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The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the Week 9 Primer. My weekly Fantasy Football love letter covering NFL and fantasy analysis to help you set your lineups. Phew…it’s been a wild week in the NFL. The trade deadline came and went with some major defensive pieces moving, like Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The Raiders also decided to trade in their head coach and general manager for new models in 2024.

With personnel changes and now eight weeks of data to sift through, we’ll start to see micro trends in the NFL. Some teams will continue romping along with great defenses, while others could fall off. This is why, with corners and other matchup data, you’ll see me include caveats of “since Week 4,” etc. I try to leave no stone unturned to help you with your weekly lineup decisions. Grab your favorite pumpkin spice-flavored beverage, and let’s get to it. Week 9 is here.

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The passing volume will be exciting in this game, but the pace will lag. Miami leads the way in this contest in neutral pace, ranked a modest 14th, while Kansas City brings up the rear at 22nd. Miami also paves the way at third in neutral passing rate while the Chiefs are fifth.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: My worries about Tagovailoa were apparently overblown last week as he finished as the QB9 in fantasy. Tagovailoa remains the QB6 in fantasy, ranking second in yards per attempt, sixth in fantasy points per dropback, and first in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 5, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, but outside of that statistical hiccup, they remain one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Across their last four games, Kansas City has surrendered the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate to passers. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Patrick Mahomes: Before last week’s flu game snafu, Mahomes was fifth in yards per attempt, first in adjusted completion rate, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback as the QB3 in fantasy. I’m not taking anything away from last week’s tough performance. Everyone is entitled to a bad day at the office when they aren’t feeling 100%. The Dolphins offense has been hammering opponents all season, but unfortunately, their defense has kept up the same pace. Miami has given up the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate. If Miami’s pass rush gets home, Mahomes could fail to live up to expectations this week. The Dolphins are eighth in pressure rate. Against pressure, Mahomes has struggled this season with the 11th-lowest pressured passer rating, the ninth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate, and a 1:5 pressured passing touchdown to interception ratio. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Mostert has had tough matchups each of the last two weeks, but Week 9 should allow him to get back on the good foot. Mostert remained the team’s leadback last week despite injury concerns entering the game, as he played 56% of the snaps. He has averaged 14.5 touches and 83.9 total yards. He keeps trucking along this season as one of the most explosive backs in the game. He ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The Chiefs continue to struggle in the run defense department with the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest stuff rate, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should be a key cog in dismantling Kansas City. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1

Jeff Wilson: Wilson’s workload was ramped up more last week. He played 25% of the snaps with seven touches and 37 total yards. That’s not nearly enough to consider starting him this week, but it’s encouraging for those who have Wilson stashed. Keep him warming the bench in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: Stash

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco continues to operate as the team’s workhorse, with his weekly snap share settling into the 50-60% range. He has averaged 16.5 touches and 72.4 total yards. Pachecho is 15th in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. He is set to do battle with a tough Dolphins’ run defense, but there’s an avenue for him to surprise this week. Miami has held tight with the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed, but they have shown some give in some metrics. They have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL and have given up the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs (4.53). Pachecho has been quite successful on gap runs (49.1% of his rushing attempts) with 5.25 yards per carry this season. Kansas City could look to establish the run early. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline RB1

