A fantasy football sleeper can cover a wide range of players, from completely off-the-grid guys going overly late in drafts to players who possess major upside that are flying under the radar.
“Deep sleepers” are always fun to seek out, but often they’re such long shots that we can’t rely on too many of them. Therefore it is good to provide a broad spectrum when discussing sleeper targets.
The following list of players will guide you through the beginning to the end of the double-digit rounds of your fantasy football drafts. The main goal is that one or several of them beat their ADPs by a significant margin, akin to performances from Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Waddle, Elijah Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Cordarelle Patterson last season.
But for you true fantasy football degenerates that are max entering Best Ball Mania III in May, I’ve included some of my personal favorite deep sleepers – and some super deep sleepers – that will surely surprise you. Feel free to draft them with your last pick in all your summer best ball drafts or stash them on your 50-man fantasy football dynasty rosters.
Let’s get weird. After all, we are talking about fantasy football in May.
Running Backs
James Cook (RB – BUF): ECR – RB42
Rookie running back James Cook has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his second-round draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness, and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.
The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Devin Singletary was the RB3 over the last six weeks of the regular season when the Bills entrenched him as the featured guy. Cook, with an ECR of RB42, seems priced closer to their floor than his ceiling considering Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
And you can’t overlook how aggressive Buffalo has been trying to add a dynamic pass-catcher in their offense with failed attempts at J.D. McKissic and Christian McCaffrey, along with rumors that they were dead set on taking Travis Etienne Jr. in the 2021 NFL Draft.
This drive for a receiver out of the backfield might be coming from the Bills new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, who may know a thing or two about the value of a pass-catching running back.
In his last year with Carolina in 2017 as the QB coach, Dorsey oversaw a mobile Cam Newton pepper rookie running back Christian McCaffrey to the tune of 113 targets for 80 catches for 651 receiving yards.
Simply put: There’s a lot of untapped potential and upside for Cook in Buffalo’s explosive offense.
Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN): ECR – RB95
Michigan’s Hassan Haskins was one of my favorite running back sleepers before the NFL Draft. I claimed I’d be in on him if he got Round 4 draft capital, and Haskins did exactly that being selected 131st overall.
He broke out in a big way as “the guy” for the Wolverines in 2021, earning a 23 percent dominator rating, raising his career dominator rating to 20 percent.
With an identical PFF rushing grade to Breece Hall (91.6) over the last three seasons, Haskins looked primed to exceed expectations in the NFL. He offers a lot of size at 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, so he can handle a heavy workload. The Michigan product also led his entire class in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line (29), which gives him a real shot at carving out a goal-line role in the pros.
Haskins will never see the field as long as Derrick Henry stays healthy. But there’s zero doubt in my mind that he’s the clear direct back-up for Henry, who showed us last season that he is mortal.
Doesn’t hurt Haskins’ chances either that his head coach is a die-hard Ohio State alumni, and that didn’t change his mind on drafting a Michigan running back.
Abram Smith (RB – NO): ECR – RB117
Rookie running back Abram Smith didn’t hear his name called during the 2022 NFL Draft, which was extremely surprising to me based on his college profile.
His 25 percent dominator rating and 3.3 yards per play during his final collegiate season were outstanding marks considering he spent the previous year playing linebacker for the Baylor Bears. Smith made the switch back to running back for his senior season and delivered massively with 1,598 rushing yards (fifth) – 1,011 of which came after contact.
It’s almost like the guy used to play defense. Oh, wait.
With an impressive outing at the Senior Bowl – named top running back on the National team – Smith looked like he was going to be drafted. He has the requisite size at 6-feet and 213 pounds to be a three-down back at the next level if he can improve his game as a receiver. And he can still deliver explosive plays even at a large size.
His boom rate – the percentage of plays that result in an EPA greater than 1, i.e., a big play for the offense as provided by Sports Info Solutions – trailed only Kenneth Walker among his running back draft class (16 percent).
But after going undrafted, Smith signed with the New Orleans Saints as a UDFA with a $222,000 guaranteed contract – one of the biggest guarantees for any rookie free agent around the league in recent years.
It’s a strong indicator that Smith will likely crack the final 53-man roster, and his special-teams ability will be his pathway to being active on game day.
Just dressing for games is half the battle for many rookies, so for Smith to have a realistic path as a UDFA should not be ignored. And neither should the general ambiguity surrounding Alvin Kamara’s legal matters after he was arrested in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl.
If Kamara is suspended for any allotment of time, Smith is looking at a depth chart composed of Mark Ingram, Tony Jones Jr., Dwayne Washington, and Devine Ozigbo.
Ingram just turned 32. Jones was a UDFA in 2020 and bombed in his lone start in 2021. Washington has been on the roster for four seasons and has totaled 47 carries.
It’s not far-fetched to think that Smith is going to have a role on an ascending Saints offense sooner rather than later. He would hardly be the first UDFA success story to come out of New Orleans ie. Khiry Robinson, Chris Ivory, and Pierre Thomas.
Rex Burkhead (RB – HOU): ECR – RB81
The highest-paid running back on the Houston Texans roster is Rex Burkhead. $2.1 million of Burkhead’s $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal, and rookie Dameon Pierce was drafted in the fourth round.
I envision Mack/Pierce duking out work on early downs, while Burkhead slides in as the primary pass-catching back after he ranked sixth in route participation over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. The receiving role is the one to target in this backfield for a team that projects to be playing from behind frequently.
Not to mention that Burkhead came over from the New England Patriots last year alongside general manager Nick Caserio, so there’s a built-in connection from management to the field. It’s no coincidence that Burkhead nearly doubled his career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and games started in his first year with Houston in 2021.
