Welcome to Week 4. We have another 12-game slate to sift through. This article series identified the QB4 (Kirk Cousins), the QB10 (Deshaun Watson), and the RB2 (Raheem Mostert) last week. We continue to find high-level values, so let’s keep it going this week.
This series aims to decipher players who can outperform their salaries and help push rosters. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 4 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (DEN) vs. CHI: $5,800 (DraftKings)
Let’s begin with some honesty. This game is most likely not one to watch expecting highlight reels. Nor does it possess a high over/under. This game is not a cultivated brawl in a pub basement like Fight Club. This is more like two raccoons squabbling over a half-eaten tin of pot pie. To the victor, go the spoils. In this case, the spoils are one of them potentially climbing out of the winless dumpster and squinting against the piercing sunlight.
In DFS we typically chase pieces in games with higher expected point totals. Then a game like this comes along. Two 0-3 teams battling it out to not be the one that slips to 0-4. There will be points scored and Russell Wilson looks like the better value option. Justin Fields‘s $6,600 salary is the eighth-most on this slate, despite averaging 6.4 fewer fantasy points per game than Wilson.
Over the last three games, Wilson has thrown for over 300 yards twice. He’s had at least two passing touchdowns in two of the three. The Bears are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, including the fourth-most passing yards (288.3) and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (2.3) on a per-contest basis.
The salary allows for improved roster construction at other positions and leaves room for a ceiling above salary. Stacking options are available with Jerry Jeudy ($6.6K), Courtland Sutton ($5.3K) and the exciting rookie, Marvin Mims ($3.9K).
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. TEN: $7,200 (FanDuel)
Joe Burrow has struggled to get going early this season. Plagued by a lingering calf injury sustained during week one of the preseason, he has played dissimilar to what we have become accustomed. Through three games, he is averaging a lowly 9.57 fantasy points per contest. However, what people are not talking about is the fact that he faced three top-twelve defenses over those weeks while struggling with the injury and the mobility complications it represents.
Burrow was listed as a full participant in practice from Wednesday on and carries no injury designation heading into this week’s matchup. Let’s talk about that for a moment. After facing the top-rated defense against quarterbacks (CLE) in week one, the 11th-ranked defense (BAL) in week two, and the 8th-ranked defense (LAR), Burrow gets a break. The Titans, while still harder than average to run against have become an absolute pass funnel defense. They’re allowing the third-most passing yards (299.7) and the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Burrow received a much-needed confidence boost last week and has a chance to build on that this week in a favorable matchup. He is less likely to be heavily rostered due to his recent struggles and represents an excellent high-ceiling option in GPP’s and tournaments.
Running Backs
James Cook (BUF) vs. MIA: $6,300 (DraftKings)
Second-year pro James Cook has come out of the gate swinging this season. He has had double-digit carries in each game, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and 111.3 scrimmage yards per game. The most obvious downside is the lack of scoring. Cook has yet to break the plane this season, which has suppressed his fantasy ceiling.
The Dolphins are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. They surrender an average of 112 rushing yards and 31.7 receiving yards to the position. They’ve allowed at least one rushing touchdown in two of the last three contests. Cook brings a skill set that favors both game scripts. If the Bills are leading, he can take more carries. If they are trailing, he can be involved in the passing aspect. His skill set seems to favor him being involved regardless of the score.
In a game that should feature plenty of scoring, pieces of this game should be scattered throughout DFS lineups. Cook is set up to be an integral part of a potent Bills offense in a game that should be nothing short of exciting.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) vs. HOU: $6,100 (FanDuel)
Umm, someone tell the author he picked a backup running back as a recommended value play in DFS. Psssttt… he knows.
Let’s check some numbers. Through the first three weeks, Najee Harris has seen a combined 38 opportunities, which he has converted into 141 scrimmage yards, and is averaging 5.2 fantasy points per game. Jaylen Warren has had a combined 29 opportunities, which he has converted into 156 scrimmage yards, and is averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game. Less work, bad. More points, good. Cheaper for more points, very good.
The Texans are allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (1.7) and fantasy points to the position. Through the first three weeks, Warren is tied for the second-most receptions among the position.
