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Dynasty Draft Advice: 2023 Rookie Class Values (Fantasy Football)

The 2023 rookie class is, was, and likely always will be led by Bijan Robinson. We knew there were some other talented players in the class, but it’s rare we get a leap like we saw from Puka Nacua. All in all, you could make the case that there are a few studs from this class and seven or eight high-level dynasty draft assets.

As we revisit the class for dynasty draft value, what better place to start than comparing their ADP from a year ago to now? In the table below, you will find the difference in each player’s standing within the class from 2023 to now and the difference between their dynasty startup average draft position (ADP) from 2023 to now.

We’ll dive into the ADP difference from 2023 until now and share some dynasty draft advice around each of the players in the 2023 NFL rookie class.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide

Dynasty Draft Advice: Revisiting the 2023 Rookie Class

Some of the players listed did not register an ADP previously, so I labeled their rookie ADP at “50” and their 2024 ADP at “500” as the max. Because of that, we see some big jumps from the guys at the bottom, even though their dynasty standing is mostly irrelevant.

Player Team 2023 Rookie ADP 2024 Class ADP DIFF 2023 ADP 2024 ADP DIFF
Bijan Robinson ATL 1 1 0 8 6 2
Puka Nacua LAR 47 2 45 148 9 139
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 2 3 -1 34 12 22
De’Von Achane MIA 10 4 6 96 21 75
Sam LaPorta DET 20 5 15 113 30 83
Tank Dell HOU 31 6 25 184 39 145
Zay Flowers BAL 7 7 0 83 42 41
C.J. Stroud HOU 29 8 21 161 50 111
Rashee Rice KC 15 9 6 172 51 121
Dalton Kincaid BUF 8 10 -2 108 53 55
Jayden Reed GB 21 11 10 233 59 174
Anthony Richardson IND 5 12 -7 128 63 65
Jordan Addison MIN 4 13 -9 79 71 8
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 3 14 -11 103 80 23
Chase Brown CIN 25 15 10 281 117 164
Tyjae Spears TEN 19 16 3 164 122 42
Josh Downs IND 16 17 -1 232 125 107
Zach Charbonnet SEA 9 18 -9 119 137 -18
Quentin Johnston LAC 6 19 -13 186 145 41
Michael Wilson ARI 33 20 13 302 148 154
Luke Musgrave GB 26 21 5 202 150 52
Kendre Miller NO 12 22 -10 219 154 65
Marvin Mims DEN 18 23 -5 266 160 106
Will Levis TEN 24 24 0 443 169 274
Roschon Johnson CHI 17 25 -8 159 180 -21
Michael Mayer LV 14 26 -12 238 183 55
Keaton Mitchell BAL 54 27 27 466 187 279
Bryce Young CAR 11 28 -17 189 192 -3
Jalin Hyatt NYG 23 29 -6 192 205 -13
Tucker Kraft GB 43 30 13 452 210 242
Trey Palmer TB 53 31 22 500 217 283
Israel Abanikanda NYJ 28 32 -4 334 223 111
Tank Bigsby JAC 22 33 -11 182 225 -43
A.T. Perry NO 48 34 14 500 227 273
Jonathan Mingo CAR 13 35 -22 217 234 -17
Evan Hull IND 40 36 4 304 241 63
Tre Tucker LV 55 37 18 500 280 220
Eric Gray NYG 38 38 0 500 290 210
Deuce Vaughn DAL 37 39 -2 208 311 -103
Parker Washington JAC 49 40 9 505 318 187
Sean Tucker TB 42 41 1 500 331 169
Chris Rodriguez WAS 46 42 4 500 335 165
Cedric Tillman CLE 27 43 -16 500 336 164
Zach Evans LAR 30 44 -14 344 338 6
Charlie Jones CIN 50 45 5 500 340 160
Luke Schoonmaker DAL 35 46 -11 363 347 16
Tyler Scott CHI 39 47 -8 500 356 144
Brenton Strange JAC 44 48 -4 500 357 143
Darnell Washington PIT 34 49 -15 347 380 -33
Kayshon Boutte NE 32 50 -18 500 500 0
Hendon Hooker DET 36 51 -15 500 500 0
DeWayne McBride MIN 41 52 -11 500 500 0
Stetson Bennett LAR 45 53 -8 500 500 0
Kenny McIntosh SEA 51 54 -3 500 500 0
Xavier Hutchinson HOU 52 55 -3 500 500 0
Mohamed Ibrahim N/A 56 56 0 500 500 0
Rakin Jarrett TB 57 57 0 500 500 0
Will Mallory IND 58 58 0 500 500 0
Dorian Thompson-Robinson CLE 59 59 0 500 500 0

