I am changing the format up a bit this week to take a more in-depth fantasy focus. I am also touching on six games instead of the usual three to give you some additional analysis. This week we have two major mismatches, headlined by a Philadelphia team that should have its way with Houston.
Philadelphia Eagles OL (First in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Houston Texans DL (32nd in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
This is the biggest on-paper mismatch of the week and a cherry spot for Philadelphia’s ground game. Houston has been terrible defensively and is ranked 32nd in defensive rush defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and 31st in yards per game allowed. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL, averaging 395 yards per game, and are ranked 5th in offensive rush DVOA. The only concern for me here is whether or not Philadelphia will keep its foot on the pedal, but it is hard to envision a scenario where they don’t smash.
Jalen Hurts ranks second in points per game among quarterbacks, which shouldn’t be a surprise. His rushing upside, combined with his maturation as a passer, has meshed to give him the best combination of floor/ceiling of anyone not named Josh Allen. He is a 77% passer from a clean pocket, something he should see plenty of against Houston. The Texans blitz at one of the lowest rates (16.5%) in the league, so they rely on guys like 34-year-old veteran Jerry Hughes (five sacks) to get pressure. Tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata should provide plenty of protection, giving Hurts a chance to dice up the Texans. I don’t know that there will be a lot of volume here, but AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are all firmly in play.
The play from Philadelphia I love is Miles Sanders, who should have little trouble seeing 18 touches or more. With the likely game flow here being one that sees the Eagles jump out to a big lead, Sanders has multiple touchdown upside. Going against a Texans team that is giving up 5.6 yards per carry and will probably be without their top defensive tackle in Maliek Collins, Sanders has the chance to be an RB1 this week. Hurts also has plenty of appeal here and could pop for multiple scores on the ground and through the air.
Green Bay Packers OL (Eighth in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Detroit Lions DL (30th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Detroit’s defense has been arguably the worst in football this year, setting this up as a hopeful get-right spot for Green Bay. The Lions rank 30th in defensive pass DVOA, 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in yards per game. In short, they are the Coors Field of fantasy football. Green Bay has been a dysfunctional mess in the passing game, but they have managed to be effective in running the football. They rank ninth in rush DVOA and 10th in yards per carry, with Aaron Jones enjoying his best season as a pro, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game.
With Green Bay badly needing a win, their best bet would be to give the ball to Jones and A.J. Dillon. When the Packers give those two 30 or more combined touches, they are 3-1 this season. Detroit has been gashed this year on the ground, giving up 100 yards or a touchdown to six of the seven starting running backs they’ve faced. Jones is always a threat to pop for multiple scores, and he ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, making him a slam-dunk RB1 this week. I also think Dillon is a sneaky good play this week. Neither Alim McNeill nor Isaiah Buggs should provide much resistance in the middle for Detroit, giving Dillon a path to fantasy relevance as he attacks the soft belly of the Lions’ defense.
While the wide receiver play has been uneven, a big part of the problem for Green Bay’s passing game has been the inconsistency along the offensive line. Injuries to David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have forced eight different players to make starts. Bakhtiari was active against Buffalo, but Jenkins missed the game and looks questionable this week. With these two hobbled, Aidan Hutchinson looms on the outside to make things uncomfortable for Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay did get some good news with Allen Lazard returning to practice on Wednesday. Both he and Romeo Doubs are in play as the Lions play more man coverage than any defense in the league. That said, the Packers could be in trouble if they get into a shootout here. Rodgers and his receivers haven’t shown the propensity to score points in bunches, so they would be wise to feed Jones and Dillon, who are by far my two favorite plays.
Baltimore Ravens OL (Ninth in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ New Orleans Saints DL (13th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
New Orleans has fallen off a bit from where they were at to start the year. They rank 11th in defensive pass DVOA and 12th in rush DVOA, so they’re tending toward the mean. They’re also giving up 25 points per game which ranks 28th in the league, despite shutting out Las Vegas in Week 8. Now they get a Baltimore team that is starting to hit its stride despite several injuries to skill-position players. The Ravens are sixth in the league in total yards and top-five in both rushing and passing DVOA offensively. This sets up far better for Baltimore than the matchup looks, and their offensive line should control things.
The Saints shut down Josh Jacobs on Sunday, which is something few teams have been able to do this year. However, the Ravens’ rushing offense is a bird of a different feather, as they combined plenty of zone read and run pass option (RPO) concepts as part of their scheme. Baltimore could be without their inside hammer, Gus Edwards, who suffered a hamstring injury last Thursday. If he is out, Kenyan Drake will assume most of the workload. The Ravens like to run behind center Tyler Lindenbaum and guards Ben Powers and Kevin Zeitler, but this isn’t an area where Drake excels. Keep a close eye on the health of Edwards here. If he plays, he can be fired up in a flex capacity, but with this being a Monday night game, that might not be a chance you want to take.
Saving the most important piece of the Ravens’ offense for last, Lamar Jackson presents a unique challenge for New Orleans up front on defense. His running ability is arguably the best among any quarterback in the NFL, as he ranks first in the position (and on the Ravens) with 553 rushing yards this year. Defensive ends Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport will be busy chasing Jackson down, and the Saints will need to be disciplined in their contains as he will stress the edge all night. Jackson’s usage alone puts him in the weekly overall QB1 conversation, but this game has some shootout potential. The only thing holding Jackson back from a true blowup game would be the injuries to his supporting cast, as Mark Andrews has been limited, and it looks like Rashod Bateman won’t play. Even so, this could mean Jackson shoulders most of the load, making him the primary play here.
Quick Hits
Tennessee Titans DL (13th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Kansas City OL (Fourth in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
As per the usual for a Mike Vrabel team, Tennessee runs the ball well and stops the run well. The trouble is, Tennessee is 30th in pass DVOA and 23rd in the league, giving up over 250 passing yards per game. Those numbers are ugly, but they are even more troublesome in the context of going against Patrick Mahomes. There is a silver lining: Tennessee is 23rd in blitz rate (19.3%), but ninth in QB pressure rate, but the Kansas City offensive line should hold up well here. I would expect a pass-heavy game Sunday night for Kansas City, with Mahomes and Travis Kelce having a big night.
Las Vegas Raiders DL (12th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Jacksonville Jaguars OL (14th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Las Vegas just coughed up 158 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to Alvin Kamara. Now they get a similar style back in Travis Etienne (with less receiving volume), who is coming off a 156-yard performance over Denver. The Raiders are 28th in defensive rush DVOA and have been susceptible to the run all year. However, I think we are seeing Etienne blossom into one of the better backs in the league, and he continues his hot streak on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals OL (21st in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Carolina Panthers DL (24th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
The Bengals’ offensive line looked putrid Monday night, with Joe Burrow getting sacked five times. The good news is that Carolina is tied for 30th in the league with just 12 sacks as a team. Brian Burns is one of the elite young talents in the league coming off the edge, but outside of him, Carolina has virtually no pass rush. The Bengals are 27th in the league in protection rate, so something has to give here. I’ll give the edge to Cincinnati by the narrowest of margins, but this could be a tricky game. Getting Joe Mixon going against the 20th-ranked rush defense in the league would be a welcome change as well.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
