Every fantasy manager has players they would prefer to stay away from. Reasons could include a poor offense, injury woes or a bad second half last year. Keep in mind that it’s possible for the players we’d rather stay away from to step up and have a good season (we’re looking at you, Hunter Henry). However, the key to preventing yourself from taking on too much risk is to predict which players have the highest chance to disappoint at their current ADP (average draft position), and then avoid them unless they fall too far to be ignored. Who will our featured experts hesitate to draft at their current cost? Read on to find out!
Q. Which one player inside the top 100 in our consensus ADP do you plan on avoiding in all your drafts relative to their price and why?
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV): Consensus ADP – 41st Overall | RB20
“Josh Jacobs is a must-avoid at RB20 (41st overall). Jacobs’ RB13 finish last season was largely volume-driven, as he was ninth in opportunity share, 11th in carries and ninth in targets among running backs. With a new regime in place and superior receiving backs in Kenyan Drake, Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden on the roster, Jacobs will see his workload diminished in 2022, as his routes per game will dry up. Unless he hits an outlier touchdown count on the ground, he’s unlikely to pay off. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Whilst Josh Jacobs squeaked into the top 10 of running backs in PPR PPG in 2021, it’s hard to envisage him seeing a 12.2% target share once again, as Josh McDaniels seems set to employ a committee approach. That target share represented a top-12 amount for a running back. Whilst Jacobs has been a reliable touchdown scorer over the last three seasons, if he starts to lose the pass-catching upside to the committee, along with seeing fewer attempts, then Jacobs will become the epitome of a dead zone running back in 2022. ”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF): Consensus ADP – 19th Overall | WR7
“Deebo Samuel is by far the most overdrafted player at cost as we sit here in mid-July. Coming off the board as the WR7 and 19th overall player, Deebo has two major areas of concern, which is not what you want for your round two pick. 1) Efficiency regression: 18.2 yards per reception, 6.2 yards per carry, and eight rushing touchdowns on just 59 carries. None of these numbers are likely to repeat in efficiency, specifically the yards per catch and the rushing touchdowns. 2) Volume reduction: Trey Lance stepping in as the starting signal-caller spells trouble for Deebo as well. We saw some of the league’s lowest passing accuracy and passing volume when Lance started in 2021. A 58% completion percentage and 26 passes per start won’t help Deebo retain his receiving volume from 2021. With threats to both his efficiency AND his volume, there’s no way I can draft Deebo in the third round, let alone the second, in 2022 drafts.”
– Robby Jeffries (The Fantasy Authority)
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL): Consensus ADP – 88th Overall | RB33
“Cordarrelle Patterson had a fun 2021 season but will probably be a waste of 2022 fantasy draft capital. At 31, Patterson is well beyond the RB age apex. The Falcons were concerned enough about his physical well-being after a career-high 205 touches last year that they let him skip spring workouts and OTAs. Patterson is unlikely to get another 154 carries after his rushing production completely cratered late in the season — he averaged 2.3 yards per carry over Atlanta’s last four games — and he’s unlikely to equal last year’s 52 catches now that the Falcons have added big-bodied rookie WR Drake London. The ADP data says Patterson is routinely being drafted ahead of potential impact players such as Trey Lance and Rashod Bateman, and ahead of RBs with a better chance to move the needle in fantasy, such as Chase Edmonds, Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson and Ken Walker.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF): Consensus ADP – 46th Overall | RB21
“I don’t trust Elijah Mitchell to return investment as a low RB2, despite being the RB3 in opportunity share last year (80.8%). I am not confident in Mitchell having that kind of volume this season for four reasons. 1) He wasn’t efficient enough (RB22 in yards per touch, RB36 in juke rate, RB29 in evaded tackles and RB54 in fantasy points per opportunity). 2) He didn’t have and won’t have the utilization in the passing game. 3) Now the QB is Trey Lance, a mobile QB who can steal some touches and TDs from the red zone and goal line. 4) The 49ers invested in Tyrion Davis-Price at the NFL Draft.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): Consensus ADP – 42nd Overall | WR15