Dynasty Draft Advice: Elite Assets

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

As previously mentioned, Bijan Robinson leads this class and is being drafted sixth overall in dynasty startups despite finishing as the RB9 last season. One on hand, Bijan ceded more work to Tyler Allgeier than we anticipated, and he rushed for just 976 yards and four touchdowns.

On the other hand, he still managed to finish as RB9 in a brutal offense, finishing ninth in yards per touch with 5.4 while running the most routes of all running backs and finishing third in target share. The new coaching staff has no ties to Allgeier and may not utilize him as much. Either way, in an improved offense with Kirk Cousins at the helm, Robinson will smash and should continue to do so for the next five years, at least.

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

Puka Nacua may not have the largest delta in the table, but he is likely the biggest outlier from this class. He generated some buzz as a sleeper, but as his ADP proves, nobody had him pegged as an elite dynasty asset, let alone a potential impact player. New rule; when Sean McVay speaks, we listen.

Nacua busted on the scene immediately with 10 receptions for 119 yards in week 1 and followed it up with 15 grabs for 147 yards in week 2. Through four weeks with Cooper Kupp sidelined, Nacua posted 501 yards and a touchdown. Although many anticipated he would disappear when Kupp returned, Nacua finished with 1,486 yards and six touchdowns as the WR4.

Even if we remove the first four weeks without Kupp, Nacua was the WR8 in weeks 5-17. You can make a reasonable case for guys going behind him, like A.J. Brown, Garret Wilson, or Marvin Harrison Jr., but Nacua has proven he’s here to stay and is one of the best young dynasty receivers in the game.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)

Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 945 yards and 10 scores to go with 316 receiving yards and another score, finishing as the RB10, just a tick below Bijan. I said last year that if it wasn’t for Bijan, we would all be talking about Gibbs a whole lot more, and I still think that’s true. The presence of David Montgomery dampens Gibbs’ outlook slightly, but with Montgomery handling much of the short yardage work, Gibbs doesn’t need to put his body through those carries that are practically meaningless for fantasy.

He may miss out on some touchdowns here and there, but his ceiling is still extremely high. After posting the second-highest breakaway run rate and the seventh-most true yards per carry, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gibbs’ workload increase at the expense of Montgomery. No matter how you slice it, life is good as a dynasty manager with Jahmyr Gibbs on the roster.

Dynasty Draft Advice: High-Level Assets

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

As a rookie, De’Von Achane was one of the most efficient running backs in the league and was the poster boy for my January article on yards created by running backs. He was the top back in PFF’s elusiveness rating and was second in yards after contact per attempt with 5.12. He led all running backs in fantasy points per opportunity, yards per touch, breakaway run rate, and production premium, finishing as RB5 in PPR points per game.

The only question mark with Achane is his ability to stay healthy after he missed six games in his rookie season. His ADP might take a slight dip with Jaylen Wright added to the backfield, but Wright figures to be more of an eventual Raheem Mostert replacement. Mike McDaniel will always utilize multiple backs, but if Achane can stay healthy, he will remain efficient and be a fantasy stud.

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

Tight ends don’t make an impact as a rookie, they said. Sam LaPorta said otherwise to the tune of 889 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, and PPRs overall TE1. His 889 yards are the fourth-best mark among rookie tight ends all time, while his 10 touchdowns are second most. LaPorta didn’t just make his living on volume, he was efficient with the second most fantasy points per route run among all tight ends and was fourth in fantasy points per target.

The main knock on LaPorta is that he’s not the top pass catcher in his offense, but even so, he notched the third most unrealized air yards. There should be plenty to go around in this offense. With many of the other top tight ends getting close to retirement, LaPorta is dynasty’s top tight end at 23 years old and has a case to be in the elite category.

