The Chiefs and Buccaneers meet for the first time since the Bucs defeated the Chiefs in Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. This game is projected to be close. Further, it’s not projected to shoot out. Of course, there’s always a chance the elite quarterbacks can exceed the betting expectations. It’s straightforward picking players from Tampa Bay for this showdown slate. However, there’s more ambiguity for the Chiefs. Thus, that’s reflected in the following player and lineup construction suggestions.
Check out our top player prop bet picks for Sunday Night Football 
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
The Chiefs and Buccaneers meet for the first time since the Bucs defeated the Chiefs in Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. This game is projected to be close. Further, it’s not projected to shoot out. Of course, there’s always a chance the elite quarterbacks can exceed the betting expectations. It’s straightforward picking players from Tampa Bay for this showdown slate. However, there’s more ambiguity for the Chiefs. Thus, that’s reflected in the following player and lineup construction suggestions.
Check out our top player prop bet picks for Sunday Night Football
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: Kansas City's table is stuffed to the gills. Still, everything runs through Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are a pass-happy team. Kansas City has attempted only 42 rushes with their skill-position players in neutral game scripts. Conversely, Mahomes has thrown 77 passes.
Kansas City's passing tendencies have been understandable. According to Football Outsiders, they're seventh in passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and only 29th in rush DVOA. The box-score numbers have been good for Mahomes, too. He's averaging 285.7 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and only one interception. Thus, Mahomes is one of the best options on the slate and is projected to lead the slate in scoring comfortably.
Travis Kelce is Mahomes's no-doubt top pass-catching option. The stud tight end leads the Chiefs in targets (24), receptions per game (5.7), receiving yards per game (76.7) and is tied for first in touchdown receptions (two). In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kelce leads the Chiefs in routes (104) and has a juicy 2.21 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR).
The matchup is also excellent for Kelce. According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs have allowed 55.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends this year, despite Dalton Schultz being the best one they've faced by a wide margin. Finally, Kelce has gashed the Bucs in two games against Todd Bowles. Bowles is now Tampa Bay's head coach and defensive play-caller and served as their defensive coordinator and play-caller in the two previous meetings with Kelce. In Week 12 of 2020, Kelce had eight receptions for 82 yards on eight targets. Then, he had 10 receptions for 133 yards on 15 targets in the 2020 Super Bowl. So, Kelce is another elite selection in this contest.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been the second-best option in Kansas City's passing attack, averaging 4.7 receptions and 59.3 receiving yards per game. Still, he hasn't found paydirt and has just two targets in the red zone, one less than Mecole Hardman's three, tied with Marquez Valdes-Scantling's two and comfortably behind Kelce's seven. Smith-Schuster's ability to snag high-percentage passes at only an 8.1-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) gives him some value, but he's not a must-use player.
MVS is listed as questionable on Kansas City's final injury report. Hardman doesn't have an injury designation but only had limited practice participation this week while tending to a heel injury. The duo has also been ineffective, making them easy players to fade on this showdown slate.
Instead, gamers should invest in the ambiguity behind them. Jerick McKinnon has run more routes (51 versus 44) than Clyde Edwards-Helaire this year. In addition, Jet has played at least as many snaps as CEH in all three games this year, besting him in snaps rate each of the last two weeks. CEH's underwhelming usage has been masked by good touchdown fortune, scoring three. So, McKinnon's underlying usage makes him a more attractive option at his salary than CEH at his bloated salary.
Justin Watson is the most intriguing value play on this slate. It's a revenge-narrative game for those who care about silliness like that. More importantly, the speedy big-bodied wideout has been used as a rotational shot-play option. Watson has run 22 routes and garnered a target on four of them, hauling in two receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown.
Watson's usage has also been nifty. He's aligned in the slot for 16 of his 26 passing snaps and had a 16.5-yard aDOT. Watson has also had a target in the red zone.
Noah Gray has also carved out an ancillary role for the Chiefs. He's run 41 routes this season, only three fewer than CEH. Kansas City's second tight end hasn't just been getting his steps in, either. Gray has been targeted seven times, earning multiple targets in every game. Further, he's had two targets in the red zone, awarding him the potential to reach paydirt.
Finally, Skyy Moore is a speculative option since MVS and Hardman are banged-up.
Buccaneers Analysis: Leonard Fournette has been a workhorse for the Bucs this year, sporting the second-highest snap rate (85%) among running backs. He's also touched the ball at least 17 times in all three games, eclipsing 20 touches twice. Further, Lombardi Lenny has had multiple receptions and reached at least 70 scrimmage yards in each contest. As a result, Fournette is a game-script-proof option with a high ceiling.
Tom Brady has had an underwhelming start to 2022. However, he might have more help tonight.
So, the Bucs might look more like the high-powered offense they've been during Brady's first two seasons with Tampa Bay. Last year, Brady led the NFL in passing yards per game (312.7) and touchdown passes (43). Thus, gamers shouldn't be dissuaded from using Brady on the showdown slate because of a mediocre three-game stretch to open this year.
Mike Evans is the healthiest receiver on the Bucs. As a result, he's the most exciting one to use in DFS. Evans has hauled in eight receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets this year. Further, his underlying stats have been impressive, including earning a target on 23.9% of his routes and sporting a 14.0-yard aDOT, per PFF. Finally, PFF gave him a good grade on their wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart for Week 4.
Final Thoughts: Gamers should invest heavily in the stars while fitting them under the cap with some of Kansas City's intriguing value plays.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
