Week 15 gives us our first Saturday NFL action of the year. Unfortunately, one of the games requires careful monitoring for COVID-19 news, as many players on the Browns and their head coach Kevin Stefanski has been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. As a result, the line shifted from opening with the Browns favored by six points to the Raiders favored by 1.5 points. In addition, the game’s total has plummeted from 42.5 points to 38.5 points. Nevertheless, this will be a fun addition to the week of NFL daily fantasy action, and I analyze each game below. Finally, remember that customary golden rules in daily fantasy should be thrown out the window on a two-game slate, such as never using two running backs from the same game or a defense against the opposing running back. It’s paramount to open your mind to roster builds that would be unusual on a full slate.
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Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Spread: LV -1.0 Point
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders have dealt with adversity this year. However, they're on the ideal side of adversity this week, with the Browns navigating many players on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Anyway, according to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 6 (when Rich Bisaccia took over as interim head coach), when the offensive scoring margin is trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Raiders pass at the sixth-highest rate (63%).
The pass-happy approach coupled with the Browns possibly missing critical contributors in their secondary pushes Derek Carr to the top of my favorite quarterbacks on this slate. Carr's season has been a rollercoaster ride. Thankfully, he flashed his high-end performance just two games back, hanging 373 yards and a touchdown on the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, I like Hunter Renfrow and DeSean Jackson as stacking partners or standalone selections. The former is a man on fire. He is on a three-game streak surpassing 100 receiving yards, hauling in 30 receptions and a touchdown in the process. Renfrow is likely to be the chalkiest receiver on the slate given the lackluster alternatives, ease of fitting him under the cap, and his excellent play lately. Nevertheless, I'm using him across all game types.
Complementing Renfrow is boom-or-bust D-Jax, a speedy field-stretcher. He was slowly integrated into the offense since his acquisition via trade. However, according to Pro Football Focus, he has run 67 routes in his previous three games. Unfortunately, he's only had one useful fantasy line in five games on the Raiders. Still, that game was a blow-up performance for a 3-102-1 line. D-Jax can pay off his modest salary on as little as one play. Furthermore, because he's followed up his lone big game with the Raiders with a pair of duds, the percentage of rosters he's on shouldn't get out of hand.
Before closing with the defense, allow me to voice my preference for fading a likely chalky Josh Jacobs. Obviously, his receiving role has grown for the Raiders. He's an every-down back. The Raiders are now favorites, too. So, gamers are likely to be drawn to those factors.
Nonetheless, he's precisely the type of chalk I like to fade on a small slate. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jacobs is 55th out of 68 qualified players in yards per touch (4.4). Moreover, 87 rushing yards and 22 rush attempts are his season-highs. So, he's not much of a threat to hit a yardage bonus, increasing his need to stack up receptions or fall into the end zone to provide a significant ceiling. Thus, I'll gleefully fade him.
Finally, the defense is cheapest on the slate and faces an undermanned offense that's unimposing even at full strength. As favorites now in a game with a total under 40.0 points with a mid-pack pass-rush, they're an excellent selection in all game types.
Browns Analysis: The Browns might be without a few starters on their offensive line since they're on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. So, obviously, that's not ideal for the offense. Additionally, starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and backup quarterback Case Keenum are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Sadly, that leaves Nick Mullens as the starter. Thankfully, he has starting experience and is merely below average rather than utterly incompetent.
Despite the less-than-ideal circumstances, Nick Chubb is still my second-favorite running back on the slate. Chubb is an explosive runner who can overcome the adversity he faces on Saturday. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 48 running backs with at least 75 run attempts, he is third in 10-plus yard rushes (31), missed tackles forced on runs (46), and first in yards after contact per attempt (4.14 YCO/A).