Tank Dell (WR – HOU)

It’s unfair to say Tank Dell came out of nowhere — he generated plenty of buzz as a prospect, but questions about his size and play strength, along with third-round draft capital, pushed him down draft boards. Not to mention, he was playing with a rookie QB on an uninspiring Texans offense.

Not so fast. Dell and the Texans offense put the NFL world on notice as the 5-foot-8, 165-pound receiver lit the Colts and Jaguars secondaries on fire with 217 receiving yards and two scores in Weeks 2 and 3 combined. He went on to post 709 yards and seven touchdowns in 10 games, but his slight frame kept him on the trainer’s table and out of the lineup for eight games.

Dell has proven he’s a stud, but can he stay healthy and continue to eat in an offense with Nico Collins and the recent addition of Stefon Diggs? I believe Diggs will impact Dell more than Collins, but we should still get some major spike weeks from the former.

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

In my rookie mock draft one year ago, I wrote about Zay Flowers as my top wide receiver in the class. Placing him ahead of the other receivers in the class was a hot take at the time, but Flowers is now being drafted as the top receiver from this class. I loved the talent, as he was my WR1 before the NFL draft, and I likely downgraded his landing spot less than most. He went on to tally 858 receiving yards, the second most for a Ravens receiver in the last seven seasons and found the endzone five times.

I’ve been as high on Flowers as anybody, but I’ve already sold my dynasty shares. He falls within this bucket in terms of ADP, but I don’t view him as high-end of an asset as others in this range. He did much of his damage with Mark Andrews sidelined, and while the Ravens are airing it out more, the offense is still built around Lamar Jacksons’ legs. It was an MVP season for the quarterback, and he still did not have a 1,000-yard receiver.

There isn’t much that stands out in Flowers’ advanced metrics, either. His win rates were great, and he created a lot of separation, but he led the team with just 108 targets, which would have placed him sixth among all tight ends. He will have his weeks and continue to be a top target in the offense, but I struggle to see the upside of an elite-level dynasty asset.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

If we’re talking superflex leagues, C.J. Stroud is an elite dynasty asset. Even in single quarterback leagues, Stroud’s ADP shot up 111 spots after one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory. His 4,108 passing yards are the third-highest mark all-time among rookie quarterbacks, while his 23 passing touchdowns tied for sixth most. Stroud’s completion percentage of 64% was solid, if unspectacular, but he made his money pushing the ball downfield.

His average depth of target (aDOT) was the highest among quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts at 9.3, while his deep ball completion percentage of 49.2% was fifth best. After finishing seventh in points per game among quarterbacks who played at least half the season, Stroud adds Stefon Diggs to his list of weapons. Diggs may not be the player he was a few seasons ago, but he can certainly help Stroud ascend into top-five QB status.

*Rashee Rice will be left off as his impending legal situation makes his dynasty value uncertain.

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Dynasty Draft Advice: Very Good, Not Yet Great Assets

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

Dalton Kincaid was the cream of the tight end crop in last year’s draft cycle, and while he didn’t disappoint, he was undoubtedly passed up by Sam LaPorta. Even with LaPorta’s greatness, Kincaid’s strong season should not be overlooked. He finished with 673 receiving yards, the 10th-best mark of all time for a rookie tight end. His two touchdowns limited him to the TE11 overall, as he saw just nine red zone targets compared to eight for teammate Dawson Knox.

Kincaid lined up in the slot 389 times compared to 247 inline and 140 out wide. Stefon Diggs’ absence should lead to more opportunities, but it remains to be seen what the team will do with its collection of slot receivers. The sky is the limit for Kincaid as a full-time player, but his usage will be something to monitor. Regardless, he’s one of the better young dynasty assets at tight end.

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

After being selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Jayden Reed led an ascending Packers offense in receiving with 793 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished the season as WR25 after getting hot through the second half of the season. Overall, it was a strong rookie season for the Michigan State product, but there’s not a lot that stands out about his success or advanced metrics. He was 27th in yards per route run, 39th in yards per target, and 53rd in yards per reception, although he posted the eighth-most fantasy points per route run and fifth-most fantasy points per target.

