Week 7 of the NFL season will be a challenging one to navigate for our DFS lineups. There are six teams on bye, including big-time offenses like the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, and Vikings. But, according to Vegas, we are also presented with many heavy favorites, with four games featuring a double-digit favorite.
All of this is a long way to say there aren’t many ideal spots for back-and-forth shootouts, which we crave for our GPP lineups. Even adding in the three island games doesn’t help much with all three games coming in with a Vegas total of 44 or fewer points. So, what that means for our GPP lineups is we might need to eat a little bit more of the chalk than usual and look for secondary options in passing games with favorable matchups to be a little bit different.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 7 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,400 vs. CIN
Yes, Jackson will be a popular option this week with his high floor and upside in one of the better game environments on the slate at home against the Bengals. However, as I mentioned in the intro, we will have to eat some chalk, and the quarterback is one of the positions that I’m willing to do since even chalky quarterback ownership never gets too high.
Unlike last week when Jackson could coast with the Ravens up big, he had at least 20 DraftKings points in every start. A divisional matchup against the Bengals should force the ball into Jackson’s hands more often this week. He has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in each of the last three games against the Bengals and has rushed for 97 yards or more in three of five starts against them.
Matt Ryan (ATL): $5,700 vs. MIA
Ryan and the Falcons’ offense appears to have found their groove after struggling out of the gate the first few games. In his last two games, Ryan has averaged 313 passing yards, and three touchdown passes on his way to 26.8 DraftKings points.
Those were both in favorable matchups (Washington, Jets). Still, this week, he gets another good matchup and game environment against the Dolphins in a matchup with a tight line and relatively high Vegas total. The Dolphins have allowed 313 passing yards (30th) and 2.4 touchdown passes (29th) per game over the last five weeks while ranking 26th Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass, according to FootballOutsiders.
Other notables: Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $6,400 vs. KC, Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $5,500 vs. ATL
FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,800 vs. TEN
I told you we were going to need to go with some chalky options. The Chiefs matchup against the Titans has the highest Vegas total of the week by almost seven points more than the next highest option. So, eat the chalk at quarterback and get different with which receiver to stack with him.
Mahomes has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game this season and faces a very beatable Titans secondary that has allowed 292 passing yards (26th) and two touchdown passes (21st) per game while ranking 27th DVOA against the pass.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,900 vs. WAS
Rodgers has a very reasonable price tag on FanDuel despite playing against one of the worst pass defenses in the league this week. Washington ranks 28th DVOA against the pass and has allowed a league-high 317 passing yards and 2.7 touchdown passes per game this season.
Hopefully, Washington will be able to do enough on offense that forces Rodgers to keep his foot on the gas and propel him to over 300 passing yards and at least three touchdown passes we will need in a GPP.
Other notables: Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $7,600 vs. KC, Matt Ryan (ATL): $7,300 vs. MIA
Running Backs
DraftKings
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,900 vs. SEA
Kamara has one of the best combinations of salary and matchup on the whole week slate in his Monday night matchup against the Seahawks. He has at least 21 touches in four of five games this season and will continue to get fed on the road as Monday night.
The Seahawks have allowed 122 rushing yards (30th) per game this season to running backs and can also be taken advantage of through the air giving up 6.5 receptions (27th) for 60 yards (31st) per game to pass-catching backs. So Kamara could be the Monday night hammer for your GPP lineups.
Aaron Jones (GB): $7,500 vs. WAS
Much focus will be given to the Packers passing game this week against a struggling Washington pass defense. However, that feels like a good time to pivot to Jones and the running game with the Packers as a near double-digit favorite at home.
While A.J. Dillon does eat into some of Jones’ workload, Jones has still had at least 17 touches in each of the last five games. Jones is also part of that Packers passing game, especially near the end zone, where he already has four receiving scores this year. Meanwhile, Washington has allowed three touchdowns through the air to back over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Joe Mixon (CIN): $6,500 vs. BAL, Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL): $6,300 vs. MIA, J.D. McKissic (WAS): $5,000 vs. GB
FanDuel
Derrick Henry (TEN): $11,000 vs. KC
Everybody will want to jam Henry into their lineups, but it becomes a challenge when you start trying to build in his massive $11,00 salary. So, many will likely take the more straightforward bring-back option on the Titans side of a game stack with a Titans wide receiver like A.J. Brown at a much more manageable price to fit. Forget that. Give me the Big Dog.
Henry has topped 113 rushing yards in five straight games and has already had three games with three touchdowns. The Chiefs run defense ranks 31st DVOA and has allowed 4.75 YPC (29th) to opposing running backs this season. I know Henry is getting the ball, the Chiefs know that Henry is getting the ball, but I’m not sure it matters. Jam him in and figure the rest out from there.
James Connor (ARI): $6,500 vs. HOU
Connor has become the grind out the clock and goal line back for the undefeated Cardinals. He should have plenty of opportunities to do both of those things this week at home as a 17-point favorite against the lowly Texans.
