Super Wild Card weekend will begin with two games on Saturday. The first has numerous DFS options from both teams. The second has an uneven distribution of DFS choices.
Super Wild Card Saturday Matchups
Game: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Spread: CLE -2.5
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Browns Analysis: Joe Flacco has unlocked Cleveland's offense, leading a pass-happy attack. According to RotoViz's pace app, they had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 14 through Week 17. They ticked it up to 64% against the Texans in Week 16.
Flacco lit up Houston for 368 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, albeit with two interceptions. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in all five of his starts, eclipsing 300 passing yards in his past four. The 38-year-old quarterback hasn't been perfect, tossing eight interceptions and losing one fumble. The turnovers aren't enough to take him out of the useful player mix on this two-game slate against an opponent he recently torched.
Flacco's excellence against the Texans paled in comparison to Amari Cooper's. Cleveland's No. 1 wide receiver smashed the Texans for 11 receptions, 265 receiving yards and two touchdowns. That was Cooper's last game played, and his health warrants monitoring this week.
Still, he's been in lockstep with Flacco. In Cooper's last three games, he had a 28.5% target share and averaged 193 air yards per game. Cooper parlayed his elite underlying data into 22 receptions, 451 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.
Elijah Moore is Cleveland's No. 2 wide receiver. However, he's a distant No. 2 behind Cooper and not even the second option in the passing attack. Nevertheless, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Moore ran the second-most routes for the Browns (114) in Cooper's last three healthy contests (Week 14 through Week 16). Moore had an underwhelming seven receptions and 78 receiving yards in those games.
Moore's route participation and his deployment are reasons to consider him on this small slate, though. According to The 33rd Team, Moore has aligned in the slot 60.5% of the time this season. Meanwhile, since Week 15, the Texans have allowed 14.1 DraftKings and 11.6 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers versus 18.4 and 14.0 to slots.
David Njoku is the second fiddle in Cleveland's passing attack. From Week 14 through Week 16, he ran the third-most routes (108) for the Browns, had the second-highest target share (23.8%), tied for the team lead in receptions (22), was second in receiving yards (239) and topped the team in receiving touchdowns (four). Njoku is an excellent choice on this slate, and his value would skyrocket if Cooper's injuries surprisingly sidelined him this week.
Texans Analysis: C.J. Stroud was recovering from a concussion when the Texans previously played against the Browns. Thankfully, Stroud has been sharp in two games since returning from a concussion, completing a blistering 75.9% of his 58 pass attempts for 477 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. They were encouraging showings in a brilliant rookie campaign.
Stroud's matchup is lousy, but he's unflappable and talented enough to get the better of the matchup. Moreover, he was lights out at home. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he averaged 310.8 passing yards per game and 9.52 adjusted yards per pass attempt with a 65.47% completion rate, 17 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions in eight games at home.
Nico Collins is Stroud's top healthy pass-catcher. Sadly, dynamic rookie Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury early in Week 13. Starting with that game, Collins has dominated Houston's passing-game opportunities in Stroud's four healthy starts (Week 13, Week 14, Week 17 and Week 18), earning 30 targets (36.1% target per route run rate) and parlaying his opportunities into 26 receptions, 479 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Collins's target-hog role is dreamy in DFS.
Robert Woods is a viable punt if Noah Brown is out. The veteran wideout hasn't been a significant contributor for the Texans, but he's a mainstay on the field as a starting wide receiver. Woods is an unexciting punt.
Dalton Schultz is Houston's second-best pass-catching weapon if Brown is inactive. He had eight receptions for 61 scoreless yards against the Browns in Week 16. In his first year on the Texans, he's cleared 55 receiving yards, scored a touchdown or done both in eight of 15 games.
The matchup isn't bad, either. From Week 14 through Week 17, the Browns allowed 19.7 DK points per game and 15.6 FD points per game to tight ends.
Devin Singletary is an intriguing selection on this slate. He's not a flashy runner. Yet, Singletary has a bell-cow gig. He's had at least 16 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) in four of his previous five games. In those games, he had 449 scrimmage yards (89.8 per game), 11 receptions (2.2 per game) and two touchdowns.