Also, Chubb is likely to have an increased role in the passing game. Kareem Hunt is unlikely to play this week. Chubb has run 35 routes versus only 24 routes for D'Ernest Johnson in three games without Hunt this year, hauling in all five of his targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku are poised to take on more significant roles this week if Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper remain on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. The matchup is excellent for Njoku. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Raiders yield the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends. DPJ is a vertical threat that might be asked for more diverse usage, possibly boosting his floor. Still, it's within the realm of possibility Cleveland's offense wholly tanks with all of the integral absences from the offense. So, there is a significant risk to using DPJ and Njoku.
Finally, Cleveland's defense is an intriguing GPP pivot from the Raiders' defense. Myles Garrett is a one-man wrecking crew lining up opposite an offensive line that's dreadful in pass protection. The Raiders are 23rd in Pro Football Focus's pass-blocking grade.
Game: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are an average or top-shelf run-blocking team, depending on your preferred source. According to Football Outsiders, New England is 14th in Adjusted Line Yards. However, they are graded as the fifth-best run-blocking team at Pro Football Focus. So, why isn't Damien Harris in the table? First, he is practicing with a hamstring injury, and I'm leery of using him for fear of an in-game aggravation. Also, the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze now that Rhamondre Stevenson is cutting into his rushing work.
Speaking of Stevenson, his value will skyrocket if Harris suffers a setback with his hamstring and is forced to sit out. However, Stevenson is a usable option on this slate even in a shared early-down role with untapped upside if my concerns about an in-game setback for Harris come to fruition. Although you should be aware, the matchup is challenging. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are fifth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Conversely, Indy is only 17th in pass defense DVOA. So, maybe offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel with turn up the passing attack in an easier matchup for New England's passing game than their rushing attack. This year, the Patriots have shied away from putting too much on rookie Mac Jones's plate. Nonetheless, they did cut Jones loose against the stout run defenses of the Saints and Buccaneers, allowing him to air it out 51 times and 40 times. He's the other quarterback I like on this slate.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are matchup-driven picks from New England's passing attack. The Colts allow the sixth-most FanDuel points and third-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends this year. In addition, they suppress explosive pass plays, enhancing the outlook for pass-catchers with shallow and intermediate usage in the passing game. According to Sharp Football Stats, since Week 6, Indy has allowed the lowest average explosive pass rate (five percent).
As a result, Kendrick Bourne is an excellent matchup fit, too. According to Pro Football Focus, he has an average depth of target of 8.9 yards downfield. In addition, the veteran receiver is a thorn in the side of opposing defenses, evidenced by ranking 19th in yards after the catch. Bourne has also been very efficient, ranking 12th out of 63 receivers targeted at least 50 times with 2.16 yards per route run (Y/RR) per Pro Football Focus.
Colts Analysis: Jonathan Taylor is the star of this two-game slate and is priced accordingly. Regardless, I won't fade him, and he'll be chalky. But, of course, he deserves to be chalky. The second-year back is first in yards from scrimmage (1,684) and touchdowns (18). As a result, Taylor is a matchup-proof monster. I don't need to say anything else to sell you on using Taylor.
Even though Taylor is the offense's focal point, Michael Pittman Jr. and T.Y. Hilton are moderately attractive options on Saturday. According to Sports Info Solutions, Pittman is 14th in target share (24.0%). However, the second-year receiver is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver on the Colts, leading the team in receptions per game (5.2), receiving yards per game (67.8), and touchdown receptions (five). In addition, he's even chipped in four rush attempts for 41 yards. As a result, as the obvious top wideout on the Colts on a slate bereft of high-end receiving talent, he'll understandably be chalky. So, he's a fantastic selection in cash games. However, I'm open to pivoting in GPPs.
Hilton is an easy player to overlook and fade on a full slate. However, he's precisely the type of player if you squint profiles as a valid option on a two-game slate. In the half-dozen games Hilton has played this year, he has been third for the Colts in routes (136) and second in targets (23) and receiving yards (177). Sure, he's not the explosive game-breaking talent he was in his younger years. Regardless, he is still talented enough to jostle for No. 2 pass-catcher duty behind Pittman. Thus, if the Patriots go out of their way to take Pittman out of Indy's game plan, Hilton is positioned well to soak up extra looks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