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill remains the WR1 in fantasy. He has exceeded 100 receiving yards in five of eight games this season. He’s failed to exceed 80 receiving yards only twice. Hill has been unstoppable. There’s no way he’s not going to be hyped for a rematch against his former team. Hill is fourth in target share (30.3%), fourth in air-yard share (45.8%), first in YPRR (4.51), and eighth in first-read share (36.2%). Since Week 5, the Chiefs have utilized man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (33.9%). Against man, Hill’s numbers explode as his air-yard share increases to 51% (fourth-best) and his YPRR jumps to 4.93 (second-best). Hill ranks second in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks among wideouts. Hill will run about 62% of his routes against L’Jarius Sneed (61.1% catch rate and 68.8 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (70% catch rate and 130.8 passer rating) unless they decide to have Sneed shadow. Sneed has followed six wide receivers (Courtland Sutton, Joshua Palmer, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley) on 50-75% of their routes this season. None of these receivers has eclipsed 41 receiving yards in Sneed’s primary coverage. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle enjoyed a banner Week 8 with his first 100-yard receiving outing and another receiving score. He is the WR20 in fantasy, ranking 29th in red zone targets (none since Week 6). Waddle has a 21.3% target share, a 25.5% air-yard share, 2.67 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share. Since Week 5, the Chiefs have utilized man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (33.9%). Against man, Waddle has a 20% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 2.25 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. If Sneed follows Hill, then Waddle should eat against Jaylen Watson (70% catch rate and 130.8 passer rating). If Sneed doesn’t shadow, Waddle will run about 73% of his routes against Sneed (61.1% catch rate and 68.8 passer rating) and Watson. Since moving to more man coverage, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target (since Week 5). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2

Rashee Rice: Since Week 7, Rice has settled in with a 57.3% route run rate, a 13.8% target share, a 10.6% air-yard share (5.5 aDOT), 2.27 YPRR, and an 18.4% first-read share (second on the team). Rice’s short-area role will come in handy this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-most yards after the catch (YAC) and the fifth-most missed tackles. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, Rice ranks first in YAC per reception and 26th in missed tackles forced per reception. Rice will run about 58% of his routes against Kader Kohou (83.3% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating). The Dolphins have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce remains the king of the mountain at TE1. Among 44 qualifying tight ends, he ranks first in target share (24.7%), air-yard share (27.6%), YPRR (2.97), and first-read share (28.7%). He leads all tight ends in red zone targets and ranks third in deep targets. Miami has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: The Weekly TE1 overall

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Green Bay has been a boring run-balanced offense, ranking 21st in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.
  • Los Angeles has been a slow-and-throw offense, but they could lean run-heavy this week, considering their quarterback situation and the matchup. The Rams have the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Stafford’s availability is up in the air for Week 9. I think the Rams are milking this, and Stafford isn’t playing this week. He has not practiced this week. Even if he suits up, I expect his effectiveness to be limited. I would find another quarterback option for Week 9.

Jordan Love: Love is the QB12 in fantasy with three QB1 weeks on his resume. His fantasy production has been fine this season, but it hasn’t matched up with his real-life efficiency at all. His rushing production has helped to mask his passing woes for fantasy. He is 11th in rushing yards, 12th in rushing yards per game, and ninth in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 24th in passing grade, 26th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate. The Rams rock with zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL (76.9%). Against zone, Love has the most interceptions in the NFL (eight), the lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 13th-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Not good, Bob. Not good. The silver lining for Love is that recently, the Rams have been more giving as a pass defense. Since Week 5, they have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and ninth-most fantasy points via passing. They have also been 11th in pressure rate, which spells trouble for Love. Against pressure, Love has the ninth-lowest passing grade, the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, and the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Love could walk away from Week 9 with a decent stat line, but it’s risky. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Week 8

Player Snap % Rushing attempts Routes Targets Red zone opportunities
Darrell Henderson 47% 12 12 3 1
Royce Freeman 53% 9 15 0 2

Darrell Henderson: After leading the way in Week 7, Henderson took a backseat to Freeman last week. He played 47% of the snaps with 15 touches and 85 total yards. Freeman ran more routes than him and out-touched him in the red zone. Among 65 qualifying backs, Henderson ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt. We’ll see if his snap share bounces back to Week 7 levels against the Packers, but it could be Freeman who leads the way this week. The matchup is good enough this week to still plant Henderson firmly in the flex conversation. Green Bay has allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Royce Freeman: Freeman was the lead back in Week 8 with 53% of the snaps and nine rushes for 44 yards. He ran more routes than Henderson, although he didn’t draw a target. If the Rams can get out to a lead this week, the work could tilt more in Freeman’s favor. Freeman has been incredibly impressive with the work he has received this season. Among 75 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Freeman could run wild this week against a Packers run defense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game, the 14th-highest touchdown rate, and the fifth-most missed tackles to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4 with RB2 upside

