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Dynasty Trade Value Risers: Trey Lance, Courtland Sutton, Travis Etienne Jr. (2022 Fantasy Football)

Jun 2, 2022


 
Whether it’s a dynasty startup draft or your rookie draft, we have you covered. Our team of analysts includes Derek Brown and Matthew Freedman to join Andrew Erickson and Joe Pisapia. Oh, and don’t forget Pat Fitzmaurice and Scott Bogman who have you covered every week with our Dynasty Football Podcast.

For those in devy leagues, be sure to check out our devy trade value chart >>

They’ve all collaborated to provide our dynasty trade value chart. This is a dynamic chart created using a consensus of the analysts’ dynasty rankings.

Dynasty Trade Value Risers

Trey Lance (QB – SF)
Dynasty Trade Value (1QB/SF): 24/65 (+2/+3)

Trey Lance is falling in best ball ADP because of reports surfacing that he is underwhelming at OTAs and because Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after the 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers’ massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario. Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn’t been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I’d presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position. Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers’ first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game.

Jameis Winston (QB – NO)
Dynasty Trade Value (1QB/SF): 5/26 (+1/+3)

The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option. Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game – good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career. Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64).

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC)
Dynasty Trade Value: 44 (+5)

Travis Etienne Jr. was a standout college football running back for the Clemson Tigers from 2017 to 2020 and was selected by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft -25th overall. However, his rookie season was cut short by a preseason Lisfranc injury. Some NFL personnel reported that Etienne could have come back towards the end of the year had the Jaguars been in playoff contention instead of being the league’s laughing stock. Etienne is expected to be fully cleared by training camp, giving him a leg up on the RB1 role as the Jacksonville Jaguars install a new offense under new head coach Doug Pederson. With James Robinson attempting to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26th, Etienne figures to be the featured back during this spring/summer. Do not forget what this guy did at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) as his quarterback. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018 to 2019 while only carrying the ball 20-plus times once since 2018.

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
Dynasty Trade Value: 11 (+3)

One of my favorite cheap back targets is Khalil Herbert. David Montgomery is on the final year of his rookie contract, and the new coaching regime will have no loyalty toward him. That could open the door for Herbert to earn a larger role, which he more than deserves after how well he played in 2021. Herbert was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) from Weeks 5-8 with Montgomery sidelined. The rookie rushed for at least 72 yards in all four games. Montgomery rushed for 72 yards four times all season.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Dynasty Trade Value: 40 (+5)

Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury. But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season. It wasn’t until Jerry Jeudy‘s return from injury that Sutton – and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers – became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46. However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021. Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver’s trade for Russell Wilson. Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer – he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season – which plays heavily into Sutton’s strengths as a vertical threat.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
Dynasty Trade Value: 36 (+3)

Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s fantastic season-ending stretch was eye-popping, but it also needs context as we look forward to the 2022 season. St. Brown’s final six games were filled with insane volume ranking behind only Justin Jefferson in targets (67) and target share (33.5%) and sixth in weighted opportunity, but his efficiency was also elite. During that stretch, he was also 13th in yards per route run immediately behind Davante Adams and Micheal Pittman (minimum ten targets, per PFF). T.J. Hockenson was out, and D’Andre Swift was a part-time player as St. Brown turned in full legend mode performances. With their respective returns and the addition of D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams, the expectations for St. Brown need to be tempered this season.

David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Dynasty Trade Value: 20 (+3)

Franchise-tagged tight end David Njoku has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback after an encouraging 2021. He set career highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, 8th), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends that commanded at least 50 targets in 2021. The Browns also released Austin Hooper, which should open up the opportunity for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don’t be too quick to forget that Njoku already has a top-10 TE finish on his career resume.

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB)
Dynasty Trade Value: 10 (+8)

This season, Robert Tonyan could reenter the top ten tight end realm if his health complies. Tonyan is recovering from a torn ACL, but the Packer’s receiving hierarchy is wide open after Davante Adams‘ departure. In 2020, Tonyan ranked tenth in yards per route run during his breakout season, but he was only 24th in receiving yards per game (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He’ll have to pick it up in the volume and yardage departments because repeating 11 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most among tight ends with Travis Kelce) is a lofty goal.

CTAs


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