“The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts DK Metcalf in a tough spot for fantasy football. Metcalf thrives on touchdown production (32 touchdowns over his first three seasons), but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense. One of Seattle’s two top pass catchers might be able to get by based solely on volume or due to an injury, but that’s a bet I am not willing to make. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Cam Akers (RB – LAR): Consensus ADP – 33rd Overall | RB18
“I am unwilling to plunge my draft capital into RB Cam Akers (RB18, 33rd overall). Akers did make a fantastic return from tearing his Achilles in July of last year. Akers reclaimed his role as the RB1 for the Rams, but he did not contribute much and did not pass the eye test in the Rams’ march to winning Super Bowl 56. Plenty of players have struggled to get back their explosiveness and production after an Achilles injury. Akers only averaged 43 yards per game and 2.43 yards per carry in his return. Many people are in love with Akers due to his role in a Sean McVay offense, and the expectations are absurd. The offense caps his ceiling due to Darrell Henderson being healthier now and not going away, and adding rookie Kyren Williams to the RB room to ease the load for Akers. Additionally, the signing of WR Allen Robinson adds another element to the Rams’ offense, along with another year for Matthew Stafford to get more familiar with Sean McVay. I would rather have James Connor, Elijah Mitchell, and the upside of Travis Etienne and Breece Hall. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): Consensus ADP – 31st Overall | RB16
“Antonio Gibson: Despite opening his career with back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage, Gibson carries significant downside in 2022. He possesses a true three-down skill set, but the Commanders seem more desirous than ever to limit Gibson’s workload after he played last year with an assortment of lower-body injuries (hip, turf toe, shin). Even though they had Jaret Patterson, Wendell Smallwood and Jonathan Williams on the roster, the Commanders went out of their way this offseason to re-sign J.D. McKissic (who had already agreed to a deal with the Bills) and to invest a top-100 pick into Brian Robinson (who was drafted “at least a full round” early, per ESPN’s Matt Miller). With McKissic stealing targets and Robinson challenging for goal-line touches, short-yardage work and rotational series, Gibson could turn into a low-ceiling, low-floor between-the-20s committee back.”
– Matthew Freedman (FantasyPros)
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): Consensus ADP – 57th Overall | WR21
“Reports out of Tampa state that the Buccaneers are “hopeful” that Chris Godwin will be ready for the start of the season. This would be great news for Godwin, the Bucs, and anyone who bought low on the talented receiver in early drafts. The only problem is that there was no “buying low.” Godwin’s ADP of 59th overall has held steady all draft season, despite the fact that he tore his ACL on Dec. 21. I understand that we live in a time where players are able to quickly rehab injuries that once threatened their career, I just have a hard time paying a fifth-round price on a player who is currently injured. I have yet to press the button on Godwin in a single draft, and I do not see that changing, no matter how much “hope” is coming out of Tampa. ”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): Consensus ADP – 16th Overall | RB10
“The easy answer here is Alvin Kamara, but I’ll go with Javonte Williams. I might be on an island with my concerns about Williams, but I’m OK with that. The Denver offense will look completely different in 2022, and it will definitely be better than what we saw over the last few seasons. The problem is that it’s likely to lean more on the passing game with Russell Wilson in town, and they have a ton of mouths to feed through the air. Oh, and they brought Melvin Gordon back. This isn’t to say that Javonte Williams is going to be BAD in 2022. He’s going to be fine. My problem is that his ADP is approaching the first round, and I’m not confident enough in his role to build my team around him. There’s a decent chance I’m wrong about Williams, but I’m not willing to spend a late first-round or early second-round pick on his ceiling to find out. ”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Thanks to the experts for sharing their advice! For more of their insight, be sure to follow each pundit on Twitter (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.
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