The NFL Conference Championship matchups feature four evenly matched clubs. Thus, the spreads are narrow. The clubs are all somewhat top-heavy, creating a need to fade a few of the studs. Further, gamers need to hone in on values to offset the high-salaried players. Moreover, getting creative with tournament selections on such a small slate is imperative.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Conference Championship Matchups
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey had only 57 scrimmage yards last year. However, he scored a touchdown and hauled in six receptions. Further, he's been a monster for the 49ers. CMC averaged 110 scrimmage yards per game, 4.7 receptions per game and scored 10 touchdowns in 11 games in the regular season for San Francisco. In two postseason games this year, he's averaged 96.5 scrimmage yards per game, 4.0 receptions per game and scored two touchdowns.
The contextual info is good for CMC, too. First, according to Football Outsiders, the 49ers are fourth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.70). Second, Philadelphia's 13th in rush defense DVOA since Week 13. Third, per The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles allowed the 11th-mot receptions per game to running backs in the final six weeks of the regular season. And, of course, McCaffrey is a game-script-proof stud. So, he's one of the most attractive options on this week's NFL DFS slate.
George Kittle and Brock Purdy are on the same page. Since Week 15, he's hauled in seven touchdowns, had at least four receptions five times and bested 90 receiving yards three times. Furthermore, his matchup is good this week. From Week 13 through Week 18, the Eagles allowed the sixth-most DraftKings and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Jauan Jennings is one of the most intriguing value picks on the two-game slate. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's run the fifth-most routes (52) for the 49ers in their previous three games. Jennings was targeted on a rock-solid 17.3% of his routes, parlaying his looks into five receptions for 77 yards.
Additionally, Jennings ran the most routes (29) from the slot among San Francisco's wideouts during that period. His usage is a plus for this matchup. Per The 33rd Team, Philadelphia allowed the 13th-most DK and FD points per game to slot wideouts from Week 13 through Week 18 and held perimeter wideouts to the sixth-fewest DK and FD points per game.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles thoroughly whooped the Giants last week. Still, Jalen Hurts provided evidence that he shook off the rust from his return in Week 18. The dual-threat quarterback completed 66.7% of his passes, tossed two touchdowns, ran nine times, had 34 rushing yards and scored once on the ground. Hurts' running potential is unrivaled by any of the other quarterbacks on the slate.
The matchup is challenging, but only one quarterback has a soft matchup this week. Therefore, Hurts' tricky matchup can be forgiven. Additionally, the betting info is favorable since the Eagles have the highest implied total. Thus, Hurts is a superb pick.
The matchup is good for Philadelphia's wideouts. DeVonta Smith was the Eagles' most productive pass-catcher in their previous four games. However, A.J. Brown was a big-play option. PFF also gives him the largest matchup advantage among wideouts this week on their wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
Further, Brown's played in the slot a bit more than Smith lately, enhancing the appeal of the former. San Francisco allowed the third-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers from Week 13 through Week 18. Yet, they allowed more DK and FD points per game to slot wide receivers. So, gamers should be willing to spend a little more salary on Brown than Smith, despite the second-year wideout outplaying Brown lately.
Dallas Goedert has been involved since returning in Week 16 from his knee injury. He's hauled in 17 receptions for 216 yards and one touchdown. His matchup is sweet, too. The 49ers permitted the sixth-most DK and the seventh-most FD points per game to tight ends from Week 13 through Week 18.
Quez Watkins hasn't made much noise lately. Still, he's run the fourth-most routes (86) in Philly's previous four games. And the matchup is also outstanding for him, namely since he led Philly's wide receivers in slot snaps (68) in the past four games. Thus, gamers shouldn't sleep on Watkins.
Kenneth Gainwell is one of two usable value options at running back. He popped up for 112 rushing yards, one reception, nine receiving yards and one touchdown last week. Thus, gamers might point chase. Still, Gainwell's run the most routes among Philadelphia's running backs in their last four games, and the 49ers allowed the seventh-most receptions and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs from Week 13 through Week 18. Finally, he runs behind a top-shelf offensive line. The Eagles are sixth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.66). Gamers looking to save some salary at running back should slot Gainwell into one of their running back spots.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: CIN -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are road favorites. They're a well-rounded team, and the offense has the softest matchup of the four remaining teams. The Chiefs are 15th in pass defense and 20th in rush defense DVOA since Week 13. Frankly, the ineptitude of Kansas City's defense is an outlier in the Conference Championship Round.
Joe Burrow surgically carved up Buffalo's defense last week, passing for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Now, he'll face a lesser defense. Burrow has also thrived against the Chiefs, averaging 327.3 passing yards per game and throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception against them in three contests.
