The redraft fantasy football season is over, but dynasty fantasy football is 365 days a year. Of course, plenty of dynasty managers will be checked out right now, using this time to take a break from fantasy and enjoy the NFL playoffs.
But if you’re like me, you’re already feeling the itch to get some trades in. With that in mind, last week I covered three dynasty players to buy. This week, I will be breaking down overvalued dynasty players to sell. Use our dynasty trade calculator to assess value and for trade ideas. Let’s get started.
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Dynasty Fantasy Football Players To Sell
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
After an incredible 2024 season, Joe Burrow is currently the QB4 in both KeepTradeCut’s crowdsourced Rankings (KTC) and FantasyCalc’s market-based rankings. FantasyPros’ expert consensus dynasty rankings (ECR) have him one slot lower at QB5, but even that is still too high for my liking.
The issue with Joe Burrow is simple: He’s a pocket-passing quarterback. Assuming you are using standard fantasy scoring settings, with four points per passing touchdown and one point for every 25 passing yards, it’s very hard for a pocket passer to put up truly elite fantasy scores.
Of course, that’s what Burrow did this year, scoring 22.5 points per game to rank as the fantasy QB3. But it took an absolute perfect storm for that to happen. The Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up the sixth-most expected points added (EPA) per play. They also had two dominant receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, not to mention decent ancillary weapons in Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki. On top of all of that, the Bengals led the league with an absurd 79.6% of their touchdowns coming through the air — the NFL average was just 61.3%.
This isn’t to say Burrow’s excellent fantasy season was entirely because of his situation. He certainly did his part, with a 92.8 Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade that was both the highest in the NFL and the highest of his career. I’m not here to say Burrow is anything other than a top-tier NFL quarterback. But, as a pocket passer, he needs not just elite performance but also all of those other factors to break his way to put up a dominant season.
Just look at Patrick Mahomes, who rushes nearly twice as much as Burrow, with 20 yards per game compared to Burrow’s 11. Although this was certainly a down year, Mahomes is still undeniably a top-tier real-life quarterback. But thanks to the situation he finds himself in, he has finished outside the top six of fantasy quarterbacks in each of the last two years. Mahomes, once valued as the Dynasty QB1, has seen his value slide as a result.
If we want to make an argument for Burrow, there’s a solid chance his situation isn’t going to change. The franchise quarterback himself has publicly put pressure on the Bengals to re-sign Higgins, who is a free agent this offseason. Cincinnati will also have to provide Chase with a record-setting extension sooner rather than later. If the Bengals retain both wideouts, that’s a double win for Burrow, as it not only locks in his two top targets but also increases the chances their defense will be miserable for the foreseeable future.
But that needs to happen for Burrow to be even close to worth his current dynasty ranking… and I’d still probably argue for Jalen Hurts, who is nearly two years younger and has so much production banked in thanks to the Tush Push. If anything goes wrong — Higgins leaves in free agency, the Bengals’ defense improves or Cincinnati just happens to score more of their touchdowns on the ground — Burrow will likely slide down the rankings to join the large tier of solid but not game-changing pocket passing fantasy quarterbacks.
If you have him on your fantasy roster, I would recommend trading “down” slightly (to Mahomes or Hurts) for a small addition on top or even taking a big perceived drop in value (to someone like Jared Goff or Tua Tagovailoa) and getting another quality piece in return. The production gap between Burrow and those names is very likely to shrink in 2025, let alone in the years to come.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Coming into this season, Garrett Wilson was consistently ranked as a top-10 dynasty wide receiver if not a top-five option. I was firmly out on him at that price. As of right now, I feel vindicated, as he has fallen outside the top 10 in all three of the rankings referenced earlier. Someone smarter than I am would probably chalk that up as a good take and move on… but I’m ready to double down. Wilson is still ranked as the WR11 in dynasty ECR, and I see no reason for him to be that high.
Let’s start with the obvious: Wilson has never produced like a difference-making fantasy receiver. This year’s WR23 half-PPR finish in points per game was his first inside even the top 30 receivers. Believers in Wilson will point to his situation as the main driver behind those lackluster results, arguing we should trust in his elite talent to win out eventually. On the one hand, backing talent over situation is usually the right approach, especially in Dynasty — things change incredibly quickly in the NFL.