His low average depth of target at 10.3 limits him while he asked to play near the line of the scrimmage and win after the catch. While the Packers don’t have an established WR1, it is a crowded offense with many talented pass catchers. Reed can certainly get better, but it’s tough to see his dynasty value getting too much higher, making him a solid sell candidate.

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

Playing just three complete games, Anthony Richardson’s rookie season is reminiscent of my recent visit to Costco as they handed out cake samples. It was a small sample size, but it left me wanting more. If we remove Richardson’s 4.4 points in Week 5, in which he left with an AC sprain, Richardson averaged over 23 points in his other three contests.

For context, only Josh Allen averaged more points per game over the course of the season, with 24.2. Richardson is the most athletic quarterback prospect of all time, but he looked relatively comfortable in the pocket last season, where the Colts want him to work. The team added Adonai Mitchell in the draft and has a solid supporting cast to work with. I expect Richardson to be much higher on this list next season, and I’m buying where I can.

Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)

Outside of Nacua, Jordan Addison had the best statistical season of the rookie wide receivers. He finished as WR23 with 911 yards and 10 touchdowns, but there were some blemishes. Addison was not particularly efficient and had some absolute stinkers. His touchdown total carried much of the weight, while his advanced metrics all look average. Obviously, Justin Jefferson is the top dog in the Vikings offense, and T.J. Hockenson is a target hog when healthy.

Additionally, losing Kirk Cousins is going to have a huge impact on Addison. Don’t get me wrong, Addison is a fine player, but I’m a bit lower on him than others.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

I was lower on JSN coming into last season than most, and it was a tough season for the rookie receiver with 628 yards and four touchdowns. There are some bright spots, however. He posted the sixth-best target separation of 2.32 and the ninth-best average cushion at 6.32. Although he failed to notch a 100-yard game, JSN improved after the team’s Week 5 bye and remained relatively consistent the rest of the way. His snap share was limited throughout the season, with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett playing in two wide sets, but his snaps went up after bye week and also remained consistent the rest of the way.

His 17% target share and 6.1 aDOT are alarming, and that’s the product of Metcalf and Lockett working downfield. With Tyler Lockett’s play declining and an out on his contract after this season, the hope is that the Seahawks begin to faze him out in favor of JSN. We’re in wait-and-see mode with Smith-Njigba for now.

Dynasty Draft Advice: Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder

Chase Brown — Brown showed off his explosiveness in the last six weeks of the season, recording 173 yards on 42 carries and 11 receptions for 149 yards. He should have a bigger role this season with Joe Mixon out and Zack Moss in, and he is a big breakout candidate.

Tyjae Spears — Spears was extremely dynamic and efficient last season, posting the sixth-most yards per touch and fifth-best breakaway run rate. He tallied 453 yards and two touchdowns on 100 carries, adding 385 receiving yards and a score on 52 receptions. Many hoped he would take over for Derrick Henry, but he may be best suited for a committee, and he and Tony Pollard should be a fun one.

Josh Downs — Downs was a very trendy draft prospect… until he wasn’t. After posting 771 yards and a couple of touchdowns, his dynasty ADP rose over 100 spots. His best performances came with Richardson out of the lineup, however. He’s a good player with limited upside, and the team drafted Adonai Mitchell.

Zach Charbonnet — A solid rookie season working behind Kenneth Walker amounted to 462 yards and a touchdown. I suspect we’ll see more of the same from Charbonnet going forward.

Quentin Johnston — I don’t like to use the word “bust,” but let’s face it: Johnston busted hard last season. All my fears with his game true. He’s not physical enough, particularly at the line of scrimmage, for somebody of his size, and he’s a below-average route runner. The Chargers have plenty of opportunity available at wide receiver, but Johnston needs a lot of development.

Michael Wilson — One of the more exciting players on this list, Michael Wilson flew under the radar as a third-round pick out of Stanford but delivered 565 yards and three scores in his rookie season. The team added Marvin Harrison Jr., but Wilson should start opposite of him on the outside. He could thrive in this role and is one of my favorite sleepers.

Luke Musgrave — If it wasn’t for a concussion, ankle sprain, and lacerated kidney, I suspect Musgrave would be higher on this list and generating more buzz. Tucker Kraft earned himself a role the way he played, but Musgrave is a special athlete and was utilized downfield when he was in the lineup. He could sneak into the TE1 range.