The Browns held running backs to only 57 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry to running backs from Week 14 through Week 17. However, running backs averaged 22.8 DK points per game and 18.9 FD points per game in those games because they averaged 7.8 receptions per game, 48 receiving yards per game and had three touchdowns (one rushing and two receiving). So, while Singletary isn't known as an electrifying pass-catching running back, he's a nifty matchup-driven stacking option with Stroud.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -4.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Raheem Mostert has missed Miami's previous two games, and De'Von Achane has made the most of an increased role. Since Week 17, he's had 24 rush attempts, 163 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, six targets, five receptions, 35 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
Achane has been a home-run hitter, averaging a jaw-dropping 7.8 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per reception in his rookie campaign. Even if Mostert can return from his two-game absence, Achane should share backfield opportunities in a good matchup.
From Week 14 through Week 17, the Chiefs allowed running backs 24.9 DK points per game, 20.9 FD points per game, 91 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, 5.0 receptions per game, 43 receiving yards per game, 8.7 yards per reception and two receiving touchdowns. The Dolphins would be foolish not to lean on Achane and their running game against Kansas City's leaky run defense, saying nothing of the frigid weather conditions.
Chiefs Analysis: The cold weather might prompt the Chiefs to throw less frequently than their 67% situation-neutral pass rate from Week 14 through Week 17. Even if the cold weather doesn't deter the Chiefs from passing at their customary high rate, the Chiefs had only a 54% situation-neutral pass rate against the Dolphins in Week 9.
Thus, Isiah Pacheco is Kansas City's most alluring DFS option. The second-year running back has emerged as a workhorse in his sophomore season, reaching at least 11 touches in all 14 games he played in the regular season and reaching at least 17 touches nine times. Pacheco has a four-game touchdown streak entering the postseason and had at least 89 scrimmage yards in four of his past five games. He's also had at least three receptions in four straight games. Pacheco is a game-script-proof player projected to be the RB1 at both DFS providers on Saturday's slate.
Rashee Rice is arguably Kansas City's best pass-catching weapon. From Week 14 through Week 17, the rookie wide receiver was first on the Chiefs in targets (36), receptions (27), receiving yards (346) and receiving touchdowns (two). Rice has a mouthwatering matchup as long as Jalen Ramsey doesn't shadow him, which is admittedly possible. Still, since Week 15, Miami's been torched by slots for 28.2 DK and 22.3 FD points per game. Rice has had a 62.2% slot rate this season.
Justin Watson will also have chances from the slot. The speedy veteran has had a 47.8% slot rate this year and was used there 59.0% of the time against the Dolphins in Week 9. Watson ran the fourth-most routes (104) for the Chiefs from Week 14 through Week 17 and had 12 targets, seven receptions, 128 receiving yards and one touchdown.
The Chiefs have rotated wideouts all season, looking for a spark behind Rice. In a meaningless Week 18 game against the Chargers, when the Chiefs rested many critical players, Mecole Hardman ran the club's most routes (35) and had 10 targets, six receptions and 77 receiving yards. Could his stellar play in the meaningless contest earn him a more significant role this week? Maybe. Hardman's most likely outcome is a dud, but taking calculated risks is crucial to differentiate from others in GPPs on a two-game slate. Thus, Hardman is a defensible contrarian choice.
Travis Kelce only had flashes of brilliance this season instead of consistently torching opponents. Furthermore, he was lousy to close the regular season, posting 28, 44 and 16 scoreless yards on five, five and three receptions in his final three games. The veteran tight end isn't a must-use player on this slate.
However, the week of rest in Week 18 could serve Kelce well this week, and the matchup is superb. The Dolphins have allowed tight ends 18.0 DK points per game, 15.1 FD points per game, 5.8 receptions per game, 62 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns in their previous four games.
The matchup is also sweet for Noah Gray. Kansas City's backup tight end ran the fifth-most routes (57) on the team from Week 14 through Week 17 and had nine targets, six receptions and 59 receiving yards. Gray's ceiling is low. Still, he's a matchup-driven punt.
The Chiefs are favored at home. Kansas City's defense can shine against a slumping Tua Tagovailoa. The lefty has thrown precisely two interceptions in back-to-back games and has had five turnovers and has only thrown four touchdown passes in his last five games. Finally, the Chiefs bottled up Miami's offense earlier this season, holding them to 14 points while forcing one turnover and recording three sacks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