The third-year quarterback can also add value on the ground. He averaged 16.1 rushing yards per game, rushed for 31 yards last week, scampered for 46 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 11 carries against the Chiefs in Week 13 and rushed for 25 yards against them in the AFC Championship game last year. So, while Burrow's rushing upside doesn't rival Hurts's, he's not a non-factor. And since Burrow has the softest matchup of the four quarterbacks, he should pile up points through the air.
Ja'Marr Chase is the alpha in Cinci's pass-catching corps, with all due respect to Tee Higgins. The second-year wideout has distanced himself from Higgins and has a mouthwatering matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (81.2) to No. 1 wide receivers. Additionally, they've held No. 2 wideouts to the 10th-fewest receiving yards per game (44.7). So, the matchup is markedly more appealing for Chase than Higgins.
The second-year wideout has been a force to be reckoned with, too. He had at least 60 receiving yards and five receptions in his last 10 games. He caught at least seven passes in nine of his last 10 contests, and he's had a touchdown in three straight games and seven of his past nine games. As a result, Chase is the most attractive wide receiver on this week's DFS slate.
Hayden Hurst is the most attractive ancillary pass-catching option for the Bengals, salary considered. In fact, he was tied for second in targets (17) and second in receptions (13) and receiving yards (118) for the Bengals since Week 18 when he returned from his injury. Hurst even splashed paydirt last week. Finally, the matchup is tasty. The Chiefs allowed the eighth-most DK and the sixth-most FD points per game to tight ends from Week 13 through Week 18.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have a Charmin-soft matchup on the ground. Mixon has the best chance to pile up fantasy points on the ground since he's dominated backfield rushes. Mixon toted the rock 42 times versus 15 for Perine in Cincinnati's last three games. Mixon's also coming off a dominant performance where he rumbled for 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts.
Meanwhile, Perine can chip in as a change of pace and holds an edge in playing time on passing snaps. In the same three-game sample noted for rush attempts above, Perine ran 57 routes compared to 46 for Mixon. Nevertheless, Mixon was more productive, reeling in 10 receptions for 76 scoreless yards on 11 targets compared to six for 35 on seven for Perine. Still, Perine's usage gives him a case for use against a defense that allowed the sixth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards per game to running backs from Week 13 through Week 18.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes has fully practiced so far this week, alleviating some concerns about his high-ankle sprain. Nevertheless, there's a case for fading him on this two-game slate against a defense that's held him in check, and playing with an ankle injury could hamper his rushing potential.
Instead, chasing Kansas City's passing output through his runaway top pass-catching option is advisable. Travis Kelce is easily Kansas City's top weapon in the passing attack. He led the Chiefs in every meaningful receiving category this season. The stud tight end also had more than twice as many targets and receptions than any of Kansas City's players in their previous five games.
Kelce's also entering this game on the heels of a blow-up performance. He torched the Jaguars for 14 receptions, 98 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals held him to only 56 receiving yards on four receptions earlier this year, but the matchup is still a plus. Cincinnati allowed the seventh-most DK and ninth-most FD points per game to tight ends from Week 13 through Week 18. Obviously, since Kelce is the fourth tight end included in this piece, it's a perfect week to double up on tight ends, slotting one in as a flex. Still, Kelce's the cream of the crop at the position.
The Kadarius Toney takeover hasn't happened. It probably won't happen. Nonetheless, the second-year wideout was targeted on one-third of his 45 routes in his last five games, converting 15 targets into 13 receptions for 138 yards and one touchdown reception. The Chiefs have also fed Toney four rush attempts for 40 rushing yards and a touchdown in his last two games. His unique role caps Toney's upside, but his explosiveness and high touch rate relative to his playing time make him a sweet value pick.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a cardio king. He runs tons of routes without earning targets. The story is the same for MVS as it's always been. The speedy wideout's field-stretching ability is a threat for a deep reception at any time. And it doesn't hurt playing with an improvisational quarterback with a rocket arm like Mahomes. MVS had under 30 receiving yards in his previous six games. However, he had 71 receiving yards against the Bengals in Week 13, and he's scored touchdowns in two of his last five games, including reaching paydirt last week. The floor is low for MVS, but there are enough positives to support using him as a value pick.
Jerick McKinnon was relatively quiet last week. He had 11 carries for 25 scoreless yards and didn't earn a single target. Per Pro-Football-Reference, McKinnon also led the Chiefs' backfield in offensive snap rate, though. He played 65% of Kansas City's offensive snaps versus 35% for Isiah Pacheco.
McKinnon's also shown his pass-catching chops this year. He had 18 receptions for 153 yards in his previous five games and a team-high five receiving touchdowns. Mahomes could also theoretically lean on his pass-catching back more often instead of scrambling since his ankle is dinged up. Finally, the Chiefs are third in Adjusted Line Yards (4.82), slightly increasing McKinnon's value on his occasional rush attempts.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