Aaron Jones: Last week, Jones saw his highest snap share of the season with 51% of the snaps while logging 11 touches and 46 total yards. Jones still is lacking his usual burst. Last week, he didn’t rip any explosive runs or forced any missed tackles while he posted only 2.57 yards after contact per attempt. Overall, this season, Jones has zero explosive runs. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 62nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Rams began the season as a matchup to target on the ground, but they have toughened up. Since Week 4, they have been 14th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt allowed while bolstering the 12th-best stuff rate. Week 9 Positional Value: RB2/3

A.J. Dillon: With Jones back, Dillon has averaged 53% of the snaps with 14 touches and 73.5 total yards. Dillon has lacked juice all season. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 53rd in explosive run rate, 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 4, they have been 14th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt allowed while bolstering the 12th-best stuff rate. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Since Kupp’s return, he has led the team with a 30.3% target share, a 38.3% air-yard share, 2.66 YPRR, and a 37.9% first-read share. The downgrade at quarterback this week will be noticeable, assuming Stafford isn’t playing, but Kupp will still get his volume. The Packers have the eighth-highest zone coverage rate (77%) this season. Against zone, Kupp’s air-yard share climbs to 43.3%, and his YPRR zooms to 3.46. The Packers have been vulnerable to slot receivers, allowing the second-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving touchdowns. Kupp will run about 53% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (79.4% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating). Among 30 qualifying slot corners, Nixon has given up the 11th-highest passer rating and eighth-most receiving yards. After two duds, Kupp could get back on the good foot this week, even with quarterback worries. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: With Kupp back in the lineup, Nacua has had a 29.5% target share, a 35.4% air-yard share, 2.45 YPRR, and a 32.2% first-read share. He has finished as a WR1 in two of those four games (WR11, WR5). Green Bay is a zone-heavy team. Against zone with Kupp in the lineup, Nacua’s target share has been 26.4% with a 24.1% air-yard share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 26.4% first-read share. Nacua has been the clear second option against zone. Nacua has only four red zone targets this season, with only two across his last four games. He will run about 58% of his routes on the perimeter against Jaire Alexander (81.3% catch rate) and Carrington Valentine (61.5% catch rate and 98.9 passer rating). Nacua has been limited all week with a knee issue. He has been listed as questionable. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2

Tutu Atwell: With Kupp back, Atwell has had an 11.1% target share and 19.2% air-yards share against zone. He has churned out 1.00 YPRR with a 15.1% first-read share. With the offense’s efficiency and ceiling taking a hit with the quarterback worries, sit Atwell. This passing offense will flow through Kupp and Nacua again in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: Sit

Christian WatsonSince Week 5, Watson has played 82-88% of the snaps weekly with a 19.4% target share, a 41.3% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 22.5% first read share. Love has been dragging him down. If you turn on the film, Watson has been running wide open numerous times, with Love only able to deliver inaccurate targets. Since Week 5 among 72 qualifying wide receivers, Watson is 47th in fantasy points per route run but also 20th in expected fantasy points per route run. The problem in this passing offense is not Watson. Among 83 qualifying wide receivers, Watson is 11th in open score behind DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett. If Love can get his act together, Watson could melt the Ram’s secondary in Week 9. Since Week 4, the Rams have allowed the seventh-highest passer rating, the third-most passing yards, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Los Angeles has the 11th-highest rate of two-high (51.4%) this season. Against two-high, Watson is tied for the team lead in target share (18.2%), first-read share (21.9%), and air-yard share (33.7%). Since Week 5, Watson has led the team with seven deep targets (35% of his target volume). Watson will run about 69% of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon (since Week 4: 55.2% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (since Week 4: 73.7% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Romeo Doubs: Since Week 5, Doubs has had a 17.5% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 0.60 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Across this limited three-game sample, he is third in deep targets on the team. Doubs is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers, with seven in his last five games played. Doubs will run about 90% of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon (since Week 4: 55.2% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (since Week 4: 73.7% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR4

