NFC East

Dallas Cowboys – Dak Prescott
Seeing Dak Prescott as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in ECR was shocking. Even if we gloss over Kellen Moore’s departure, we can’t escape the pace and passing rate worries surrounding Mike McCarthy. Last year Prescott was the QB13 in fantasy points per game and QB21 in expected fantasy points per game. Splitting the difference here with a mid-QB2 valuation on Prescott feels more appropriate. – DBro

New York Giants – Darren Waller
Sure, Waller was terrific in 2019 and 2020, but that was a long time ago. In the two seasons since, he’s missed 14 games, and he’s scored only five touchdowns in the 20 games he’s been able to suit up for. In 2019-2020, Waller averaged 73.2 receiving yards per game. In 2021-2022, he averaged 52.7 receiving yards per game. Waller will turn 31 in September. He’ll be adjusting to a new quarterback and a new system. And, oh, by the way, Waller will also be facing a difficult schedule littered with a bunch of the teams that were toughest on TEs in 2022. Draft him at your own risk. – Fitzmaurice

Philadelphia Eagles – D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift finds himself in a new situation after being traded from the Lions to the Philadelphia Eagles. While his efficiency in 2022 was impressive, his injury history and lack of projected usage in the passing game may temper expectations for his fantasy output in 2023.

Despite missing time due to injury in his final year with Detroit, Swift still showed promise, ranking fourth in fantasy points per touch and third in yards per carry among all RBs. He was able to create yards after contact and remained efficient on a per-touch basis despite his reduced workload in the Lions’ offense. However, he struggled to find the end zone and didn’t receive the featured role in Detroit’s backfield. Now in Philadelphia, Swift should benefit from a change in scenery and the opportunity for more involvement in the offense.

However, he will have to compete with Rashaad Penny for touches, who has shown himself to be a solid rusher in his own right. Additionally, the Eagles ranked last in RB target share in 2022 (12%), which could limit Swift’s value as a receiver. Despite the uncertainties, Swift’s talent is undeniable and he should be productive on a per-touch basis in 2023. However, fantasy managers should be aware of his injury history and the potential for limited receiving work in the Eagles’ offense. While Swift has the potential to be a league-winner (people will convince themselves) there is massive risk involved with his RB19-22 ADP. – Erickson

Washington Commanders – Brian Robinson Jr.
From Week 6 onward, Brian Robinson displayed his volume-driven production, averaging 17.8 carries and over 70 rushing yards per game. He proved to be a reliable option on the ground, earning praise from PFF with a high grade. However, fantasy managers were left wanting more due to his limited involvement in the passing game, with just nine receptions and a minimal target share. It’s important to note that Robinson’s lack of explosiveness and his style as a “plodder” runner may hinder his chances of becoming a true fantasy star.

However, with the Washington Commanders’ improved offensive line in 2023, Robinson “should” be a reliable option as an RB2/RB3, providing steady production on the ground if he sees the same volume as last season. However, fantasy managers should exercise caution to avoid overpaying for a two-down grinder on a team that faces one of the most challenging projected schedules based on forecasted betting win totals. While Robinson brings value with his workload, it’s crucial to consider the overall situation before investing too heavily in his fantasy stock. – Erickson

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NFC North

Chicago Bears – D.J. Moore
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been a huge supporter of D.J. Moore, but his open score falling to 67th out of 82 qualifying wide receivers last year is concerning. Also, factor in the low pass rate for Chicago this season, and it makes it difficult to push the button on Moore as a top-24 wide receiver. – DBro

Detroit Lions – Jameson Williams
Despite my initial admiration for Jameson Williams as he entered the NFL, his rookie season left much to be desired. Coming off a torn ACL, it was understandable that he was eased back into action. However, finishing the season with just one catch on eight targets, albeit a 41-yard touchdown, is underwhelming. Adding to the concerns, Williams is set to serve a six-game suspension to open the upcoming season, making it challenging to justify his top-100 overall ADP, particularly in non-best-ball formats. – Fitzmaurice

While it’s possible that I may be overanalyzing the balance between Williams’ talent and his suspension, it’s crucial to acknowledge the increased uncertainty surrounding his draft value. Just know that if you want in on the Williams’ hype train it won’t be at the discount it should be. Williams was extremely limited in 2022 with just 34 routes run. The former 12th overall draft pick was hyper-targeted when on the field with a 26% target rate per route run to go along with the league’s 6th-highest average depth of target. – Erickson

Green Bay Packers – A.J. Dillon
With 16 touchdowns in 45 career games, Dillon hasn’t been able to establish himself as a goal-line specialist even though he’s 247 pounds. He contributes little as a pass catcher, and he has nothing close to a monopoly on early-down work for the Packers because teammate Aaron Jones is a better player. Dillon has averaged 1.8 targets a game over his three seasons, and he’s topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage only once, with 1,116 yards in 2021. NFL fans love their big backs — Earl Campbell, Derrick Henry, Mike Alstott, Craig “Ironhead” Heyward — but our love for the king-sized Dillon has thus far been unrequited. – Fitzmaurice

