FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
The Cleveland offense is worrisome. Deshaun Watson is averaging a sickly 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Starting offensive tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin have played one combined game this season. The Browns have not scored 20 points or accumulated 300 yards of offense in any game. But dare I say that Watson is startable in a pinch this week? He’s facing a Washington pass defense that ranks 28th in DVOA and has allowed 20.8 fantasy points per game to QBs, second-most behind only the Jaguars. Wills and Conklin returned to practice on Thursday, so Watson should have improved pass protection against a Commanders pass rush that has collected only eight sacks. I have Watson ranked QB14. He’s not a desirable start, but, hey, we’ve reached the bye weeks, and sometimes fantasy managers have to resort to unpleasant options.
Caleb Williams has had a rough transition to the NFL, no matter how you slice it, as the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 30th in competition percentage over expected (CPOE), and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks from a clean pocket, Williams ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and he has logged the seventh-highest off-target rate. Williams has another juicy pass defense to face this week, but it’s worth seriously considering if he can take advantage of it at this point. Carolina has allowed the 14th-highest CPOE, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the third-most fantasy points to passing.
Long gone are the days of workhorse backs, so now the best backfields for fantasy football are ones that focus usage on just two backs, and we have that going on in Tennessee. While their offense has been inefficient on its best day, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the only running backs to have gotten a snap for the Titans this season. It’s a true 1A (Pollard) and 1B (Spears) situation, which makes it that much more appealing to target. Let’s start with Pollard, who has seen a 60% snap rate in every game so far this season. The best part is that he’s used consistently when he’s on the field as he’s had at least 20 opportunities in three of four games this year. He’s averaging a really solid 17.9 expected PPR points per game, but he hasn’t hit his full potential with an average of 3.4 PPR points under expected per game. On to Spears, who hit a 40% snap share for the second time on Monday night while also getting a season-high 17 opportunities. Spears’ most likely path to real work and production is an injury to Pollard. But, even with Tennessee’s offense lacking real upside, he remains one of the best running back handcuffs at the moment.
It has been a tough road for De’Von Achane without Tua Tagovailoa. Over the last two weeks, he has played at least 73% of the snaps in each game while averaging 13.5 touches and 45.5 total yards. He has had RB33 and RB45 weekly finishes in PPR scoring. Achane also hasn’t been breaking tackles anywhere close to how he was last year. Among 53 qualifying backs, Achane has ranked 27th in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 47th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line hasn’t done him any favors, with the 10th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Achane has another tough matchup this week. New England might be a dumpster fire in many respects, but their run defense has been good. They have held rushers to the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest rushing yards per game, and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.
The Patriots have been better on the ground, but they are still a bottom-ten team in EPA/run (-0.15). Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are making lemonade, and the Patriots are third-best in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.82). However, their chances of breaking the second level seem slim, with only 12 runs of 10 yards or more this season in over 114 attempts. Stevenson looks to be the most reliable fantasy asset on the team, accounting for two of their four total offensive touchdowns.
Through four games, the Rams have given up WR1 overall finishes to Jauan Jennings & Marvin Harrison Jr., as well as a WR5 finish to Jameson Williams. The Rams, unsurprisingly, have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and rank 31st in DVOA. They have also allowed a league-high 8.1 yards per net pass attempt.
In the two games Jayden Reed played with Jordan Love he has finished as the PPR WR1 and WR2, putting up 312 yards and three touchdowns combined. The Packers might spread the ball around plenty but when Reed has it in his hands he’ll be too much for this weak Rams defense.
The discrepancy between Tyreek Hill‘s 129 air yards and his actual 23 receiving yards sticks out on this table. The problem is, with no other option right now besides Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson, how much do we expect positive regression for Hill in the weeks to come?
The fact Hill had a very strong 18.4 aDOT but caught just four passes for 23 yards speaks to how inaccurate Huntley was with deep balls on Monday night. The Dolphins have to find a way to get Hill in more crossing screens or underneath plays where he can just have his speed take over.