And over the past two seasons, Burkhead has flashed a high weekly fantasy ceiling. He’s crested 22-plus weekly fantasy points thrice since 2020. Mack has totaled 21.5 fantasy points over that span.
Derrick Gore (RB- KC): ECR – RB117
The most appealing part about the KC backfield is identifying the potential goal-line back. And there’s a scenario where that guy is Derrick Gore.
Currently unsigned Darrel Williams played that role last season, and Gore flashed red-zone usage last season in Week 8 with six red-zone touches. Many will point to Gore’s undrafted status as a reason to believe he won’t be a factor in 2022. But the team’s belief in fellow UDFA Williams suggests that the team won’t shy away from Gore if he is indeed the best option for the job.
He was superior to both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones last season in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt. Gore was also uber-efficient in the passing game, finishing fourth in the NFL in yards per route run. It’s a small sample size with just nine targets, but it’s encouraging that he shows proficiency in the receiving game.
Jaylen Samuels (RB- ARI): ECR – N/A
Here’s my super deep sleeper: Jaylen Samuels. I’m intrigued by the former Steelers running back in Arizona because he reuniting with former Steelers running back coach James Saxon.
Coaching-player narratives are hardly any guarantee, but I think there’s a semblance to it at the running back position where coaches decide which players are touching the ball.
Case in point with two of last year’s biggest ADP jumpers in James Conner and Cordarelle Patterson.
Conner – like Samuels – went to Arizona and reunited with Saxon after first playing under him during his 2018 breakout season in Pittsburgh. Patterson became a Falcon coming from Chicago alongside ex-Bears passing game coordinator and current Atlanta offensive coordinator Dave Ragone.
Samuels’ best season came under Saxon’s tutelage in 2018 as he served as Conner’s primary backup. I don’t think it’s outlandish to think that should an inevitable injury occur to Conner, Samuels would be the next in line with a receiving skill set at 225 pounds.
Eno Benjamin looks slated for the No. 2 complementary role but profiles more as just a pass-catcher at 5-foot-9 and 207 pounds. 2022 Sixth-rounder Keaontay Ingram offers decent size and athleticism but it remains to be seen how much work he will see as a Day 3 rookie.
Considering Samuel not only offers proven pass-catching ability but the requisite size to shoulder the workload, don’t be shocked if he’s the No. 2 back out of training camp.
Wide Receivers
Josh Palmer (LAC – WR): ECR – WR74
Mike Williams‘ return to the Chargers in free agency puts a slight damper on the sophomore breakout for Josh Palmer. But there’s still fantasy appeal to rostering the No. 3 option in a Justin Herbert-led offense.
As a rookie, Palmer averaged over seven targets per game and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60 percent snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs.
With a downfield skill set that perfectly aligns with his big-armed quarterback, Palmer is one of my favorite late-round WRs to target. Because should an injury occur to Keenan Allen or Williams, I’d expect Palmer to make the most of the opportunity based on his play last season.
Kyle Philips (TEN – WR): ECR – WR137
I’m disappointed to report that I acquired zero of Titans wide receiver, Kyle Philips, in my rookie drafts. First, he was taken one spot before me by FantasyPros’ own Pat Fitzmaurice after I waxed poetic about him on Pat’s Fitz on Fantasy podcast. Then he got swept up right before my pick in another dynasty rookie draft.
I believe he has some sneaky Hunter Renfrow-like slot skill that most will overlook, but NFL teams like the Titans will love.
Philips commanded a 30 percent target share in 2021 at UCLA and could potentially become a top underneath option for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee.
And he’s already better than Treylon Burks.
Mack Hollins (LV- WR): ECR – WR175
It’s easy to overlook the Mack Hollins signing with the Raiders this offseason after all the other splashy moves they made. However, it’s important to denote that his deep-threat profile – fourth in aDOT (16.7) in 2021 – suggests he will be the team’s field stretcher on an offense filled to the brim with elite underneath options between Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller.
The subsequent trade of Bryan Edwards further bolsters my take on Hollins carving out that No. 3 receiver role on a high-powered pass-heavy offense.
He will never get doubled with all the other weapons on the Vegas offense, making him an extremely appetizing final-round best-ball option, especially in Raiders stacks.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin (NYJ – TE): ECR – TE37
Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share, and ninth in receptions.
His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets.
But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end, Jeremy Ruckert, in the third round. The situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below-average offense.
However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he’s worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties.
Conklin generated a higher target rate per route run than Uzomah did in 2021 (17 percent). Uzomah is also the superior pass-blocker, making it more likely Conklin serves as the primary receiving tight end in two-tight end sets. The same sentiment can be said about Ruckert, who served more as a blocker at Ohio State than as a pass-catcher.
It’s clear to me that Conklin has the green light to be the pass-catching tight end for the Jets, but the addition of two blocking tight ends has suppressed his ADP to TE35 and ECR to TE37.
It remains to be seen how fruitful it will be for Conklin in that specific role, catching passes from Zach Wilson. But the fact that Conklin already has a solid fantasy finish on his resume gives me hope that he will vastly outperform his ADP.
Keep in mind that Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur stems from the 49ers coaching tree, where tight ends have enjoyed a lot of fantasy production. And even last year’s deployment of Jets TE1 Tyler Kroft creates a sliver of hope that a top-tier role exists in Gang Green’s offense. Kroft ran a route on 96 percent of dropbacks in Week 16 and 77 percent in Week 18.
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