There’s no offseason when it comes to fantasy football, especially through the lens of dynasty fantasy football. With free agency and the NFL draft rapidly approaching, the time is now to start organizing your plan of attack for the offseason. And whether you are returning dynasty manager or are just looking to get started, my following list of must-have dynasty targets for startups and trades will help you head in the right direction.
Let the off-season dynasty fantasy craze commence!
Erickson’s Must-Have Dynasty Startup Players (2023 Fantasy Football)
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Jordan Love is slated to start for the Green Bay Packers in 2023 after sitting on the bench behind a future HOFer, Aaron Rodgers, for the past three seasons. Love was viewed as a raw prospect — a poor man’s Patrick Mahomes because of his traits and ability to make off-script plays –– who needed time to marinate entering the league, so I am cautiously optimistic about his prospects this season and beyond. He played well in limited action in 2022 — 6-for-9 for 113 yards and 1 TD versus the Eagles in Week 12 — and possesses athletic traits that could translate to rushing production.
The weapons in Green Bay aren’t exactly elite, but there’s room for this offense to be a surprise if second-year wide receivers like Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs take another step in Year 2. Both guys can deliver downfield splash plays, which Rodgers didn’t necessarily take full advantage of last season. He went deep at the seventh-highest rate last season but finished below average in adjusted completion percentage, PFF passing grade and yards per attempt on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
Love is currently my QB25 in both dynasty and redraft formats, assuming that Rodgers will not be in Green Bay in 2023. But in the FantasyPros dynasty trade value chart, Love is the QB30 wedged between guys like Jimmy Garoppolo and Hendon Hooker. Hooker is a rookie who is already older than Love.
Ergo, Love is egregiously underpriced for a former first-round pick who still isn’t 25 years old yet. He is under contract until 2024, and the Packers have a fifth-year option available to them. The former Utah State quarterback has the chance to thrive in the Packers’ run-pass option (RPO) offense after so much time spent learning the system.
Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
A stronger case should have been made that the Browns’ offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb‘s 1A in a split backfield. Hunt’s bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly three more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient, with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over, which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team’s bell cow. The 28-year-old and former league-leading rusher is an absolute steal as the RB41 in the FantasyPros dynasty trade value chart. Don’t forget — he was a top-10 running back in PPR before an injury in 2021.
Hunt is my RB18 in my dynasty rankings.
If the Eagles let Miles Sanders walk, I could easily see them bringing in Hunt as his one-for-one replacement. Howie Roseman has connections to John Dorsey, who drafted Hunt and helped bring him to Cleveland after he was released from the Chiefs. They were also heavily linked to Hunt before this year’s past trade deadline.
Andy Kwong from Revenge of the Birds also brings up that Arizona could be a potential landing spot for Hunt (or several other Browns impending FAs) based on the hire of former Browns QB coach Drew Petzing as the Cardinal’s new offensive coordinator. Miami has also been in the rumor mill to be interested in Hunt’s services, and that’s an ideal landing spot for a major spike in fantasy value. So get him now before he signs.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Antonio Gibson’s production fell off substantially in 2022 as he split work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. In Gibson’s last nine healthy games played – he missed the end of the year with a foot injury that required surgery – he and Robinson operated as fantasy RB3s as the RB34 and RB30, respectively, in points per game. AG was still the much more involved receiver with an impressive 14% target share – three catches, four targets and 22 receiving yards per game — but he was out-carried by 9.7 rushing attempts per game to 16.7 by Robinson.
B-Rob’s status as the starter on early downs entering the season will surely make Gibson (a free agent at the end of 2023) an enticing buy-low running back target based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production his first two years in the league. Keep in mind that J.D. McKissic is coming off a neck injury with an out in his contract, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson’s 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.
Gibson is the RB32 in the FantasyPros dynasty trade value chart. He is my RB15 in my dynasty rankings. If being too high on 25-year-old running backs with ideal size, a three-down skillset and proven production is wrong, I don’t want to be right.
I understand that his value is suppressed due to the presence of Robinson in Washington’s offense, but all that suggests is Gibson will likely be on another team sooner rather than later. And a new environment could be a major boon to his dynasty stock, as we so often see with running backs. One also needs to consider that new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy may not favor Robinson over Gibson as much as former coaches. I would love to see him in a Jerick McKinnon role in Washington.
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Rookie quarterbacks are a bad bet for supporting viable fantasy WR production. That was my main argument against drafting Diontae Johnson in Rounds 4 & 5 in 2022 redrafts and start-up leagues last year, which turned out to be the correct approach. Johnson underwhelmed with Kenny Pickett all season, failing to top more than 65 receiving yards or a weekly finish better than WR37. But in the case of Johnson for 2023, I’d expect a major bounce back for Johnson with Pickett entering Year 2.
Johnson’s ability to command targets — 28% target share and 137 targets (7th) in 2022 — suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don’t tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on Johnson. He was the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game. And per ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight WR model, Johnson finished with the No. 1 open rate among all WRs in 2022.
Johnson seems inevitably to be one of the most talented and discounted wide receivers to acquire during the 2023 dynasty offseason. He didn’t score last season – likely a fluke — and second-year WR George Pickens is a darling in the fantasy dynasty community. But DJ is still the more proven asset and will enter his age-27 season with two more years remaining on his contract.
Guys don’t post back-to-back seasons with 26% or higher target shares by accident. Johnson ranks sixth in target share since 2021. And yet he’s WR33 in the FantasyPros Dyntasy trade value chart. He is currently WR26 in my dynasty rankings.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Jerry Jeudy stands out to me as a dynasty target because he has full-blown breakout potential after an extremely underrated 2022 campaign. No player scored more fantasy points in PPR with a sub-75% overall route participation than Jeudy in 2022. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%).
And in Jeudy’s last six games: 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71).
He will turn 24 years old this season, and I can’t possibly envision Russell Wilson playing worse than he did in 2022 under Sean Payton’s coaching. There are also quiet rumors that Courtland Sutton is being floated in trade talks, fully solidifying the franchise’s faith in Jeudy as their looked-and-loaded No. 1 wide receiver.
Jeudy’s dynasty trade value is WR29, eight spots lower than my ranking at WR21. Lez ride.
David Njoku (TE – CLE)
Only Travis Kelce saw more red-zone targets among tight ends from Weeks 1-17 than David Njoku in 2022. But he scored just thrice. If Deshaun Watson‘s TD rate regresses closer to his career rate (5.8%) another year back into football, Njoku will be a top fantasy tight end in 2023 and for years to come in Cleveland.
The soon-to-be 27-year-old could absolutely explode, considering his 2022 usage as a full-time player (top-10 route participation) that the Browns have committed to him being. The athletic pass-catcher finished last season sixth in PFF receiving grade and inside the top 10 in several other efficiency metrics, including yards after the catch and yards per route run. It was easily his best professional season since 2018.
Njoku is TE8 per the FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart but slots in at TE6 in my latest dynasty rankings.
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