Safest Draft Pick on Each NFL Team (2023 Fantasy Football)

Identifying breakout candidates is a great way to get more production at a lower cost on draft day. But every player on your team won’t be a breakout candidate. You need those safe and reliable players to provide a solid foundation for your fantasy squads.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the safest picks on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

Safest Fantasy Football Draft Pick on Each NFL Team

AFC East

Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

Fantasy QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the past three seasons. – Erickson

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

You could make a strong case for either of Miami’s starting wide receivers. I give the nod to Jaylen Waddle over Tyreek Hill because Waddle has only been in the league for two years and has thrived in two very different roles — as a short-area receiver in 2021, and as more of a vertical receiver in 2022. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)

The human meat shield James Robinson couldn’t even make it to July. And don’t get me started on the twig-built Ty Montgomery. This is Rhamondre Stevenson’s backfield. – Erickson

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)

As a rookie, Garrett Wilson was posting fantasy WR1 numbers with Mike White and Joe Flacco. – Erickson

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

AFC North

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

Jackson posted the 5th-lowest bust rate at the QB position in 2022, despite dealing with a plethora of injuries to his pass-catchers. – Erickson

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

I simply cannot spot a flaw in Ja’Marr Chase‘s game that would suggest he doesn’t have the highest floor on the Bengals offense. He’s the easy favorite to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, attached to the NFL’s best pure pocket passer. – Erickson

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

Nick Chubb wakes up averaging 5 yards per carry under any circumstances. – Erickson

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

Najee Harris has topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, and he’s a very capable pass catcher. He’s been operating behind mediocre offensive lines (though the Steelers dramatically upgraded that unit in the offseason), and he fought through a Lisfranc injury early last season. Najee has yet to miss an NFL game due to injury. – Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

AFC South

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)

Dameon Pierce is the best bet in the offense for weekly volume and scoring opportunities. This Houston coaching staff has so many ties to the San Francisco 49ers that their offensive identity will almost assuredly be tied to the ground game. Pierce will vacuum up the volume this year if he can hold up. – DBro

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

With rookie QB Anthony Richardson taking the helm of the Indy offense at some point early in the season, there are no truly safe bets in the Colts’ passing game. That leaves Taylor, whose 2022 season was marred by an ankle injury that cost him six games and appeared to slow him down in others. But Taylor is a workhorse who scored 32 touchdowns in his first 32 NFL games and will continue to be a pivotal performer for the Indianapolis offense. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

Only 5 other QBs finished as QB1 (top-12) at a higher rate than Trevor Lawrence did last season. – Erickson

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

The Tennessee mountain man remains the face of this organization. Their offensive framework has revolved around him, and while I think the Titans pass more this season, I don’t think they go away from Derrick Henry. Henry should threaten for the league lead in rushing attempts in 2023. – DBro

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

AFC West

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

QB Russell Wilson is coming off a nightmarish season, and Javonte Williams is coming off surgery to repair multiple torn ligaments in his knee. That makes Jeudy the default choice for Denver. We’re still waiting for a breakout season, but Jeudy has been solid when healthy over his first three NFL seasons. He averaged 4.5 catches and 64.8 receiving yards a game last year, and Jeudy will be a good bet for a 1,000-yard season in 2023 if he stays healthy. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

I can make a case for Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce here, and neither is a wrong answer. I choose to go the Mahomes route. He’s never finished lower than the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Yeah, that’s an exceptionally high floor. – DBro

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

Davante Adams‘ floor might not be as safe as we’re used to now that he won’t have either Aaron Rodgers or old college teammate Derek Carr as his quarterback. That makes Josh Jacobs the default choice. Jacobs led the league with 1,653 rushing yards last season and also chipped in 53 catches for 400 yards. The Raiders gave Jacobs the franchise tag in the offseason, and they’re expected to once again give him a massive workload. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

Austin Ekeler has finished as at least a top-36 running back in every single game he has played over the last two seasons. – Erickson

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West