Welcome to the first installment of the weekly OL/DL matchups column. Each week I will take our experts’ consensus rankings and highlight a matchup of the week as well as matchups on both sides of the line that we need to attack.
The focus of this column will be to assess which matchups to target (or avoid) for fantasy purposes each week. This could be from a team defense or IDP perspective on that side of the ball, while I will highlight players on offense as well. It is important to remember that we deal in small sample sizes in fantasy football, so there will be some data points that may not start to fully materialize until we get to Week 3. For now, we will lean on some combination of the expert’s rankings, matchup-specific personnel, and 2021 DVOA to dissect these matchups.
Matchup of the Week
Green Bay Packers OL (9th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Minnesota Vikings (16th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Welcome to the first installment of the weekly OL/DL matchups column. Each week I will take our experts’ consensus rankings and highlight a matchup of the week as well as matchups on both sides of the line that we need to attack.
The focus of this column will be to assess which matchups to target (or avoid) for fantasy purposes each week. This could be from a team defense or IDP perspective on that side of the ball, while I will highlight players on offense as well. It is important to remember that we deal in small sample sizes in fantasy football, so there will be some data points that may not start to fully materialize until we get to Week 3. For now, we will lean on some combination of the expert’s rankings, matchup-specific personnel, and 2021 DVOA to dissect these matchups.
Matchup of the Week
Green Bay Packers OL (9th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Minnesota Vikings (16th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Coming into 2022, the Vikings have switched to a 3-4 under Vic Fangio disciple Ed Donatell. Minnesota has plenty of talent up front, with Danielle Hunter and Dalvin Tomlinson returning to anchor the defense. Hunter has only managed to appear in seven games over the past two seasons, so he is a welcome presence at defensive end.
At 6’3, 230 pounds, Tomlinson will be expected to clog the middle and take on double teams. How well he plays will have a lot to do with the Vikings’ success defensively. Minnesota also added Harrison Phillips from Buffalo, where he played primarily on run downs. If Minnesota expects to slow down Green Bay, Tomlinson and Phillips will have to eat space in the middle of the defense. Minnesota was somewhat of a run funnel last year, so I would expect the Packers to try and attack on the ground, putting Tomlinson and Harrison in the spotlight right away.
As for Green Bay, starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are both questionable heading into Sunday. Jenkins is dealing with knee and pectoral injuries, so he looks iffy at best. If they can’t go, Yosh Nijman and Royce Newman would get the nod. Nijman is a former undrafted free agent who made eight starts when Bakhtiari went down last season. Newman could also see time at right guard, where he has arguably been more effective.
Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should play a big role in the weekly game plan for the Packers this year, but that could be especially true in Week 1. With Rodgers breaking in a group of new receivers, look for Green Bay to play at their slowish pace and try to get Jones and Dillon going early and often. I like both of them this week in a plus matchup. I would have a hard time sitting Rodgers any week, although he was being drafted as more of a QB2 this summer, so this decision depends on your other options.
Defensive Line Matchups to Attack
San Francisco 49ers DL (3rd in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Chicago Bears OL (30th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
This is the biggest on-paper mismatch of the week. The Bears have the lowest implied total on the Week 1 slate which makes the 49ers’ defense an attractive play. A strong contender to be a top-5 defense in 2022, San Francisco finished 5th in sacks and 3rd in total defense last year.
The 49ers will once again be anchored by 2021 Pro Bowler Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead. Bosa had 52 pressures last year, good for third in the NFL. Armstead blossomed after shifting inside, and his seven sacks ranked 11th among interior linemen. The 49ers fortified their defensive line in the offseason, drafting USC’s Drake Jackson in the 2nd Round. They also get Javon Kinlaw back as well. Kinlaw is a former 1st Round pick who will help Armstead to stuff the middle.
Needless to say, this is a tough Week 1 matchup for a much-maligned Chicago offensive line. San Francisco ranked 2nd in rush DVOA last year, and with Kinlaw being back, David Montgomery is going to have a tough day. The Bears did get some good news with Lucas Patrick returning to practice on Monday, but as a unit, Chicago ranked near the bottom of the league in protection rate last season.