Minnesota Vikings – T.J. Hockenson
Last year after arriving in Minnesota, T.J. Hockenson saw a 21.8% target share (sixth-best) and 26% target per route run rate (11th-best). With the arrival of Jordan Addison, those numbers aren’t coming back. Hockenson had no problems beating out K.J. Osborn and a washed Adam Thielen for targets despite only ranking 30th in yards per route run over his final ten games. Addison won’t be such a pushover. Addison is immensely talented and can play both the boundary and the slot. After last year Hockenson is being valued as a borderline elite tight end which he is not. – DBro

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NFC South

Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts
I don’t think it’s possible to view Kyle Pitts as anything but overrated as he enters his 3rd NFL season. He’s drastically underperformed for two straight seasons after coming out with extremely high expectations that many young players could never reach. The QB situation in Atlanta has hurt him dramatically, but we cannot keep coming up for excuses for Pitts. He has target competition with second-year stud Drake London, and could easily take a backseat to a ground game led by Bijan Robinson. I don’t think Pitts is an overrated talent, but his fantasy value as TE5 has fantasy drafters grimacing as the push the draft button, knowing he’s destined for split usage with Jonnu Smith/Parker Hesse (woof) in a Desmond Ridder-led offense. – Erickson

Carolina Panthers – Adam Thielen
Stick a fork in him. He’s done. Last year Thielen ranked 52nd in open score (per ESPN analytics). He fell outside the top 60 receivers in yards per route run, and yards per team pass attempt. Avoid aged wide receiver landmines. – DBro

New Orleans Saints – Michael Thomas
Despite a strong performance in his three healthy games in 2022, it’s difficult to overlook the concerns surrounding Michael Thomas in fantasy football. In those games, he recorded 16 catches for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns, demonstrating his ability to make an impact when on the field. However, the bigger issue lies in Thomas’ availability. Over the past three seasons, he has played in just 10 games, making it difficult for fantasy managers to rely on him consistently. Additionally, at 30 years old, Thomas is reaching a point in his career where durability becomes even more of a concern. Another worrisome factor is his career-low yards per route run in 2022, which stood at 1.64. While Thomas has shown flashes of greatness, his recent injury history and declining production raise doubts about his ability to deliver consistent fantasy production going forward. – Erickson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Evans
It pains me to pin the “overrated” label on Evans, who might eventually have a bust in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he’s a dicey fantasy investment this year. After catching passes from either Jameis Winston (who was never afraid to make a risky throw to Evans) or Tom Brady for most of his career, Evans will spend the 2023 season trying to catch passes from either Baker Mayfield or possibly Kyle Trask. D.J. Moore‘s prediction withered in Carolina last season when he was paired with Mayfield, only to perk up against when the Panthers dumped Mayfield and reinserted Sam Darnold at quarterback. Evans himself endured an 11-game touchdown drought last season, the longest of his career. Even after he ended the drought with a three-TD game in Week 17, Evans finished the season with six touchdowns, third-fewest of his career. Evans has been one of the most reliable fantasy assets in the game for a long time, but he’s an easy fade for 2023. – Fitzmaurice

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NFC West

Arizona Cardinals – Marquise Brown 
Can we stop wishcasting stardom for Hollywood Brown until he actually starts performing like a star? Brown has been in the league for four years and has finished with fewer than 800 receiving yards in three of them. His TD production has been modest — 24 TDs in 58 regular-season games. Brown has a career average of 7.2 yards per target. That’s not a good number. For sake of comparison, one of the players Brown has been compared to, DeSean Jackson, averaged 9.8 yards per target for his career. Maybe there’s still a 1,300-yard, 10-TD season lurking for Hollywood, but we haven’t seen nearly enough to suggest that a monstrous breakout season is inevitable. – Fitzmaurice

Los Angeles Rams – Tyler Higbee
Higbee squandered his volume last year, and it’s hard to imagine him not doing so again in 2023. Last season despite ranking fourth in target share and overall target volume among tight ends, Higbee was the TE15 in fantasy. Woof! Higbee won’t be among my late-round tight-end targets this year. – DBro

San Francisco 49ers – Deebo Samuel
Deebo Samuel’s role in this offense has been neutered. He’s been regulated to low aDOT empty volume on a run-heavy offense. Samuel hasn’t crested 14.0 fantasy points per game in either season in this role. Samuel is a WR3 being drafted as a top-20 option at the position. – DBro

Seattle Seahawks – DK Metcalf
While DK Metcalf possesses undeniable talent and the potential to be the Seattle Seahawks’ primary wide receiver, it’s important to consider his value in fantasy football drafts. Selecting Metcalf significantly earlier than his teammates may not be the most strategic move. In 2022, Tyler Lockett outperformed Metcalf, finishing as the WR12 overall and WR15 in points per game, despite both players having identical target shares in 2021. The emergence of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba further adds to the target competition in the offense. For Metcalf to justify his WR15 average draft position (ADP), he heavily relies on a bounce-back in touchdown production. In 2022, he recorded a career-low of six receiving touchdowns, despite posting personal bests in receptions (90) and targets (141) – Erickson

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