Evaluating Expected Running Back Committees (2022 Fantasy Football)

The RBBC (running back by committee) has been just another four-letter word as far as fantasy managers are concerned. But not all hope is lost for players who are part of committees. First, let us first re-evaluate how we define a running back by committee. Because the truth is that almost every NFL team in this era employs a multiple-pronged attack at running back. The fantasy managers who can steer into the skid and take advantage of these situations will be able to find value later in drafts and stay ahead of the game.

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To illustrate this, I took the top 87 running backs from my latest half-PPR rankings update. I used this number because this is the number of backs who I currently project to score at least two points per game in half-PPR scoring. Only one back is projected to get more than 80 percent of his team’s half-PPR points. That would be Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers. No other Steeler running back cracked my top-87, although to be fair, both Jaylen Warren and Benny Snell are inside my top 100. It’s not as if Harris will receive every backfield touch this season for the black and yellow.

I expect that eight backs other than Harris will receive at least 70 percent of their backfield’s total fantasy points. However, this does not mean these are the top nine running backs for fantasy. Sure, there is a good amount of overlap among these subsets. But for example, I project David Montgomery to get the sixth-highest percentage of his team’s fantasy points out of the backfield. And yet he is only my RB17 overall. Our objective is to start running backs who will score the most fantasy points, not to start running backs who will score the highest percentage of their team’s backfield fantasy points.

Having said that, there are some backfields fantasy managers to navigate. There are 10 backfields in which I currently project no back to score more than 200 total fantasy points or 55 percent of his team’s backfield fantasy points.

Five Under 55

Baltimore Ravens

J.K. Dobbins should lead this backfield when healthy, but the question is when that will be. He is looking extremely questionable for Week 1. That’s too bad because Baltimore has an excellent matchup against the New York Jets. The Ravens are likely to go with some combination of Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis if Dobbins cannot go. Gus Edwards will miss the first four games of the season, but odds are that he will immediately supplant Drake and/or Davis as the number-two back upon his return. Since most backfields are healthy heading into Week 1, I would not recommend investing in Drake and Davis. If you do, sell quickly once Dobbins and Edwards once they come back.

Miami Dolphins

I have Chase Edmonds as my overall RB27 in half-PPR leagues, but I think there is a lot of upside here. Remember, it was just a year ago we all had Edmonds ranked significantly higher than James Conner. Life moves fast when you’re an NFL running back. Speaking of which, Raheem Mostert is also a candidate for backfield work in South Beach. He was also a consensus RB2 before last season. Edmonds is a skilled pass-catcher and could be a reliable safety blanket out of the backfield for Tua Tagovailoa. Mostert was once among the fastest men in the NFL. Time will tell if he can hold up after some lower body injuries. I like both a lot in Best Ball formats, where a big play can make your week. Mostert currently sits just outside my top-40 overall but is a solid stash and potential bye-week fill-in. Myles Gaskin is also in the fold if and when either Edmonds or Mostert goes down.

Seattle Seahawks

Rashaad Penny helped win a lot of leagues late in the 2021 season, and he may get the opportunity to ride that momentum into the start of this year. Ken Walker suffered a hernia and his status for Week 1 is very much in doubt. I currently have Penny projected for just over 50 percent of Seattle’s backfield points, but he should receive the lion’s share of the workload for however long Walker is sidelined. Penny recently returned from a groin injury of his own, but Travis Homer and his 64 career carries in 39 NFL games are not going to command much attention from Pete Carroll, let alone NFL defenses.

Las Vegas Raiders

There are reports that this could be a four-man committee led by Josh Jacobs. I currently have Jacobs as my RB20 overall, but relying on him as an RB2 in 12-team leagues is looking like a dicey proposition. Rookie Zamir White and veterans Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden round out the backfield. Though Bolden appears to be the low man on the totem pole, do not discount his relationship with new Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels. If Jacobs falls out of favor with McDaniels (as has been rumored at times) and White cannot adjust to the NFL game, Bolden could be a PPR option in deeper leagues. If Jacobs is serviceable, however, none of the other three would be viable weekly plays.

