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Best Ball ADP vs. Expert Draft Rankings (2024 Fantasy Football)

Best Ball ADP vs. Expert Draft Rankings (2024 Fantasy Football)

While everyone enjoys dynasty rookie draft season, May also kicks off best ball season. Yes, best ball drafts have been going on for months now, but this is the time of the year when things pick up.

Free agency is over and the NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. Furthermore, the NFL schedule was recently released, so fantasy players can plan for bye weeks during their best ball drafts.

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Best ball drafts are fun because of their uniqueness. Not only do you not set a weekly lineup like in season-long leagues, but the strategy behind your draft is different. Since you don’t set a weekly lineup, targeting upside in best ball during the draft is more critical than in season-long leagues.

Meanwhile, there are two tools to help fantasy players make draft day decisions: Underdog Fantasy average draft position (ADP) and FantasyPros’ Best Ball expert consensus rankings (ECR). However, the ADP and ECR don’t always agree. So, let’s look at some of those disagreements and see which side is correct.

Best Ball ADP vs. ECR Comparison

Players the ADP likes more than the ECR

Geno Smith (QB – SEA): ADP: QB23 | ECR: QB25

Who is right? – The ADP

Smith was the QB5 in 2022, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. The veteran had 30 passing touchdowns that year, the fourth-most in the NFL. Unfortunately, he severely regressed last season, ending the year as the QB19, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game. However, Smith dealt with injuries and played behind a struggling offensive line. Smith has the receiving core needed to finish in the top 10 in 2024. The veteran has too much upside to be ranked behind J.J. McCarthy, especially since the rookie might not start immediately.

Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR): ADP: RB24 | ECR: RB32

Who is right? – The ADP

Reportedly, Brooks will be ready for training camp. The former Longhorn star averaged 113.9 rushing yards and a touchdown per game in 2023 before tearing his ACL against Oklahoma State. More importantly, Brooks ranked seventh in the draft class in missed forced tackles (63) despite missing the final 3.5 games because of the injury. Head coach Dave Canales made Rachaad White an RB1 despite having a 14% forced missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Expect a big rookie year from Brooks if he’s ready for Week 1.

Rome Odunze (WR – CHI): ADP: WR37 | ECR: WR42

Who is right? – The ECR

There is a ton to love about Odunze, especially in dynasty leagues after he got drafted by the Bears. However, the team has two proven elite wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart — DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Chicago also has multiple talented pass-catching tight ends and running backs. Unfortunately, Odunze will be this year’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba — a first-round pick who struggles to earn enough consistent targets as a rookie. Furthermore, Odunze and Smith-Njigba will have both spent their rookie season playing for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.

Ben Sinnott (TE – WAS): ADP: TE17 | ECR: TE26

Who is right? – The ADP

Fantasy players should be shocked to see Sinnott as the TE26 in the ECR. He has second-round NFL Draft capital attached to his name and joined an offense that lacks a clear-cut better option at the tight end position. Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Conklin, Noah Fant and Isaiah Likely are ranked higher than Sinnott in the ECR but are behind him in ADP. While he might not be a fantasy star in 2024, the rookie belongs in the high-end TE2 mix.

Players the ECR likes more than the ADP

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): ECR: QB7 | ADP: QB9

Who is right? – The ECR

Prescott was the QB21, averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game over the first five weeks last season. However, the veteran was the QB6, averaging 24.1 points per game from Week 6 through the end of the year. More importantly, the Cowboys should be one of the most pass-happy teams in 2024. CeeDee Lamb is arguably the top wide receiver in the NFL. Meanwhile, Dallas has the worst running back unit in the league. Prescott should be the favorite to have the most pass attempts this upcoming season.

James Conner (RB – ARI): ECR: RB21 | ADP: RB27

Who is right? – The ECR

While I’m slightly lower on Conner than the ECR, the ADP has the veteran running back ranked too low. The Cardinals spent a third-round pick on Trey Benson. However, the rookie won’t take the starting role from Conner in 2024. The veteran has never finished lower than RB10 since joining Arizona on a points-per-game basis in half-point PPR scoring. More importantly, the team improved the offensive line this offseason. The ADP is wrong for drafting D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren and Tony Pollard ahead of him.

Davante Adams (WR – LV): ECR: WR10 | ADP: WR13

Who is right? – The ECR

Some will have Adams on their Do-Not-Draft list this year. The veteran is on the wrong side of 30, will likely catch passes from Gardner Minshew and has competition for targets. However, the future Hall of Famer is still an elite wide receiver. Last year, he had the second-most targets in the NFL (175), finishing only six behind CeeDee Lamb. More importantly, Michael Pittman Jr. averaged 11 targets per game in Minshew’s 11 starts last season. Adams should get drafted as a WR1 despite the red flags.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): ECR: TE3 | ADP: TE5

Who is right? – The ADP

There is a change happening at the tight end position. Older studs like Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Andrews are giving way to the young guys, including Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. Last year, Andrews was the TE4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, the veteran posted the second-lowest yards per route run rate (1.93) and the lowest average depth of target (8.2) of his career in 2023, per Pro Football Focus. While Andrews remains a clear-cut TE1, he doesn’t belong in the top three.

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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