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Week 8 was a bit hit or miss for my column, but the ones that hit, hit. Michael Pittman and Elijah Mitchell were two of my better calls, with Kenneth Gainwell and Demetric Felton being two of my bad calls. This week, we have some good value opening up with some injuries, players being put on Covid lists, and the unfortunate incident involving Henry Ruggs. So let’s get to it…
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Taysom Hill* (NO) $5,500 vs. ATL
The Falcons are ranked 29th in passing DVOA defense (per footballoutsiders.com) and have given up the third-most quarterback scramble yards this season (per FTNfantasy.com). In 2020, only Cam Newton had more carries (31 vs. 18) and touchdowns (11 vs. 8) inside the 10 yards line than Taysom Hill.
Honorable Mention: Tyrod Taylor* (HOU) $5,000 @ MIA
*if he starts
FanDuel
Matt Ryan (ATL) $6,700 @ NO
I get it. Matt Ryan was bad last week, and, I know, he doesn’t have Calvin Ridley either, but at his price, I still think he can put up enough fantasy points to pay off his salary. Ryan has thrown for 300 or more yards in all but three games this season, and he has two or more touchdowns in all but two.
Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill (NO) $7,000 vs. ATL
Running Back
DraftKings
Derrick Gore (KC) $4,000 vs. GB
Gore seemingly came out of nowhere last week and gained 48 yards on 11 carries. His 4.4 yards per carry is better than Darrel Williams‘ 3.5 average on the season. Green Bay is 30th in rushing DVOA defense, and with Aaron Rodgers ruled out, there is a good chance that the Chiefs will get up big and run the ball more than usual.
JaMycal Hasty** (SF) $4,000 vs. ARI
At the time I wrote this, Eli Mitchell (rib) was still listed as questionable. Jeff Wilson Jr. is still a week away from playing as his practice window was just opened, and he will need time to get into game shape. That will leave Hasty as the only running back if Mitchell is ultimately ruled out. The Cardinals rush defense is good (ranking ninth in DVOA), but at $4,000, if Hasty is the only running back getting touches, the volume will be enough to pay off his salary.
**if Eli Mitchell is out or limited
Honorable Mention: A.J. Dillon (GB) $4,600 @ KC
FanDuel
A.J. Dillon (GB) $5,200 @ KC
With Aaron Rodgers ruled out for Sunday, Jordan Love will get the start at quarterback. The Packers will likely lean on their run game with Aaron Jones and Dillon splitting the workload. The Chiefs rank 29th in rush defense DVOA and are tied for the third-most red zone rushing touchdowns allowed on the season.
Derrick Gore (KC) $5,400 vs. GB
see above
Honorable Mention: JaMycal Hasty (SF) $5,400 vs. ARI
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Hunter Renfrow (LV) $4,800 @ NYG
The unfortunate circumstances involving Henry Ruggs have forced the Raiders to cut him from the team, which will open up more targets for the other receivers. Ruggs was more of the deep threat, and Renfrow has never been that type of receiver, but his PPR floor is still one of the highest in the league, and an increase in targets will benefit him. The Giants’ overall pass defense ranks 11th in DVOA. However, against the slot wide receiver, where Renfrow lines up 60 percent of the time (per PlayerProfiler.com), they rank 19th.
Tajae Sharpe (ATL) $4,200 @ NO
The latest NFL castoff to find himself with fantasy value in Atlanta is Tajae Sharpe. With the announcement that Calvin Ridley would be stepping away from football, it was assumed Russell Gage would be the beneficiary of the vacated targets. However, after Gage got zero targets in last week’s game, it looks like Sharpe might be the receiver to have. In the two games in which Calvin Ridley did not play this season, Sharpe has nine catches on 11 targets for 111 yards.
Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman (BAL) $4,000 vs. MIN
FanDuel
Bryan Edwards (LV) $5,300 @ NYG
Edwards is the assumed one-for-one replacement for Henry Ruggs, but Edwards is a complete receiver in that he isn’t solely a deep threat. Edwards has yet to live up to his potential in the NFL, honestly, but he has shown flashes. Maybe now that quarterback Derek Carr will have no choice but look his way, he will finally breakout? Either way, he is probably their best red-zone threat next to Darren Waller, so he should at least get some of those targets.
Nico Collins (HOU) $5,400 @ MIA
Collins now has 15 targets over his last three games. Unfortunately, he plays for the Texans, who are allergic to scoring, so he has yet to get his first NFL touchdown. However, the 26th ranked Miami defense might be just what the doctor ordered for Collins to find pay dirt. The return of quarterback Tyrod Taylor could help if Taylor makes his first start since Week 2.
Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman (BAL) $5,400 vs. MIN
Tight End
DraftKings
Albert Okwuegbunam+ (DEN) $2,600 @ DAL
Noah Fant has been put on the COVID list. There is a chance he is still cleared to play by this Sunday, but it’s more likely that he is out. Okwuegbunam has proven to be a decent complement to Fant, last year having two games with six or more targets before going down with a season-ending knee injury. At $2,600, he gives you some salary relief, and the Dallas defense ranks dead last in DVOA versus tight ends.
+if Noah Fant is out
FanDuel
Brevin Jordan (HOU) $4,600 @ MIA
Jordan had three catches on four targets and a touchdown last week, and while that’s all he has done this season, it did come against one of the best defenses in the NFL. This week he gets the Dolphins that rank 28th in DVOA versus tight ends and 26th in passing defense overall.
Honorable Mention: Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN) $4,500 @ DAL
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