Tyreek Hill only had 35 air yards in Week 3, so this is certainly an improvement, but he managed 40 receiving yards on three receptions. Maybe Hill’s path to success doesn’t rely on deep throws in the weeks to come, but on lower air yards and higher success rate throws.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and the fire continues to roar on Davante Adams getting traded. With that and Adams missing Week 4, I want to be ahead of the curve on knowing how the targets will spread out if he is dealt. In the game against the Browns, Tre Tucker ran a route on a season-high 96% of dropbacks (up from his previous high of 85%) and earned himself six targets after being targeted nine times in Week 3. Jakobi Meyers also continued to be heavily involved with double-digit targets, running a route on every Las Vegas dropback. Tucker and Meyers were the only two wide receivers to run a route on more than 50% of the Raiders’ Week 4 dropbacks. DJ Turner did see a season-high routes run rate at 50%, but only earned one target. He would see the biggest relative jump in value should Adams be traded, but right now Tucker and Meyers are in a tier of their own (along with the tight ends on the team). With how much I expect Las Vegas to be passing going forward, these are some of the more valuable players that could be available on waiver wires or for trade in your leagues.
The tight end landscape is putrid this season. However, a rookie tight end appears to be ascending for the Bengals. All had a season-high 60% snap share in Week 4. Many of his snaps were as a blocker. Still, getting on the field is half the battle, and All has earned targets at a high rate.
Among 58 tight ends with at least 25 routes this year, All is first in targets per route run (0.35). He’s caught precisely four passes in three straight games for 32, 22 and 28 receiving yards. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), All has caught all 12 of his targets, with three behind the line of scrimmage, eight short (zero to nine yards downfield) and one medium (10 to 19 yards downfield).
Despite the shallow usage, All has more untapped potential. According to PFF, he had a 7.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) on 116 career targets in college. Furthermore, All had an 8.7-yard aDOT, 34 targets, 21 receptions, 299 receiving yards, 2.62 yards per route run, three receiving touchdowns and 0.30 targets per route run in seven games in his final college season, with only three routes in his final collegiate game, when he injured his knee. In his final college season, he had six targets behind the line of scrimmage, 15 short, five medium and seven deep (20+ yards downfield) for four, 10, three and four receptions.
All could tap into more of his potential in a tasty matchup this week. The Ravens have coughed up the second-most half-PPR points per game (11.8) to tight ends this season. All is an intriguing streamer with the potential to stick on fantasy rosters.
The tight end position has been a fantasy nightmare, as George Kittle (11.9) and Dallas Goedert (10.5) are the only two to average more than 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game this year. Trey McBride missed the Week 4 matchup with a concussion but returned to practice on Wednesday. He is the TE3 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 8.4 fantasy points per contest. McBride doesn’t have a receiving touchdown and is a fumble recovery in the end zone away from being the TE10 on a points-per-game basis (6.4).
Furthermore, the third-year tight end has had 30 or fewer receiving yards and 5.5 or fewer fantasy points in two of three games this season. Meanwhile, the 49ers have held tight ends to the third-fewest receiving yards (16) and the sixth-fewest fantasy points (4.4) per game, surrendering 21 or fewer yards and 3.6 or fewer fantasy points in all but one contest. Austin Hooper is the highest-scoring tight end against San Francisco this year, totaling 8.3 fantasy points last week because of a garbage-time touchdown.
Micah McFadden has a firm hold on the linebacker role next to Bobby Okereke and has responded with five or more solos in each of his last three contests. He played 75% of the snaps in Week 4, with Darius Muasau playing zero and Isaiah Simmons playing 25%. Neither player appears to be a threat to McFadden’s playing time going forward. He is a strong LB3 option who can double as an LB2 play during the heavy byes but with just four teams on break for Week 5, treat him as an LB3 for a neutral matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.
