Underdog and other best ball sites have my eternal gratitude because it’s immensely satisfying to draft fantasy football teams months before most fantasy leagues conduct their drafts.
With the season so far off, there is a lot of projection in these early drafts, and a greater divergence of opinion this time of year means there are some terrific values to be had.
Here are 14 players I’m targeting in Underdog best ball drafts based on their current cost.
(*ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy)
Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Targets
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) | ADP: QB6, 58 Overall
Yes, I think this price is a bargain even for a second-year quarterback who started four games as a rookie and finished only two of them. When Richardson played, he put up fantasy points at a dazzling rate. In the two games he started and finished, Richardson scored 21.9 and 29.6 fantasy points, good for weekly fantasy finishes of QB4 and QB2. Granted, it was a small sample size, but Richardson averaged an astounding 0.43 fantasy points per snap last season. Josh Allen, who led all QBs in fantasy scoring, averaged 0.36 fantasy points per snap. The 6-foot-4, 244-pound Richardson will rack up impressive rushing numbers and he’s a more advanced passer than he was billed as coming out of the University of Florida. This young fella is going to be fantasy gold.
Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU) | ADP: QB17, 122 Overall
The value of running quarterbacks is no secret and Daniels is the best running QB in this rookie class. He ran for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in his final two college seasons at LSU — and remember, sacks count against a quarterback’s rushing yardage in college football. Daniels is no slouch as a passer either. After the Commanders spent the second overall pick of the NFL Draft on him, he’s going to start right away. Barring injury, Daniels is a near-lock to return a profit on a QB17 cost.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) | ADP: QB30, 195 Overall
The much-maligned Jones is something of a punchline in the fantasy community, but he’s a value in best-ball drafts. He played only six games last season due to neck and knee injuries, and those six games did not go well: two touchdown passes, six interceptions, 5.7 yards per attempt. But Jones had a wretched supporting cast, with a bad group of pass catchers and an offensive line that was a sieve. The Giants are patching up the O-line, and they added arguably the most electric playmaker in this year’s NFL Draft, WR Malik Nabers. In 2022, Jones finished QB9 in fantasy scoring and QB11 in fantasy points per game. He has that sort of upside for 2024 if he still runs semi-aggressively after tearing his ACL last November.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU) | ADP: RB15, 57 Overall
Houston is a terrific landing spot for the veteran running back. Mixon should be the undisputed lead back in an exciting offense. His yearly finishes in fantasy points per game (half-point PPR) since 2021: RB4, RB9, RB12.
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) |ADP: RB16, 64 Overall
Some NFL Draft analysts liked Kenneth Walker more than Breece Hall when both running backs were preparing to enter the NFL in 2022. Hall is better, but the talent gap between the two isn’t that big. The presence of Zach Charbonnet seems to be making drafters nervous about rostering Walker. I’ll happily take what I consider to be a discount on one of the more talented RBs in the league.
Chase Brown (RB – CIN) | ADP: RB36, 119 Overall
With Joe Mixon out of the picture in Cincinnati, Brown has an exciting opportunity. He looked terrific last season in limited opportunities, particularly in the passing game, where he caught 14-of-15 targets for 156 yards and a touchdown. Brown is fast, shifty and he’s proven capable of handling a big load, having averaged 27.3 carries a game (!) in his final college season at Illinois. Newcomer Zack Moss figures to handle some of the Bengals’ early-down rushing duties, but Brown will have significantly more touches in 2024 than he got in 2023 and will probably play on passing downs. He’s a nice value at this price.
