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We had a couple of hits last week with Cam Newton, Adam Trautman, and even Joe Flacco, but we also had some misses with Jeff Wilson and David Montgomery. I take solace in that everyone had Wilson and Montgomery on their list of values. Very few had Flacco or Trautman. So let’s get to this week’s calls.
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Cam Newton (CAR) $5,600 @ MIA
Newton was in my value column last week, and if you played him, he paid off handsomely. The Dolphins are 21st in pass defense DVOA, but you’re not rostering Newton for his passing ability. You want rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins have given up the third-most red zone attempts (66) this season. Only the Chargers (69) and the Jets (77) have given up more (per FTNFantasy.com).
Honorable Mention: Tyrod Taylor $5,300 @ NYJ
FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) $6,900 vs. CAR
This is a tough matchup for the former Alabama star, but his price is too cheap to overlook. In the last four games that he has started, he is averaging nearly 21.5 Fanduel points.
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) $6,500 vs. MIN
Running Back
DraftKings
Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,200 vs. LAC
Williams is seventh in the league in MTF (Missed Tackes Forced), despite having 67 fewer carries than the next closest player (Dalvin Cook). The Chargers are what we call a “Funnel Defense.” They are okay with giving up rushing yards. Instead, they concentrate on not giving up the big play in the passing game. They rank ninth in pass defense DVOA but are dead last in run defense DVOA. Yes, he still shares carries with Melvin Gordon, but I expect the Broncos to give Williams a larger workload coming out of their bye.
Eli Mitchell (SF) $5,400 vs. MIN
Mitchell has played at least 60 percent of the snaps in every game he has started and finished this season. The perception that this offense has a committee is no longer correct. This is Mitchell’s backfield when healthy, and this week he gets the 27th DVOA rushing defense, the Minnesota Vikings. Check his status before game time, but I think he will play this week.
Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders (PHI) @ NYG
FanDuel
Damien Harris (NE) $6,000 vs. TEN
This will be a situation to monitor, but Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are on the injury report this week. The difference is, Stevenson was added mid-week, which is never good. If Stevenson is ruled out and Harris plays, then Harris becomes an excellent play at $6,000 against the 18th ranked rush defense per FootballOutsiders.com.
Miles Sanders (PHI) $6,100 @ NYG
The bad news for Sanders was he only played 46 percent of the snaps in his return to the lineup last week. The good news is he was given a season-high 16 carries and was even targetted once in the passing game. Sanders has yet to score a touchdown this season, but a matchup with the 30th ranked DVOA rush defense could change that.
Honorable Mention: Javonte Williams (DEN) vs. LAC
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) $4,000 @ NE
Julio Jones and Marcus Johnson are on IR, and A.J. Brown is questionable (chest), which could leave NWI the No. 1 wide receiver this week for the Titans. The Patriots are a formidable pass defense, 2nd in DVOA, but at $4,000, NWI won’t have to do much to pay off his salary, and volume alone could get him there.
Mike Williams (LAC) $5,700 @ DEN
I think the Chargers finally remembered they have this 6-foot-4 218lb weapon playing for their team. After four games of mediocrity, Williams put up 97 yards and a touchdown in last week’s game. Willaims also has the 11th best matchup rating of all receivers this week per FTNFantasy.com at 67.7.
Honorable Mention: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) $5,600 vs. TB
FanDuel
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) $5,600 vs. LAR
With Allen Lazard out last week, MVS had ten targets, catching four for 123 yards and a touchdown. The ten targets are a season-high for him. The ten targets are more than his previous three games combined. If Lazard is out this week, look for MVS to have another large target share in a game where the Packers may be forced to score to keep up with the Rams offense.
Kendrick Bourne (NE) $5,800 vs. TEN
This is a bit of a gut call, but Bourne has the best-expected matchup with Janoris Jenkins of the three Patriot receivers. Bourne also sports the highest “fantasy points per route run” and has the highest catch percentage of the three wide receivers.
Honorable Mention: Tim Patrick (DEN) $5,700 vs. LAC
Tight End
DraftKings
Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) $2,700 @ DEN
Parham has ten targets over his last three games after only nine in his first seven, which tells me he is becoming more involved in the offense. Parham is also a big end zone threat — of his 19 targets on the year, four have been endzone targets. Teammate Jared Cook has six end zone targets, but he also has 50 total targets on the year.
To put that in perspective, if Parham maintained the same ratio of targets to end zone targets, and you gave him the 50 targets Cook has received, Parham would lead all tight ends in end zone targets with 11 — three more than Kelce. That’s a long way of saying. If Parham is targeted, there is a good chance it’ll be in the endzone.
FanDuel
Dan Arnold (JAC) $5,100 vs. ATL
Arnold let many people down last week, but to be fair, the 49er’s defense against tight ends is one of the best in the league. The Falcons are middle of the pack at defending the tight end, giving up 8.9 fantasy points per game to the position, but he is worth giving another shot at his price tag.
Honorable Mention: Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) $4,700 vs. LAC
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