Jayden Reed: If you’re looking for a secondary target in the Packers offense to flex this week behind Watson, my vote goes to Reed or Luke Musgrave. Since Week 5, Reed has only an 11.7% target share, an 18.2% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 13.8% first-read share, but he has gobbled up high cholesterol usage all season, including during this run of games. Since Week 5, he is second to only Watson in deep targets (five). Overall this season, Reed is 19th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among wideouts. Since Week 4, the Rams have allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Reed led the team with a 79% route run rate last week. Los Angeles has the 11th-highest rate of two-high (51.4%) this season. Against two-high, Reed is tied with Watson for the team lead in target share (18.2%) and first-read share (21.9%) while also logging a 27.9% air-yard share. Reed leads the team with a 37.5% designed target rate against two-high. Reed will run about 89% of his routes against Cobie Durant (66.7% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Since Kupp’s return, Higbee has had a 13.1% target share, an 11.6% air-yard share, 0.87 YPRR, and a pitiful 10.3% first-read share. He has eclipsed 40 receiving yards only once with only one red zone target. Green Bay is 17th in receiving yards, and fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: low-end TE2

Luke Musgrave: Last week, Musgrave handled a 65.3% route run rate with a 7.3% target share, 0.28 YPRR, and a 9.4% first-read share. Musgrave is obviously not fully healthy, as he’s dealing with an ankle issue. In the six games in which he has played at least 67% of the snaps, he has had a 15.2% target share, a 69% route run rate, 1.27 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. The matchup this week is amazing, but I worry if Musgrave is healthy enough to take advantage of it. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-highest fantasy points per game and the highest yards per reception to tight ends. Musgrave has also not drawn a red zone target since Week 3, so I question his touchdown equity in this offense. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans

Pace and playcalling notes

  • This game will compete for the best play volume site of the week. Tampa Bay is eighth in neutral pace while Tampa Bay is close behind at 11th.
  • They have used their volume in different ways, as the Bucs are ninth in neutral passing rate. The Texans have the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB17 in fantasy with three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB7, QB11, QB10). His fantasy production has been much better than his real-life numbers. Mayfield is 15th in passing grade, 32nd in big-time throw rate, and 21st in adjusted completion rate. There has been a little bit of a divide between fantasy and reality. He could post another QB1 stat line this week against Houston’s pass defense that has held quarterbacks back with smoke and mirrors. They have given up the fewest passing touchdowns this season, which has held back the fantasy production, but every other category screams that the wall will come tumbling down. Houston is also allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest adjusted completion rate, and the third-highest CPOE. Houston is 13th in pressure rate, so they will get after Mayfield this week, but if the Bucs can buy him time, he can torch this defense deep. Houston has given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt on deep balls and the fourth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

C.J. Stroud: Stroud flopped last week in what looked like a beautiful spot. It looks like it was just a down week from Stroud. He was not under duress as he was 27th in pressured rate, but he finished 17th in adjusted completion rate and 22nd in highly accurate throw rate in Week 8 as the QB25 in fantasy. Stroud is a better quarterback than he showed last week, but maybe I got ahead of his actual standing right now. Stroud is 16th in passing grade and fourth in yards per attempt, but he’s also 26th in adjusted completion rate and big-time throw rate. Tampa Bay should allow a bounce-back opportunity for Stroud. They are 25th in pressure rate, so Stroud should have all day in the pocket. This defense has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most YAC, and the ninth-highest YAC per reception. If Stroud can get the ball in his playmakers’ hands, he’ll post a nice stat line in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White continues to be an ugly volume play as the RB24 in fantasy. He has played at least 70% of the snaps weekly while averaging 17.2 touches and 76.9 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, White is 54th in explosive run rate and 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt. His pass game usage has been a saving grace as he’s tenth in targets and 14th in target share among backs. He has 135 receiving yards across his last two games. Houston has been an up-and-down run defense. While they have smothered backs to the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the second-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (White 56.5% zone), they have also given up the fourth-highest missed tackle per attempt rate and sit at 16th in yards after contact per attempt. They have been generous to receiving backs with the seventh-highest yards per reception and tenth-most receiving yards given up. Week 9 Positional Value: RB2

Week 8

Player Snap % Rushing attempts Routes Targets Red zone opportunities
Dameon Pierce 43% 12 6 0 2
Devin Singletary 40% 10 6 2 2
Mike Boone 17% 1 7 1 0

Dameon Pierce:Pierce has been ruled out (ankle).