To opposing running backs, the Texans have allowed 132 rushing yards (31st) and 1.2 rushing touchdowns (28th) per game over the last five weeks. They rank 29th DVOA against the run and have allowed 5.18 YPC (31st) to backs this season. Looks like another 15-plus carries and multiple scores for Connor this week.
Other notables: Joe Mixon (CIN): $7,200 vs. BAL, Miles Sanders (PHI): $5,900 vs. LV, Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): $5,600 vs. NYJ
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Calvin Ridley (ATL): $6,600 vs. MIA
One of these weeks, Ridley will blow up, so I’m going to keep playing him in GPP lineups until he does. However, it is not like he has been bad with double-digit DraftKings points in all of his games and at least seven reception on double-digit targets in each of his last three games.
The matchup against the Dolphins is favorable as they have allowed 225 receiving yards (31st) on 15.6 receptions (28th) and 1.4 touchdowns (25th) per game to opposing wide receivers. The spike game is coming, and maybe this is the week.
Marquise Brown (BAL): $5,800 vs. CIN
The Bengals’ overall numbers against wide receivers look pretty good this season until you realize they have faced lousy pass offenses like the Lions, Jaguars, and Bears. However, in their matchups against good passing offenses (Vikings, Steelers, Packers), the alpha wide receiver has put up at least 92 yards in each game with three total touchdowns.
Brown has reeled in 17 of his last 20 targets in the previous three games while averaging 84 yards and a score per game during that stretch. You could also consider a double-stack of Ravens wideouts adding in the cheap Rashod Bateman ($3,400), who saw six targets in his debut.
Other notables: A.J. Brown (TEN): $6,300 vs. KC, Sterling Shepard (NYG): $5,600 vs. CAR, Mecole Hardman (KC): $4,300 vs. TEN
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin (WAS): $7,200 vs. GB
McLaurin hasn’t topped 46 yards in either of the last two games, which has been disappointing. However, he has still had 19 targets over those two games and has at least seven targets in five straight outings, so McLaurin still has opportunities.
This week he draws a favorable matchup against a banged-up Packers secondary in a good game environment that should see Washington often pass as a near double-digit underdog. McLaurin could also be an excellent one-off play even outside of a game stack with his target volume and reasonable price tag.
Mecole Hardman (KC): $5,400 vs. TEN
Almost every Chiefs stack will feature either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce or jam in both. We need to get a little different this week in a chalky Chiefs stack. So give some consideration to Hardman with Hill not 100 percent due to a nagging quad injury.
Hardman has plenty of big-play upside for a long touchdown to pay off his modest salary in one play. He has topped 62 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks and could explode if Hill is limited or is forced out of the game against a very torchable (is that word?) Titans secondary.
Other notables: Davante Adams (GB): $9,000 vs. GB, Marquise Brown (BAL): $7,300 vs. CIN, A.J. Brown (TEN): $7,000 vs. KC
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Cj Uzomah (CIN): $3,000 vs. BAL
The popular bring-back option on the Bengals side of a Jackson/Brown stack will be a wide receiver. However, the best spot to attack the Ravens’ pass defense is actually through the tight end position, where they have allowed 7.2 receptions (32nd) for 76 yards (29th) and 0.7 touchdowns (23rd) per game this season.
Uzomah does have a GPP upside game to his credit this season when he put up five grabs for 95 yards and a pair of scores against the Jaguars for 26.5 DraftKings points. He is a low investment pivot off the Bengals wide receivers that could pay dividends.
Other notables: Darren Waller (LV): $6,700 vs. PHI, Robert Tonyan (GB): $3,500 vs. WAS
FanDuel
Robert Tonyan (GB): $5,100 vs. WAS
While I’m totally fine with stacking Davante Adams with Rodgers, that is what everyone else is going to do this week. So, instead, I’m looking to pivot to Tonyan, who has only found the end zone once this season after putting up 11 scores last season.
With Marquez Valdes-Scantling still out and so much attention focused on Adams by opposing defenses, Tonyan could be the beneficiary against a Washington defense that has allowed almost 70 yards (26th) per game to tight ends over the last five weeks. Add in some positive touchdown regression, and we could see Tonyan’s biggest game of the season.
Other notables: Darren Waller (LV): $6,800 vs. PHI, Dallas Goedert (PHI): $5,900 vs. LV
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Giants (NYG): $2,500 vs. CAR
While the Giants defense hasn’t posted big numbers this season, they will get a chance for a spike game against the Panthers, who have allowed 3.4 sacks (30th) and 1.8 turnovers (27th) per game over the last five weeks.
Other notables: Browns (CLE): $3,000 vs. DEN, Cardinals (ARI): $3,100 vs. HOU
FanDuel
Browns (CLE): $3,500 vs. DEN
The Browns are the too cheap defense of the week playing at home against the Broncos on Thursday night. The Broncos just gave up five sacks and four turnovers to the Raiders, and you know the Browns defense can apply a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks with their three sacks per game (3rd).
Other notables: Buccaneers (TB): $4,400 vs. CHI, Giants (NYG): $3,600 vs. CAR
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Brad Richter is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