But that doesn’t mean we should ignore players’ situations entirely, and Wilson’s is objectively terrible. This was supposed to be the year when the Jets turned the corner, with Aaron Rodgers carrying them to playoff contention and Wilson to fantasy WR1 status. Instead, New York imploded en route to a 5-12 season. Meanwhile, Rodgers loved having Wilson as his No. 1 WR so much that he demanded the Jets trade for his old friend — Davante Adams. Wilson limped to the finish line as the WR43 in points per game from Week 10 onward.
Sure, this was all probably much more on the 41-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles injury with a history of drama than the 24-year-old receiver. But does anyone see a solution coming to New York in the new future? Outside of hitting on a mid-first-round rookie quarterback in a very weak draft class (unlikely), their best option might be *checks notes* Sam Darnold?
The most optimistic possible scenario for Wilson is probably a trade away from the Jets, which was a hot rumor near the end of the season as he was clearly unhappy with his situation. But a young, top-tier receiver being traded would be nearly unprecedented… unless the Jets’ decision-makers don’t view Wilson as a top-tier receiver.
This brings me to the second part of my argument, which is probably much more controversial: Are we sure Garrett Wilson is that good? This year, he ranked 23rd among qualified receivers in PFF receiving grade, 57th in yards per route run and 33rd in Fantasy Points Data’s adjusted separation score.
The only time he posted a truly elite PFF grade was in his rookie year when he ranked ninth with an 85.9 receiving grade. He also ranked sixth in the league in separation score that season, but he was still just 34th in yards per route run. Putting it all together, Wilson looks more like a good-to-great NFL receiver with an excellent rookie year than a bona fide superstar.
To be honest, even I am not 100% sold on my own argument that Wilson isn’t as talented as the consensus opinion. Plenty of people who know far more about real-life football than I do believe Wilson is a game-changing player. But, with nothing to point to on the fantasy side but three years of lackluster production, I’m skeptical enough of the elite-talent narrative that I wouldn’t pay top-15 dynasty wide receiver prices for Wilson. If you can find someone who will, now is the time to sell.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
As with Wilson, this is a bit of a double-down take for me, as I was firmly out on Dalton Kincaid heading into this season. After a thoroughly disappointing year in which the sophomore ranked as the TE22 with 6.1 half-PPR points per game, Kincaid’s dynasty rankings have unsurprisingly fallen… but they haven’t fallen far enough. Kincaid is still the TE6 on both KTC and FantasyCalc, as well as the TE7 in ECR. Once again, I don’t see what he has done to merit that ranking.
Technically, Kincaid was a TE1 in 2023, finishing as exactly the TE12. But he once again ranked outside the TE1 range in points per game, landing as the TE15. That’s especially unimpressive at a position that is notorious for having a few true difference-makers followed by a long list of mostly interchangeable borderline-top-12 options. And that’s the big issue with Kincaid: He hasn’t shown anything at all to indicate he will ever be a game-changing fantasy tight end.
This year, Kincaid was in essentially the perfect situation. He was on a dominant offense with an MVP candidate quarterback but not an alpha (or even really a beta) at wide receiver. The Bills attempted to feature him, too. He posted elite route participation rates multiple times early in the season and ranked third among all tight ends in terms of the percentage of his targets that were designed plays.
However, that second stat points to a larger problem, which is that Kincaid simply wasn’t getting open and earning targets like we would want to see from an elite receiving tight end. Among qualified tight ends, he currently ranks 12th (postseason included) in PFF receiving grade. That may not sound too bad, but it lands him just behind Foster Moreau, Noah Gray and Austin Hooper — remember, there are only a few truly game-changing tight ends in any given year. He also ranked 14th among tight ends in yards per route run, falling to 20th, if we filter to exclude designed targets.
Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kincaid bounces back with a TE1 season next year. I wouldn’t even be shocked if he has at least one top-six finish, likely on the back of a bunch of touchdowns. But I could say the same thing about multiple other tight ends at similar ages (Kincaid is already 25), who aren’t valued as top-six dynasty assets at the position. Prospect hype is carrying too much water for Kincaid’s current value given we have seen two years of him in the NFL. Now is the time to cash in on that hype while you still can.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.