Devin SingletaryWith Pierce ruled out, Singletary should lead the backfield in touches, but anyone playing Singletary could see more Mike Boone this week than they care to. Last week, Singletary played his usual role in Week 8 as the 1B in this backfield. He played 40% of the snaps with 12 touches and 43 total yards. Singletary has quietly been the most effective tackle-breaking back in this backfield. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay isn’t a great matchup. They have limited backs to the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest rushing touchdown rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans is the WR14 in fantasy drawing a 21.5% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, and a 27.4% first-read share (second on the team). He has produced 2.47 YPRR while ranking tenth in deep targets among wide receivers. Evans has been the primary deep threat for Mayfield, so if he is looking to chuck it deep it should be Evans coming down with it. The Texans utilize zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league (79.6%). Against zone, Evans leads the team with a 21.8% target share, a whopping 40.8% air-yard share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 28.7% first-read share. Evans will run about 71% of his routes against Steven Nelson (67.9% catch rate) and Shaquill Griffin (69.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). This sets up as a huge Evans week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR1/2

Chris Godwin man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Coverage Tgt % AY % YPRR First Read %
zone 20.3% 24.9% 1.92 25.4%
man 27.5% 25.7% 2.57 36.7%

Chris Godwin: Godwin has been the go-to against-man coverage this season for the Bucs. That’s not to say that he disappears against zone, but his numbers decline across the board, with his target share dropping to 20.3%, his YPRR falling to 1.92, and his first-read share sitting at 25.4%. Godwin is eighth in red zone targets among wide receivers, but he hasn’t been used downfield much, with only five deep targets (Evans 13). Godwin will run about 66% of his routes against Steven Nelson (67.9% catch rate) and Shaquill Griffin (69.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Nico Collins: Collins is the WR17 commanding an 18.2% target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, and a 25.8% first-read share. He has produced a monster 4.08 YPRR while ranking seventh in YAC and fourth in YAC per reception among receivers. With Tampa Bay’s struggles with YAC, Collins should be the leading receiver for Houston this week. Collins will have to produce big plays for touchdowns this week because he only has two red zone targets all season (none since Week 4). Collins will run about 79% of his routes against Jamel Dean (71.4% catch rate and 116.8 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tank Dell: In Dell’s four full games this season, he has garnered an 18.2% target share, a 25.0% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share (fourth on the team). Among 107 qualifying wide receivers, he is 27th in YAC per reception. Dell has only one red zone target this season, which came in Week 3. Dell will run about 61% of his routes against Jamel Dean (71.4% catch rate and 116.8 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3/4

Robert Woods: Woods has been ruled out (foot). 

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Otton isn’t a sexy name to plug into your lineups as the TE22 this season, but he is on the streaming radar this week. Otton is 24th in target share, 25th in air-yard share, and 32nd in red zone targets (only two) among tight ends. The sexiest thing about Otton in fantasy is his matchup this week. Houston is 24th in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game. Week 9 Positional Value: Matchup-based streamer

Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the TE11 ranking fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. Among 44 qualifying tight ends, he is 14th in target share (15.1%), 21st in YPRR (1.33), and 17th in first-read share. Schultz has a tough matchup this week. Tampa Bay is fourth in DVOA against tight ends, allowing the ninth-lowest yards per reception and the third-fewest receiving touchdowns per game. Week 9 Positional Value: TE2

TEN vs. PIT | MIA vs. KC | LAR vs. GB | TB vs. HOU | CHI vs. NO | SEA vs. BAL | MIN vs. ATL | ARI vs. CLE | WAS vs. NE | IND vs. CAR | DAL vs. PHI | NYG vs. LV | BUF vs. CIN | LAC vs. NYJ

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