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Fantasy Football Buy/Sell/Hold Picks: Week 11 (2021)

Fantasy Football Buy/Sell/Hold Picks: Week 11 (2021)

Whether you’re buying or selling, here’s a list of players to consider making a move on before it’s too late. We wanted to share a special shoutout to friend of the site and fantasy football expert JJ Zachariason. A lot of the stats referenced below were tweeted out by JJ last night in his Sunday Night Football data dump thread. JJ is an awesome Twitter follow in general, but you can’t miss these Sunday evening threads to make sure you get a jump on the upcoming week. Thanks JJ!

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Players to Buy

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
With Jamaal Williams once again sidelined in Week 10, Swift’s usage was outrageous. He received 33 carries and a 25% target share against the Steelers. Only Derrick Henry has been given that many carries in a game this season, and he certainly never hit that target share. Swift’s talent is obvious whenever you watch him play, and he continues to produce for fantasy despite playing in such a bad offense. He’ll be a first-round pick in 2022 fantasy drafts.

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
The massive opportunity finally arrived for Diggs, whose target share checked in at 46% in Week 10. The star wideout certainly took advantage of the exploitable Jets secondary, but it’s the usage that was most encouraging. The Bills’ offense got back on track in this one, and we can confidently view him as a high-end WR1 once again.

James Conner (RB – ARI)
Conner didn’t erupt in Week 10 against the Panthers, likely because the Arizona offense played so poorly without Kyler Murray. This gives us a bit of a “post-hype” buying opportunity. Conner’s usage remained consistent with his monstrous Week 9 (68% RB rush share to 63%, 19% target share to 14%). He’s still a high-end RB2, if not an RB1, until Chase Edmonds (ankle) returns.

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
As of this writing, the belief is that Aaron Jones suffered a sprained MCL in Week 10, but we have yet to hear the results of his MRI. It seems likely that he’ll at least miss a game or two at minimum, which vaults Dillon into high-end RB2 status. The second-year RB totaled 128 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 23 touches against the Seahawks.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Kansas City’s offense finally got back on track in Week 10, which is a great sign for CEH’s fantasy value upon returning.

Players to Sell

T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
Even at his best this year, Hockenson wasn’t performing as a difference-maker in fantasy. Then game Week 10’s goose egg against the Steelers, which was mostly driven by Detroit’s anemic passing performance. That is the issue, though. Hockenson plays on one of the worst offenses in football and is reliant on massive target numbers to post strong TE1 results. In actuality, he’s closer to the bottom of the TE1 rankings than he is to the elite tier.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Gibby put up his first top-12 week of the fantasy season against the Bucs, which makes this a strong time to sell. He was still on the injury report entering this game, despite Washington coming off a bye. Furthermore, the Football Team just hasn’t seen many positive game scripts as they did against the Bucs, and it’s unlikely they see more of them moving forward. Gibson never took on the three-down role we were all hoping he would back in the summer. Use Week 10’s performance as another chance to sell high.

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
After a poor Week 10 showing versus the Vikings, Herbert now has more fantasy performances of less than 15 points than he has games with over 15 points. The Chargers’ offense is exciting from a long-term developmental perspective, but things aren’t clicking right now. Herbert is falling down the QB1 ranks while he endures a sophomore slump.

Player to Hold

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
You don’t need me to tell you that Taylor is a superstar these days, but it’s worth pointing out that his 24.2% target share in Week 10 was a season-high. Indianapolis has fully bought into featuring JT as much as possible, and it’s quite possible that he’ll be the consensus 1.01 in 2022 fantasy drafts next season.

A.J. Brown (WR – TEN)
Brown isn’t necessarily a “buy” coming off his Week 10 dud versus the Saints, but fantasy managers also shouldn’t be panicking. He was matched up with star corner Marshon Lattimore, and Tennessee’s run-first offense has always limited AJB’s opportunities. He typically thrives on efficiency, which has proven to be a more volatile proposition in 2021. His talent keeps him in the low-end WR1 conversation moving forward.

Cordarelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
If you just look at Patterson’s Week 10 playing time without context then you might come away a bit concerned. He had his lowest RB rushing share of the season in addition to his second-lowest target share of the year. This was due to game script, however, as Week 10 got away from the Falcons in a hurry. Continue to value C-Patt as a low-end RB2 moving forward.

Mark Ingram (RB – NO)
Ingram received 87.5% of the Saints’ RB share in Week 10 against the Titans. He also earned a 21.2% target share, operating as a legitimate bell-cow with Alvin Kamara (knee) sidelined. It’s unclear if Kamara will return in Week 11, but Ingram should now be viewed as one of the top handcuff options in fantasy football. Furthermore, there will likely be weeks where he has standalone FLEX value in deeper formats.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
The rookie rumbled for 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in Week 10. He also hauled in 4-of-5 targets for an additional 15 yards through the air. It was an impressive performance, though game script certainly played into his favor. Damien Harris didn’t play in this one due to a concussion, and it quickly became evident that Stevenson was the superior runner to Brandon Bolden. It’s unclear how much of the backfield Stevenson earned once Harris is back, so moving forward Stevenson should just be considered an exciting bench stash. He absolutely needs to be rostered everywhere.

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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.

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