This is not a bonafide stud play and should be primarily utilized in tournaments with stronger players around him. He is ancillary upside at cost in a plus matchup.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave (NO) vs. TB: $7,100 (DraftKings)
Through the first three weeks of the season, Olave has scored 20+ fantasy points in two of them. He has seen double digit targets in all three and eclipsed the century mark in two of the three. All with a healthy (for the moment) Michael Thomas on the field.
The immediate concern is whether or not Derek Carr will be available, which is a fair question. With that question in mind, it is worth bringing up Olave’s splits with Jameis Winston.
NFL Week 4 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023) | FantasyPros
| Variables |
With Jameis Winston |
Without Jameis Winston |
| Games |
3.0 |
12.0 |
| Targets |
9.7 |
7.5 |
| Receptions |
5.7 |
4.6 |
| Receiving Yards |
89.3 |
64.5 |
| PPR Points |
15.3 |
13.0 |
The sample size is admittedly small, but fairly consistent. Not to mention that a fair amount of people will be shying away from Olave because of the change at quarterback. This could have a positive impact on his rostered percentage.
The Buccaneers are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points and an average of 199.7 receiving yards to the position. They have also allowed one touchdown per week to receivers, making Olave the most likely candidate to hit paydirt for the first time this season. Olave represents both floor and ceiling and can be utilized in both cash and GPP contests on this slate.
Tank Dell (HOU) vs. PIT: $6,200 (FanDuel)
The diminutive rookie has done nothing short of impress at the NFL level and appears to have a budding chemistry with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud. Through the first three weeks, Dell is averaging five receptions on seven targets for 83.6 receiving yards per game. He has also scored in consecutive weeks. Nico Collins and Tank Dell currently have the 11th and 12th-most receiving yards among all wide receivers, respectively.
The Steelers are allowing the fifth-most receiving yards (211.3), tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns (1.3), and the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts. Collins is $200 more expensive, making the duo interchangeable for max-entry contests. Collins is preferred in cash games, Dell in GPPs. Both have appeal in an excellent matchup.
Tight Ends
George Kittle (SF) vs. ARI: $5,100 (DraftKings)
Honestly, the tight end group for this main slate leaves a bit to be desired. No Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews is in a bad matchup, as are Dallas Goedert and Hunter Henry. It is not pretty, folks. So, this is a week that paying up is recommended. George Kittle comes to mind as potentially an integral piece versus an ancillary weapon for this matchup. Once upon a time, the Cardinals were the most coveted matchup for any tight end that had both pads and hands. They’ve improved on this aspect and are a middle-of-the-road matchup currently, currently allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to the position and the fourth-most yards.
Deebo Samuel showed up on the injury report with ribs and a knee injury, missing a couple of practices during the week. Brandon Aiyuk missed last week’s contest with an AC joint injury but is trending towards being active. Any reduction in premiere targets paves the road for a larger role in the offensive scheme. After seeing nine targets through the first two weeks combined, Kittle saw nine targets last week with Aiyuk sidelined. His 12.9 yards per reception was his highest of the season as was his 90 receiving yards, paving the way to a 16-point outing.
With both Samuel and Aiyuk less than 100 percent, Kittle’s role should be more similar to last week than the previous two. He can rostered in both cash and GPP contests.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) vs. CIN: $4,700 (FanDuel)
Somewhere, someone just rolled their eyes when they saw the name. That’s fair. I get it.
Chig’s seven receptions for 42 yards took two games to accrue after dropping a bagel in week one. Ryan Tannehill has been playing like the coach’s kid in pee wee. You know, the kid that is not very good, everyone can see it, but everyone knows he is not getting benched? Yeah, something like that. There is plenty to not like about this selection.
But, there are some positives. Treylon Burks has been declared out with a knee injury. DeAndre Hopkins spent most of the week being limited in practice with an ankle injury. There is now a pathway to meaningful targets in a game in which the Titans are expected to be playing from behind. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Okonkwo has averaged a 12% target share thus far and that number will certainly go up in this matchup. There is plenty of risk in dropping Okonkwo into lineups for this slate, therefore he should almost strictly be used in GPPs or tournaments. He is due for a good game and this matchup is a good one to target a tight end who will have an expanded role.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
