NBA DFS Primer: Monday (12/13)

After a few days off, we’re back to NBA here! NFL Sunday was absolutely amazing, but I’m ready to get back into the NBA grind. There’s a lot to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

After a slow Sunday card, we have a full nine-game slate here. What’s wild about this one are all of the stud injuries. You’ll open up DraftKings and see a million out next to big-name players, and it’s going to open up a ton of value on this slate. With that in mind, let’s kick things off with the schedule and odds!

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Schedule and Odds

• MIA at CLE (CLE -4.5) O/U: 209.5
• GSW at IND (GS -3.5) O/U: 214
• SAC at TOR (TOR -5) O/U: 220.5
• HOU at ATL (ATL -11) O/U: 226.5
• MIL at BOS (MIL -1) O/U: 217.5
• PHI at MEM (PHI -2.5) O/U: 209.5
• CHA at DAL (DAL -3.5) O/U: 219.5
• WAS at DEN (DEN -4) O/U: 215.5
• PHX at LAC (PHX -3) O/U: 212.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Luka Doncic (ankle) OUT
• LaMelo Ball (COVID) OUT
• Ja Morant (knee) OUT
• Devin Booker (hamstring) OUT
• Ben Simmons (personal) OUT
• Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) OUT
• Paul George (elbow) Doubtful
• Will Barton (illness) Questionable
• Jimmy Butler (tailbone) OUT
• Kyle Kuzma (COVID) OUT
• Jaren Jackson Jr (knee) Questionable
• P.J. Washington (COVID) Questionable
• Bam Adebayo (hand) OUT
• Deandre Ayton (illness) Questionable
• OG Anunoby (hip) OUT
• Richaun Holmes (eye) OUT

Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
This dude is nuts. Jokic has picked up three triple-doubles over his last four games, and the one game he didn’t might have been his best outing of the bunch. That has led to The Joker scoring at least 62 DraftKings points in four straight fixtures, getting his season average just south of 60 fantasy points per game. That makes him an easy choice in a matchup like this, with Washington surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C – DAL): $8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
With Luka Doncic out for the next few games, KP should be running things in Dallas. He actually leads the team with a 34 percent rate with Doncic off the floor, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute. That’s on full display when you see his 41-point average in the games Luka missed last season. Facing Charlotte might be the best matchup in fantasy basketball, too, with the Hornets sitting dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency.

Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $8,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Miami has really struggled without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but it’s forced Lowry into a playmaking role. The former Raptor has been leading the league in assists over the last week, averaging 16.8 points and 9.4 assists over the previous eight games, dishing out 27 dimes over his last two outings. You can’t ask for any more from someone in this price range, especially with the massive bump in usage.

Cash Game Considerations

Jalen Brunson (PG/SG – DAL): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
While Porzingis runs the show in the absence of Doncic, Brunson is the direct beneficiary. He actually enters the lineup as the starting point guard, averaging 40 DraftKings points per game when filling in for Doncic. That’s a spectacular total from a $6K player, and he should continue to do that against the worst defense in the NBA.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Capela and Rudy Gobert are probably my favorite cash game options on every slate, providing double-doubles at ease. Capela led the NBA in rebounds last year and has scored at least 44 DK points in five of his last eight games. Cap also has at least 29 DK points in 18 of his last 21 games in total, establishing one of the best floors in the league. That seems even more likely in a matchup like this, with Houston sitting 25th in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.

Dillon Brooks (SG/SF – MEM): $6,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Brooks is another guy getting a boost because of injury. He’s been the go-to guy with Ja Morant out of the lineup, ranked second on the team with a 31 percent usage rate with him off the floor. The one guy ahead of him is Jaren Jackson Jr, and it sounds like he might sit here as well. Brooks should be looking at a 35 percent usage rate, 35 minutes, and 25 shots in this beautiful opportunity if that’s the case. We also don’t mind that Philly owns a 28th OPRK against opposing small forwards, either.

GPP Targets

Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Turner is the sort of guy that can win you some big money with his GPP upside. The big man has scored at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, dropping 57-plus on two occasions this season. You rarely see that from someone in this price range, and it looks like he’s playing motivated after the recent trade rumors.

Tim Hardaway Jr (SG/SF – DAL): $5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
THJ is the final piece to our Dallas stack. The former Knick leads the team in shots per minute when Doncic is out of the lineup, averaging over 30 DK points per game in those outings. That’s an amazing total from a sub-$6K player, and he obviously benefits from the sensational Charlotte matchup too.

Dewayne Dedmon (C – MIA): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Miami has been trying to cope without Adebayo, but Dedmon has done a formidable job in his absence. Dedmon averaged 25 DK points per game as a starter over the last three years, and that’s pretty much the guy we’ve seen recently. In fact, DD has at least 39 fantasy points in two of his six starts, averaging 26.2 fantasy points per game in this expanded role. He should be asked to play big minutes in this matchup, too, with Cleveland having one of the stoutest frontcourts in the NBA.

Value Plays

Armoni Brooks (PG/SG – HOU): $4,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Houston has been struggling to figure out their backcourt with Kevin Porter Jr.and Jalen Green both sidelined, but it looks like Brooks will be one of their primary playmakers. The young guard has scored at least 30 DK points in three straight games, posting a 32-point average in that span. That’s an absurd total from such a cheap player, especially against a 24th-ranked Atlanta defense.

Chris Boucher (PF/C – TOR): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Man, Boucher has been playing with our emotions all season, but he’s got the upside to be an $8K player. Injuries have really allowed him to thrive recently, starting the last two games for Precious Achiwua. We’re talking about a guy who averages over 1.3 DK points per minute for his career, and if he can duplicate the 29 minutes we saw over the weekend, we simply can’t fade CB.

Marvin Bagley III (PF/C – SAC): $3,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
Bagley was buried in the doghouse under Luke Walton, but it appears he’s found a nice role under this new regime. While he is coming off the bench, Bagley has at least 18 DK points in six of his last seven games, dropping 26 or more in three of his previous five. That would be an incredible total from someone this cheap, and it seems way more likely with Richaun Holmes expected to miss this game.

Advantageous Pricing

• Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $8,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
• Chris Duarte (PG/SF – IND): $4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Jaylen Brown (SG/SF – BOS): $9,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
• Cody Martin (SG/SF – CHA): $6,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
• Daniel Gafford (C – WAS): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

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