Atlanta Falcons

Cordarrelle Patterson seemingly came out of nowhere to come into fantasy relevance and supplant Mike Davis as Atlanta’s primary running back. Patterson should continue to lead the backfield in touches, but I barely have him getting 50 percent of the fantasy points among Falcons backs. I believe the rest will be split fairly evenly between Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier. I think Allgeier could have the highest ceiling of the three. After all, Patterson is not a natural running back, and Williams has seen just 40 NFL carries in the last two years. Both are on the wrong side of 30, while Allgeier should be relatively fresh in his first NFL season. It may not happen right away, but I love Allgeier’s upside in Best Ball formats and deeper leagues where you can stash him until he gets acclimated to the NFL game.

Five Under 50

Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are an interesting team when it comes to their fantasy backfield. Interesting is one way of putting it, at least. Miles Sanders somehow managed the incredible trick of touching the ball 163 times last season without scoring a single touchdown. Some positive touchdown regression is expected. But it does not appear the Eagles coaching staff wants to overdo it with Sanders. He averaged just under 14 touches per game a season ago. If he scores several touchdowns, then the volume will be more annoying than problematic. However, if he cannot find paydirt consistently (or if Jalen Hurts operates as Philly’s primary goal-line back), Sanders may find himself on your bench more often than in your lineup. The Eagles also have capable runners in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Scott, in particular, has been a fantasy hero at times for his innate ability to go from benchwarmer to blowup week.

New England Patriots

If you are a seasoned fantasy football manager, you know not to fully trust Patriots running backs. For now, I have Damien Harris ranked ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson in half-PPR scoring. However, in the interest of full disclosure, I will tell you that I have not drafted Harris and do not intend to. Part of that is because most of my leagues are PPR leagues, and Harris is a liability there. But part of it is that I just do not have any feel for how Bill Belichick will deploy his running backs. Stevenson is getting a lot of training camp and preseason buzz and may very well be the guy. Still, I do not trust him at his current draft price, which is right around RB30. For all we know, Ty Montgomery might resurrect his career ala Cordarrelle Patterson a year ago. OK, that scenario is probably less likely than Stevenson breaking out. I don’t mind either Harris or Stevenson in Best Ball formats, but I suspect both will cause fantasy managers headaches in Redraft leagues.

Houston Texans

I do not think any player’s draft stock has risen throughout the NFL preseason than Dameon Pierce of the Houston Texans. He is now inside my top-25 at the running back position. In leagues where I am targeting Pierce, I am also looking to snag Rex Burkhead later in the proceedings. I do not subscribe to the theory that says that you should handcuff all of your running backs. But Burkhead is a bit like Boston Scott in that he can have huge games when his number is called. Pierce has a lot of upside, but there is some risk as well, especially given the recent increase in draft price. If the rookie should falter, Burkhead will provide some stability and leadership in the backfield. I think Burkhead is a steal at his current price and would be willing to significantly jump ADP to grab him in the later rounds.

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco walked so that Dameon Pierce could run this summer. At least that’s how it seems in terms of their draft stock. Pacheco went from a late-round dart throw to a coveted mid-round pick during the summer months. That was in part due to speculation that the Chiefs would part with one of their veteran running backs. But Andy Reid kept both Jerick McKinnon and Ronald Jones, as well as Pacheco and quasi-starting back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Edwards-Helaire appears to have a leg up on the competition. And there is something to be said for that in an offense led by Patrick Mahomes. But I would honestly have very little confidence in staring any of the Chiefs backs in leagues that start two running backs and a Flex. Andy Reid knows running backs, and I believe the fact that he kept all four on the roster means that he believes none is equipped to carry the bulk of the load. He will mix and match, which should work out well in real life, but will be a minefield for fantasy managers.

Washington Commanders

Antonio Gibson’s ADP took a steady nosedive throughout training camp and the preseason. Reports of him playing special teams and being dropped on the team’s depth chart sent fantasy managers racing for other options. J.D. McKissic was the initial beneficiary, but Brian Robinson began to emerge as the preseason moved along. There were whispers that Robinson would be the team’s lead back when the regular season begins. Unfortunately, Robinson was shot last week in an attempted carjacking. The most important thing is that Robinson is alive and appeared to avoid catastrophe. He is still without a timetable to return, so the Commanders’ backfield is likely to return to last season’s dynamic. Gibson and McKissic combined to average over 130 yards from scrimmage last year, so this may be a more fruitful situation than you may think. I would try to target Gibson now that his ADP has fallen. If he has a solid start to the season, he could provide similar numbers as last season when he finished as the overall RB10 in half-PPR leagues.

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