The off-season is the time when we often see major changes in player values for dynasty fantasy football leagues. Between free agency, trades, and the NFL Draft, there are always some big changes that take place across the NFL and this year has been no exception. Not only have we seen a handful of major quarterback moves like Russell Wilson (QB – DEN), but two of the best wide receivers in the NFL both were moved in Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) and Davante Adams (WR – LV). We rarely see this many big moves, not to mention the retirement and un-retirement of Tom Brady (QB – TB).
Needless to say, the off-season can change things drastically for dynasty football purposes. This period before the 2022 NFL Draft offers a unique window to sell high or buy low on certain players. Here are a few players that I might consider selling high on before the NFL Draft kicks off and shakes things up even more.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Dynasty Ranking: RB3 – 6th Overall
First up is Javonte Williams, the second-year running back out of North Carolina, now with the Denver Broncos. Last year, the Broncos went with almost a perfect 50/50 split between Williams and Melvin Gordon (RB – FA). This year, the breakout is imminent with Gordon still a free agent and the only other running backs in Denver being Mike Boone (RB – DEN) and Damarea Crockett (RB – DEN). That being said, Denver has shown interest in re-signing another running back, and there’s still an off-chance that Gordon could return if he lowers his expectations and takes a decent-sized pay cut. I wouldn’t bank on him returning, but it’s worth at the very least acknowledging. If it’s not Gordon or another random free agent, I think they’ll grab one potentially in the Draft with their eight picks, including two third-round and two fourth-round picks, potentially someone like James Cook (RB) or Tyler Badie (RB).
Williams is young, talented, and has the perfect opportunity ahead of him to succeed and put up solid fantasy production. So why would anyone want to sell him? Well, as the RB3 and sixth overall player in our dynasty rankings, you can’t possibly look at those rankings and not at least consider selling high. Whether you’re winning now, rebuilding, or stuck somewhere in between, anytime a player has this massive of a spike in value, you might want to at least put them on the block.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
Dynasty Ranking: WR12 – 25th Overall
Next is the third-year wide receiver for the Bengals, Tee Higgins. With two seasons under his belt, he’s finished as the WR28 and WR24 in PPR scoring leagues. He went from averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game in his rookie year to 15.6 this last year, good for 13th for all wide receivers. For what it’s worth, I like Higgins a lot. The Bengals offense as a whole is very explosive and fun to watch and should produce plenty of fantasy points over the years. This offense is loaded with pass-catchers and weapons and recently added Hayden Hurst (TE – CIN). Anytime you have someone like Chase on the same offense, the upside is going to be limited to an extent for the WR2 like Higgins here. If you’re banking on Higgins to continue this production, you’re also banking on this offense to continue to play consistently at this high level.
That being said, this WR12 ranking doesn’t do justice to the hype around Higgins right now. Davante Adams is currently the WR6 in our rankings and CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL) is WR5, and some people would much rather have Higgins straight up. At his current value and based on the surrounding hype thanks to websites like Twitter, I’d consider putting Higgins on the block and see just how much you might be able to get out of him.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
Dynasty Ranking: RB24 – 62nd Overall
Next up is Leonard Fournette, coming off of the best fantasy football season of his career. He finished as the RB6 in PPR leagues, making that three seasons now where he’s finished as an RB1 and two seasons where he’s been RB35 or worse, despite playing in eight games or more in both of those seasons. In 2020, Fournette averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, and that was the absolute worst in his career. Outside of that, he’s 15 or more fantasy points per game in every single season, including 18.3 last year, the highest in his five years in the NFL.
Needless to say, Fournette is in the perfect position to once again be a value for fantasy football and has a great chance to be an RB1 once again. Ronald Jones (RB – KC) is gone, Giovani Bernard (RB – TB) is back, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB) is the other option, who is basically irrelevant. Bernard would be the biggest threat to him, assuming they get him going in the passing game like we all thought would happen last year when he signed in Tampa. All this to say, if you’re winning now, Fournette is absolutely a hold. However, if you’re in the flux or not going to win, he’s absolutely a sell-high. He turned 27 in January and is coming up on the cliff where you’ll see his production fall off for a running back. Put him on the block, because personally if I’m winning now, I’d easily pay a late-1st rounder for Fournette and that’s a solid return for an aging running back if you’re not contending.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Dynasty Ranking: WR13 – 30th Overall
I’ll include Diontae Johnson last, and that’s largely due to the gigantic question marks surrounding this offense and the quarterback position. Johnson has increased his fantasy points per game every single year so far, going from 9.8 in his rookie season, to 14.8, and 17.2 last year. Despite how poorly Ben Roethlisberger was playing, he was force-feeding Johnson the ball, especially last year when he saw 169 targets and 144 the season prior.
The Steelers head into the 2022 NFL Draft with Mitch Trubisky (QB – PIT) and Mason Rudolph (QB – PIT), so I fully expect they’ll be one of the teams to take a shot on one of the top quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett (QB) or Malik Willis (QB). This offense is going to go through a few seasons of growing pains with whoever they decide to give the starting job. I’m expecting them to lean on their defense and running game heavily, and also get Chase Claypool (WR – PIT) and Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) both more involved. WR13 might be the highest-ranking that you’ll see for Johnson over the next few seasons and I’d consider selling high.
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