This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Hard to believe it’s already Week 11. In the last few weeks in the NFL, there have been some games with some pretty large spreads, huge mismatches as high as 14 points. Week 11 is precisely the opposite, with five games at 2.5 or under and seven games at 3.5 or under. What does that mean for daily fantasy? Balanced game scripts. No need to worry about your running back being phased out of the game plan due to playing catch up, or vice versa. Your wide receiver is getting fewer targets because their team is salting away the clock by running the ball in the fourth quarter. Let’s get to it.
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Cam Newton (CAR) $5,100 vs. WAS
This choice has more to do with his price than his ability. At $5,100, he is cheaper than Case Keenum ($5,200), cheaper than Trey Lance ($5,400), and the same price as Zach Wilson — none of those quarterbacks are expected to even play in Week 11.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Hard to believe it’s already Week 11. In the last few weeks in the NFL, there have been some games with some pretty large spreads, huge mismatches as high as 14 points. Week 11 is precisely the opposite, with five games at 2.5 or under and seven games at 3.5 or under. What does that mean for daily fantasy? Balanced game scripts. No need to worry about your running back being phased out of the game plan due to playing catch up, or vice versa. Your wide receiver is getting fewer targets because their team is salting away the clock by running the ball in the fourth quarter. Let’s get to it.
Win $1 Million playing FanDuel’s NFL Sunday Million
Quarterback
DraftKings
Cam Newton (CAR) $5,100 vs. WAS
This choice has more to do with his price than his ability. At $5,100, he is cheaper than Case Keenum ($5,200), cheaper than Trey Lance ($5,400), and the same price as Zach Wilson — none of those quarterbacks are expected to even play in Week 11.
Picking a cheap QB is one thing, but can he put up fantasy points? His biggest threat to score fantasy points is down near the goal-line. He had a passing and rushing touchdown in last week’s game in limited snaps, and last season, only Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara had more rushing touchdowns from inside the ten than did Newton (per FTNFantasy.com).
Despite making Tom Brady look average last week, this Washington defense is still giving up the most points to quarterbacks on the season, and now they are without their star pass rusher, Chase Young.
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) $5,300 @ JAX
FanDuel
Trevor Siemian (NO) $7,000 @ PHI
Siemian has played admirably in his two starts this year, both 2-points losses in which the Saints still had a chance to win. He has yet to throw in interception this season and has five touchdown passes. This Eagles pass defense is ranked 18th in DVOA. They rank dead last in Adjusted Completion Percentage allowed, which is completion percentage that excludes passes knocked down, passes thrown away, spikes, and passes when the quarterback is being hit.
Honorable Mention: Joe Flacco $6,300 (NYJ) vs. MIA
Running Back
DraftKings
David Montgomery (CHI) $5,500 vs. BAL
Montgomery returned to the lineup two weeks ago and received 15 total touches versus a stout Steelers front seven. Coming off their bye week, Montgomery should be close to 100-percent healthy and ready to take on his full workload. The Ravens defense is middle of the pack at 15th DVOA versus the run.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) $5,1oo @ JAX
As of this moment (Wednesday 11 am), Eli Mitchell is questionable but expected to play. However, he is having surgery on his finger, and there is still a chance he is unable to go, in which case Jeff Wilson becomes the 49ers lead back. Wilson has been good when given an opportunity. Last season in the four games before the injury that ended his season, he had five total touchdowns, including a game in which he had 183 rush yards.
Statistically, the Jags run defense is good, ranking seventh in DVOA and only giving up 17.23 points to running backs over the last four weeks (per Rotogrinders.com), but the 49ers just ran the ball 40 times against a Rams defense that was giving up the fourth-fewest points to running backs on the season.
Honorable Mention: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) $5,200 vs. DAL
FanDuel
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) $5,000 @ JAX
see above
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Corey Davis (NYJ) $5,000 vs. MIA
I had Corey Davis’ name written down before the news that Joe Flacco would be getting the start, and now I’m not as confident in this selection as I was, but I’ll stick with it. Flacco, as we know, has a big arm and won’t be afraid to sling it. It’s his chemistry with Davis that I’m worried about. Elijah Moore will also be on the radar with Flacco at quarterback. It’s just an unknown as to who he might favor.
Despite a good showing last week, the Dolphins pass defense is slightly below average, ranking 17th in DVOA. With the Dolphins starting Tua Tagovailoa this week, they should be able to put up some points on this Jets’ defense, forcing them to throw it more than they would like with Flacco.
Josh Reynolds (DET) $3,000 @ CLE
Reynolds is my dart throw of the week. Last week, the Lions went out and traded for him, but he was inactive in Week 10 with very little time to learn the playbook. He still isn’t likely to know the entire playbook for Week 11, but he should be good enough to pay off his $3k salary. The Browns’ pass defense is ranked 26 in DVOA, and they just had New England Patriots’ fans last week forgetting that Tom Brady was still in Tampa and not under center for their team, as Mac Jones had his way with the Browns. Josh Reynold’s could be this week’s, Kendrick Borne.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk $5,000 @ JAX (if Deebo Samuel is ruled out)
FanDuel
Robby Anderson (CAR) $5,600 vs. WAS
Ugh, this is probably my third or fourth time this season advocating for Robby Anderson, and he has burned me every time. What can I say? I’m a glutton for punishment. With Cam Newton under center, he is likely to take some shots deep. At one time in his career, Newton was a decent deep-ball thrower; even though we haven’t seen that in recent years, maybe he just needed the right receiver.
Only three teams give up a higher percentage of completions on deep passes than do the Washington Football Team (50%) — the Jags (54.5%), the Texans (54.5%), and surprisingly the Rams (55.6%) — and only the Broncos (8) have given up more deep ball touchdowns than Washington (7).
Josh Reynolds (CAR) $4,800 @ CLE
see above
Honorable Mention: Marcus Johnson (TEN) $5,600 vs. HOU
Tight End
DraftKings
Gerald Everett (SEA) $3,100 vs. ARI
Everett had his best game as a member of the Seahawks last week, catching all eight of his targets for 83 yards on his way to a 14.3 fantasy point day on DraftKings. Make no mistake about it, the Cardinals’ defense against the tight end position is stout, ranking second in DVOA and giving up the fourth-fewest points to tight ends on the season. Still, they are also good versus the wide receiver positions, so the passes have to go somewhere. I don’t see him getting eight targets this week, but if he gets 4-to-5 targets, he should easily pay off his salary.
Honorable Mention: David Njoku (CLE) $2,900 vs. DET
FanDuel
Adam Trautman (NO) $4,800 @ PHI
Trautman has received 19 targets over the last three weeks — he hasn’t done much with those targets, but he is getting the volume. It’s only a matter of time before he takes advantage. Philly is dead last in pass defense DVOA versus the tight end this season, a perfect opportunity for Trautman to have the breakout game we’ve all been waiting for.
Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett (SEA) $5,000 vs. ARI
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