I expect San Francisco to collapse the pocket with regularity on Sunday meaning Justin Fields will be forced to get the ball out quickly. This sets up well for Cole Kmet more than Darnell Mooney. Kmet has formed a nice connection with Fields garnering six targets in just over two quarters of playing time with Fields this preseason. It’s worth noting that Chicago should have a narrow distribution of targets, so Kmet has the safest projection of their offensive pieces.
New Orleans Saints DL (6th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Atlanta Falcons OL (28th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
This is another mismatch of Week 1, which should benefit New Orleans. The Saints had one of the league’s best defenses in 2021, finishing 1st in the league in rush DVOA and only allowing 3.7 YPC. The Falcons ranked 31st in rush DVOA offensively, so despite returning their entire OL from last year, this is not the best matchup to open the season.
New Orleans boasts a rugged interior with David Onyemeta and Shy Tuttle clogging the middle, meaning this will likely be tough sledding for Cordarrelle Patterson (and Damien Williams). Look for the Falcons to try and work Patterson primarily on runs where he can try to get to the edge, although that will probably be met with minimal success.
This could mean Atlanta is forced to go to the air early and often, making Kyle Pitts and Drake London strong leverage plays. Marcus Mariota is also firmly in play and is a sneaky QB2 this Sunday. If there is a weakness for New Orleans up front, it’s that Onymeta and Tuttle are below-average pass rushers. If Mariota can use his running ability to extend some plays or escape the pocket, he has the rushing upside we covet. The main issue here is the Saints’ defense is strong at all three levels, which makes the Falcons’ passing offense a bet-on-volume play.
Offensive Line Matchups to Attack
Philadelphia Eagles OL (1st in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Detroit Lions DL (25th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
The Eagles return all five starters from a unit that helped the offense rank 1st in yards per carry last season. The biggest news here is that Lane Johnson finally appears to be back to 100%, making the Eagles the top offensive line in football heading into the season. Keeping all five starters healthy will be a challenge, but the Eagles have plenty of depth here as well.
The Lions should be improved along the defensive line this year, especially with the addition of Aidan Hutchinson. Still, this is a tall task for a unit that ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed and 26th in rushing touchdowns given up last season. While last year’s stats and performance aren’t necessarily predictive of this year’s success, it is hard to envision a scenario where Jalen Hurts doesn’t have his way with the Lions on Sunday.
In looking at plays from the Eagles, it begins with Hurts, who should have time in the pocket to get the ball to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown, in particular, looks poised to celebrate his new team with a trip to the end zone. Smith should have the opportunity for some splash plays unless Hutchinson can disrupt Hurts enough to get him off schedule.
The Eagles running backs are also a strong play against a defense that ranked 31st in rush DVOA last year. The uncertainty with the division of labor makes for an uneasy spot to recommend anyone in particular, however. Hurts may end up being the biggest beneficiary in the Red Zone and near the goal line, making him the strongest on-paper play here.
Kansas City OL (4th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Arizona Cardinals DL (28th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
After losing Tyreek Hill, Kansas City will look much different offensively this year. The good news is that the Chiefs return their entire offensive line from 2021 to ease the transition. Keeping Patrick Mahomes upright will once again be the key here. Mahomes was a 72% passer from a clean pocket in 2021, good for 9th in the league.
The Cardinals return JJ Watt, but he just turned 33. With this being Week 1, we should see the best version we are going to get of him this year, but he is coming off the COVID-19 reserve list. The Cardinals don’t boast much behind Watt as they lost Chandler Jones to the Raiders. I don’t think it is a stretch to say Arizona has the worst defensive line in football, their ranking here notwithstanding.
The Cardinals did have the fourth-highest blitz rate in football last year, but Mahomes is deadly in that realm. If the Cardinals choose to sit back in coverage and rush four, Mahomes should be able to pick them apart relatively easily. Travis Kelce should feast underneath, and this might be a good week to fire up JuJu Smith-Schuster as well. Both Kelce and Smith-Schuster should thrive in the middle of the field where Mahomes will take what Arizona gives them.
The Chiefs should theoretically be able to run the ball this week, but their backfield situation is cloudy as any in the NFL. Maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire turns back the clock to 2020 and has another strong opener. It wouldn’t shock me to see one of these running backs get a couple of touchdowns if this turns into a shootout but good luck picking the right one.
Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