Kendre Miller — Many were optimistic that Miller could take over the Saints backfield, but even with Alvin Kamara missing the first three games and Jamal Williams struggling, Miller wasn’t able to do so. He missed seven games with an ankle sprain, so it’s difficult to evaluate him, but he started slow before rushing 13 times for 73 yards and a touchdown in the season finale. I could see him passing up Williams and being a fine compliment to Kamara.

Marvin Mims Jr. — Marvin Mims was an enigma in his rookie season, making splash plays at times and struggling to get on the field at others. He caught two passes for 113 yards in week 2 and followed that up with 73 yards and 47 yards in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively, but was mostly quiet after that. With Jerry Jeudy out, Mims will have an opportunity to break out this season, along with newcomer Troy Franklin.

Will Levis — Levis could be a fine QB2 for the long haul, or the Titans might replace him after the season. He showed flashes last year, but with an overhaul of offensive skill players, it’s make-or-break time for the fiery quarterback.

Dynasty Draft Advice: So You’re Tellin’ Me There’s A Chance

Roschon Johnson — Many fantasy managers optimistically viewed Johnson as the best option to take over the Bears option. That vision didn’t come to reality in his rookie season, with just 81 carries for 352 yards. The Bears added D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert, who remain ahead of Johnson on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean he can’t claw his way up to a relevant role. Swift and Herbert have a history of injuries, and Johnson is the best pass blocker of the bunch. He’ll need to improve his vision and elusiveness to become an impact player.

Michael Mayer — Michael Mayer checks many of the boxes you want to see for a breakout tight end until you factor in Brock Bowers. Mayer posted just 304 yards in his rookie season but was a high second-round pick and tallied the ninth-most yards per reception (11.3) for a tight end and the 12th-most yards per target (7.6). There’s room in the Raiders offense to earn more targets, but the question now revolves around the usage between he and Bowers.

Keaton Mitchell — The undrafted free agent out of East Carolina was electric in his rookie season with the second most fantasy points per opportunity among running backs with 1.21 and the most true yards per carry at 7.1. His season was shortened due to a torn ACL, but he tallied 396 rushing yards and two scores in the six games he received a carry, including nine for 138 in his first game with a carry. Mitchell is a burner who relies on burst, so the torn ACL is a major dent in his outlook, but if he can return to form, he would be an excellent complement to Derrick Henry and whomever else the Ravens plugin as a power back in the future.

Bryce Young — It was an extremely disappointing rookie campaign for the number one overall selection, but the same can be said of everything the Panthers did last season. Luckily, they have overhauled their coaching staff and added many talented skill players to the offense. It seems unlikely Young will rise to stardom, but there’s still hope he can be a solid quarterback in this league.

Jalin Hyatt — The former Biletnikoff award winner showed flashes of what he can be at the NFL level but failed to maintain any consistency. In 17 games, he had three outings of 75 or more yards but failed to top 25 in any of the other 14 contests. With the highest aDOT of any receiver at 21, Hyatt is clearly a downfield threat but will need a functional offense to make splash plays. The addition of Malik Nabers should help Hyatt, but he’s nothing more than a complimentary piece.

Tucker Kraft – Kraft was one of my tight end sleepers in the NFL draft, and he showed why after Luke Musgrave suffered a lacerated kidney. He tallied 355 yards and proved he can play in the running and passing game. I still prefer Musgrave and hope they don’t eat into each other’s workload too much, but there’s potential for both to be viable options.

A.T. Perry – I’m skipping some names here as A.T. Perry’s ADP falls outside of this range, but I believe he has a chance to be a real player. The sixth-round pick didn’t get real playing time until week 10, but in 10 games, he posted 246 yards and four touchdowns, including a two-touchdown game to end the season. He’s slated to start on the outside opposite of Chris Olave and could generate a lot of buzz as the season nears. He’s one of my sleepers I’ll be targeting this season and beyond.

Other Interesting Names to Watch

  • Tre Tucker (WR – LV)
  • Trey Palmer (WR – TB)
  • Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)
  • Chris Rodrigues (RB – WAS)
  • Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)

More Dynasty Draft Advice

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