In the ever-evolving world of dynasty fantasy football, finding the right rookies to build your team around is crucial for long-term success. However, not all rookies are destined for greatness, and some might be overvalued in drafts. Our featured experts are here to discuss the most overvalued rookies you should avoid in your dynasty fantasy football leagues. They’ve compiled a list of players who may seem like promising prospects but could end up disappointing. From running backs with limited receiving upside to wide receivers overshadowed by established players, our experts have identified the rookies that are not worth their current price tags.
Here are their choices and accompanying justifications.
- Updated Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers: QB
- NFL Draft Grades for Every Team
- Thor’s Draft Grades (AFC | NFC)
- NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers (Day 2 | Day 3)
- Fitz’s Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (Day 2 | Day 3)
Overvalued Rookies to Avoid in Dynasty Leagues
1. Who is an overvalued rookie RB based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?
Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)
“Zach Charbonnet worries me to death. The Seahawks seemingly found a workhorse RB in the 2nd round last year in Kenneth Walker, but they drafted another 2nd round RB this year. I can’t figure out why, but to me, this hurts both Walker and Charbonnet for fantasy. Worst case scenario Charbonnet barely sees the ball. That kind of floor is something I generally avoid in the 1st round of rookie drafts if possible.”
– Andrew Hall (Dynasty Dorks)
“Zach Charbonnet was the RB3 in the draft class before Pete Carroll decided to crush everyone’s hopes and dreams. While the former UCLA star is a talented running back, Ken Walker III still leads the Seattle backfield. The best-case scenario for fantasy players is that Walker pulls away from Charbonnet and earns a featured role, making the former UCLA star an expensive handcuff. However, I expect this backfield to be a 60-40 split, hurting both players’ fantasy value. I would rather draft a wide receiver or Dalton Kincaid with my first-round rookie pick and target a running back like Roschon Johnson in the second round.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“This might be a good landing spot for Zach Charbonnet in terms of real NFL value, but he finds himself behind Kenneth Walker, who is only one year into his rookie deal and will likely be a part of the Seahawks for several years yet. Charbonnet likely sees more work than Walker in the passing game, but if he’s limited to only that work and doesn’t get goal-line work then he will have some high-variance weeks. Walker isn’t a perfect three-down running back, but he showed enough last year to be clearly the RB1 in this backfield.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
“Kendre Miller is coming off the board early in the second round of 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and in the middle of the second round in superflex rookie drafts, which seems pricey. Since dynasty leagues are usually full-point PPR, I try to avoid running backs who don’t have much pass-catching potential, and Miller didn’t get much usage as a receiver during his college career at TCU. Miller could be a solid early-down back, but FantasyPros college football and NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom ranked Miller as the 13th-best back in this year’s RB class. It’s possible Miller could play a significant role this season if Saints RB Alvin Kamara is suspended for an incident in Las Vegas that he’s been charged for, but Miller currently sits behind Kamara and Jamaal Williams on the New Orleans depth chart. I’m struggling to see the appeal.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
2. Who is an overvalued rookie WR based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
“Cedric Tillman is going in the 2nd round of most drafts I’ve seen so far, but I’m passing. The Browns have Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku ahead of Tillman. They drafted David Bell last year and barely used him at all. I’m expecting a similar output for Tillman this season, unfortunately. Much like Bell, I’ll just wait and trade for him in October once he starts the season slowly.”
– Andrew Hall (Dynasty Dorks)
Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
“While Marvin Mims was an excellent pick for the Broncos, I can’t image ranking him as a top-seven wide receiver in this draft class. Denver already has three talented wide receivers on the roster and an impressive second-year tight end. Unfortunately, Mims will need one of them to miss significant time or get traded to warrant his current ranking. I draft Jonathan Mingo, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed over Mims.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
“The Colts aren’t blessed with a huge amount of options at wide receiver. Having lost Parris Campbell in free agency, they sought to replace him with Isaiah McKenzie, who joins Michael Pittman and Alex Pierce as the main receiving options. Downs is an excellent route runner, but like many receivers in this class, is undersized at 5’9″, 171lbs. With a rookie quarterback and a new offense being installed in Indianapolis, it feels like you’ve got to hope for several factors to click together in order for this pick to pay off.”
– Tom Strachan (NFL Best Ball)
Nathaniel Dell (WR – HOU)
“Discrimination is ugly, but I confess to being a sizeist in evaluating wide receivers, which is why I have no interest in Nathaniel “Tank” Dell. The 5-8, 165-pound Dell moves like mercury and can be hard for cornerbacks to cover, but I worry that he won’t be able to shake NFL corners as easily as he eluded college corners, and at his size he’s going to automatically be neutralized if defenders can get their hands on him in press coverage. I might have been willing to consider Dell in rookie drafts if he brought elite speed to the table, but his 40 time at the combine was 4.49. That’s fine for a 200-pound receiver, but not for a 165-pound sprite. (Dell has a dreadful 6th percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com.) It was surprising that the Texans spent a third-round pick on Dell, and that sort of draft capital is obviously driving interest in him. It’s hard to envision Dell being able to carve out a fantasy-relevant role in a work-in-process offense that will have a rookie, C.J. Stroud, at quarterback.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts (Post NFL Draft)
- Superflex, 4 Rounds
- Superflex, 5 Rounds
- 12-Team, PPR, 3 Rounds
- Post-Round 1 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock Draft
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
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