three seasons. You know what other tight ends are on that list? George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Kellen Winslow. Sure, the Ravens went out and added some pass catchers, but Andrews is the go-to option for Lamar Jackson over the middle of the field and in the red zone. Health has been the biggest obstacle for Andrews, but if he’s able to stay on the field, he should be the No. 4 tight end off the board.
– Mike Tagliere

Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
Expert Consensus TE7 | ADP TE9

Despite Zach Ertz on the roster and stealing tons of targets, Goedert has managed to rack up 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns over his last 26 games. Had Goedert played all 16 games in 2020, his pace would’ve been 762 yards and four touchdowns, which would’ve been good enough to finish as a top-10 tight end (again, with Ertz around). It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ertz will be off the team soon, which clears a path for Goedert to be among the league leaders in targets for a tight end. It’s a new offense, but Nick Sirianni comes from the Frank Reich tree, which has a history of producing tight end production. Goedert may not be a can’t-miss tight end, but if there’s someone who has top-five upside without being drafted there, it’s him.
– Mike Tagliere

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB)
Expert Consensus TE8 | ADP TE12

Tonyan was a true league winner last season with his emergence off of the waiver wire. He posted an absurd 88% catch rate and reeled in 11 receiving touchdowns! If Rodgers is still the starting QB for Green Bay this upcoming season, Tonyan’s going to be a steal in every fantasy draft he’s selected. We cannot expect that high of a catch rate again and we’re likely to see his touchdown rate come back to average, but he’s got as good of a shot as anyone of returning value week after week. We know he’s got the chemistry with Rodgers to make it happen.
– Kyle Yates

Blake Jarwin (TE – DAL)
Expert Consensus TE14 | ADP TE22

Some will suggest that Jarwin can’t break out as a top-10 tight end in 2021 due to the presence of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup, but that’s not really the case. If you need any proof of that, just look at Dalton Schultz last year. He was Jarwin’s backup, took over in Week 2, and played with a backup quarterback for almost a full season. Still, he finished as the TE14 in fantasy football while having the 13th-most expected fantasy points. With Prescott back under center and Jarwin back to full health, there is breakout potential here. At the very worst, Jarwin will be a streaming-worthy tight end on multiple occasions.
– Mike Tagliere

Players Our Experts Like Less Than ADP

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
Expert Consensus TE5 | ADP TE4

He should be a very good player for a very long time, but we’ve seen highly-athletic tight ends have trouble out of the gate before. In fact, rookie tight ends in general have trouble producing. I want to ask you a question: Since 1998, how many tight ends do you think have topped 627 yards in their rookie season? Two of them. Both of those tight ends saw 115-plus targets, a number Pitts isn’t likely to see with Arthur Smith as the new head coach. It helps that Julio Jones has left town, but don’t forget that ultra-athletic Jonnu Smith saw just 65 targets in Smith’s offense just last year, and he wasn’t a rookie
– Mike Tagliere

Noah Fant (TE – DEN)
Expert Consensus TE10 | ADP TE7

Fant’s had sky high expectations since he came into the league, but he has yet to deliver the consistent production that fantasy managers were hoping for from him. The QB play has certainly hurt him and now he has several other receiving weapons to worry about this year. With Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler, Okwuegbunam, Gordon, and Williams all vying for targets, it’s difficult to find a path for how Fant returns value on his current ADP. He has the talent – we can all acknowledge this – but if he doesn’t get the targets necessary to be a viable fantasy asset, it doesn’t much matter. Unless Fant’s ADP falls outside of the top-12 this year, I’m unlikely to have many shares.
– Kyle Yates

Rob Gronkowski (TE – TB)
Expert Consensus TE16 | ADP TE10

Naturally, we should’ve expected some rust on Gronkowski after taking a year off football. He was a bit slot out of the gate, but was ultimately able to finish as the No. 8 tight end in 2020. That’s not a huge accomplishment or anything, as he still failed to record more than 48 yards in 11-of-16 games, and that’s despite Chris Godwin missing time to injury, and Antonio Brown not joining the team until midseason. We also can’t forget about O.J. Howard, who had more production and targets than Gronkowski when he tore his Achilles. Gronkowski will certainly offer some streamable weeks, but relying on him as your every-week tight end would be a mistake with all the mouths they have to feed in Tampa Bay.
– Mike Tagliere

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
Expert Consensus TE17 | ADP TE26

Ertz’s fantasy value fell off an absolute cliff last season. After being valued highly in drafts all off-season, Ertz went on to finish as the overall TE32. With Wentz now in Indianapolis, who was largely responsible for Ertz’s success, it’s hard to even talk about Ertz as a fantasy-relevant option in 2021. While he’s surrounded in trade chatter, he’s still on this Eagles roster for the time being, which hurts Goedert more than anything. Ertz isn’t worth drafting in 2021 right now.
– Kyle Yates

• 10 Running Backs Our Experts Like More or Less Than ADP
• 10 Wide Receivers Our Experts Like More or Less Than ADP
• 8 Quarterbacks Our Experts Like More or Less Than ADP

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