NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 8 (2021)

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What a Week 7 we had. My quarterbacks were Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan and Tua Tagoviloa — all of which paid off. My running backs weren’t so great as Mile Sanders went out with an injury after a promising start. Wide receivers were good with Rashod Bateman, Jaylen Waddle, and Dante Pettis, and I nailed the Robert Tonyan “get right” week as he scored a touchdown. Let’s hope we have the same success this week…

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Quarterback

DraftKings 

Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) $5,400 vs. WAS
The Washington Football Team is bottom five in nearly every metric when it comes to passing defense. They are 29th in passing defense DVOA (per FootballOutsiders.com), they have allowed the most pass attempts in the red zone, and are tied for the most red-zone touchdowns  (per FTNFantasy.com). They also allow the fourth-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) $5,500 @ SEA

FanDuel 

Taylor Heinicke (WAS) $7,000 @ DEN
This game has bad defenses on both sides of the ball. The Broncos are 24th in DVOA against the pass and because neither team will be able to stop each other, points will be scored in this game. The Football Team’s run game has suffered from Antonio Gibson playing hurt, so look for Heinicke to shoulder a lot of the offense.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) $6,700 @ SEA

Running Back

DraftKings 

Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,300 vs. WAS
Williams scored a touchdown last week and has looked like the better running back the last couple of weeks as Melvin Gordon has slowed down. Washington’s run defense isn’t bad against the run, rankings eighth in DVOA, but Williams showed last week he can be a pass catcher as well as he had six catches on seven targets.

Demetric Felton (CLE) $4,500 vs. PIT
This is my most risky play on the slate. He didn’t do much last week in the Kareem Hunt role, but that was more a product of D’Ernest Johnson doing so well. Nick Chubb is back and I expect him to get all the work on the ground, but Felton, in the Hunt role this week, could be used more in the passing game as the Steelers are ninth in DVOA against the run.

Honorable Mention: Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) $5,000 @ DET

FanDuel 

Elijah Mitchell (SF) $5,800 @ CHI
Mitchell has been getting nearly all the work out of this backfield, and that should continue in Week 8. More importantly, he is getting the red-zone and goal-to-go work, and that’s where he will pay off this week. Expect at least one touchdown for the rookie running back in this game.

Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) $5,900 @ DET
With Miles Sanders out, Gainwell should step into a lead role — granted a lead running back in Philly hasn’t meant much lately. Gainwell, however, in limited usage has three touchdowns on the season, and I think the Eagles started to commit to the run a little more last week before Miles Sanders went down with an injury. The Lions are 21st in rush defense DVOA and 32rd against pass-catching running backs — which Gainwell is.

Honorable Mention: Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,900 vs. WAS

Wide Receiver

DraftKings 

Michael Pittman (IND) $5,300 vs. TEN
Pittman puts up four catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown last week, and DraftKings lowers his price by $100 in a better matchup? This might be one of the best values on the entire slate, the Titans rank in the bottom third of the league in DVOA against every wide receiver position, the X, the Y, and the slot. Pittman has lined up in all three spots this season.

Tee Higgins (CIN) $5,200 @ NYJ
Higgins was overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase‘s monster game, but Higgins quietly had 15 targets last week. If I can get any player with 15 targets against a Jets defense at $5,200 I’m doing it.

Honorable Mention: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) $4,900 vs. WAS

FanDuel 

Van Jefferson (LAR) $5,700 @ HOU
Wide receiver DeSean Jackson will not play in this game as he pursues a trade, leaving the door open for Van Jefferson who is coming off a game in which he played 94 percent of the snaps and had a touchdown.

Jerry Jeudy (DEN) $6,000 vs. WAS
Don’t be fooled by the “IR” next to Jeudy’s name on DraftKings, he has already been ruled a starter for this week — the Broncos just haven’t made it official yet. I’ve already outlined how bad the Washington Football Team pass defense is, and Jeudy was Bridgewater’s favorite target before getting hurt in Week 1.

Honorable Mention: Kalif Raymond (DET) $5,700 vs. PHI

Tight End

DraftKings 

Dan Arnold (JAX) $2,800 @ SEA
There aren’t any super cheap tight ends that I love this week, but if I had to choose one, it’s Dan Arnold. He has received a total of 12 targets over his last two games, and now he gets a bad Seahawks defense.

FanDuel 

Tommy Tremble (CAR) $4,600 @ ATL
Tremble hasn’t done much all season, but Atlanta has a funny way of making players look good. Tremble doesn’t receive a ton of targets, but the ones he does receive are typically in the red zone. If he can catch a touchdown in this game, he will pay off his salary.

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