Kimani Vidal (RB – Troy) | ADP: RB60, 193 Overall
Rookie running backs have traditionally been good bets in fantasy football. Vidal won the landing-spot lottery, going to the Chargers, who figure to be ultra-run-heavy under head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Ahead of Vidal on the depth chart: the one-dimensional Gus Edwards and the oft-injured J.K. Dobbins. Vidal isn’t as well-known as some of the other RB prospects because he played at Troy, but he was wildly productive in college, where he ran for 1,661 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. The 5-foot-8, 213-pound Vidal is compactly built and hard to bring down. He clocked a 4.46 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a Relative Athletic Score of 8.81, which is in the top 13% of all running backs to have tested at the combine since 1987.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens (WR – PIT) | ADP: WR30, 51 Overall
The Steelers’ offseason maneuvering bodes well for George Pickens’ fantasy value. Pittsburgh shipped off WR Diontae Johnson in a trade with Carolina and solved a QB problem by acquiring not one but two starting-caliber quarterbacks: Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. After Johnson injured his hamstring in the Steelers’ 2023 season opener, Pickens had 17 catches for 357 yards and two touchdowns in the four games Johnson spent on IR. The only slight concern here is that new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will now be calling plays for Pittsburgh.
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) | ADP: WR32, 54 Overall
This is a disrespectful ADP for a reliable veteran who had 1,250 receiving yards last season and has topped 1,10o yards in four of the last five seasons. It’s true that the Cleveland passing game was more prolific with Joe Flacco at quarterback last season than with Deshaun Watson, raising concerns for Cooper’s 2024 outlook. But Cooper had 90 or more receiving yards in four of the five games Watson started and finished last year.
Christian Watson (WR – GB) | ADP: WR45, 88 Overall
Watson is perfect for best-ball formats: a cheap, toolsy receiver with mammoth weekly upside. There’s risk, sure — Watson has endured multiple hamstring injuries since entering the league, and the Packers have a lot of other capable pass catchers — but that arched weekly ceiling of his is undeniable. This is, after all, a player who had eight touchdowns over a four-game stretch as a rookie and four touchdowns over a three-game stretch last year. Watson is 6-4, has sub-4.4 speed and plays with one of the better young quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love. Verdict: strong buy.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) | ADP: WR56, 119 Overall
The Bills traded away mercurial WR Stefon Diggs, who drew 160 targets last season. Second-round draft pick Keon Coleman, a 6-3 contested-catch specialist from Florida State, will get some of those vacated targets, but certainly not all of them. The 24-year-old Shakir saw an uptick in usage over the second half of the 2023 season, and he had 20 catches for 219 yards and two touchdowns over Buffalo’s last four contests, including a TD catch in each of their two playoff games. Shakir will be a fixture in three-receiver sets (and maybe two-receiver sets as well), and there’s a chance he leads the Bills’ receivers in targets. And, oh, by the way, those targets will be coming from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Josh Allen.
Joshua Palmer (WR – LAC) | ADP: WR60, 130 Overall
Yes, the Chargers’ offense will probably be run-centric in 2024. But WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams no longer have lightning bolts on their helmets, so Palmer figures to play an enhanced role in the Chargers’ offense. WR Quentin Johnston was a train wreck in his rookie season, and while the Chargers spent an early-second-round pick on WR Ladd McConkey, Palmer should still draw plenty of targets. Palmer was efficient in the 10 games he played in 2023, averaging 9.5 yards per target and 1.71 yards per route run. He’s a value at this rummage sale price.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) | ADP: TE2, 39 Overall
Sure, Kelce had his streak of seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons snapped last season and he’ll turn 35 in early October. A wave of young TE talent has made the position deeper than it’s been in years, so Kelce no longer provides investors with a massive competitive edge at the position. Still, Kelce had 93 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns last season. He plays with the best pure passer in the game in Patrick Mahomes and will be featured in the Kansas City passing game. Kelce is a value at this price.
Evan Engram (TE – JAX) | ADP: TE8, 74 Overall
Engram had 114 catches last year, and the Jaguars let WR Calvin Ridley walk in free agency. Granted, Engram averaged a career-low 8.4 yards per catch last season, but he still had 963 yards. Engram will be featured prominently in the Jacksonville offense yet again, and this is a very attractive price.
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