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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers: MLB Free Agency (2025)

The Major League Baseball offseason always features player movement. Understandably, there are winners and losers in free agency. The players changing teams or re-signing with the club they played on last year are the most apparently impacted. However, incumbents can also be helped or hurt by free agency transactions. One team is well represented, with multiple players lumped together in the winners and losers categories. Below, find out who some of the most significantly impacted fantasy baseball players are by free agency.

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Fantasy Baseball Winners & Losers: MLB Free Agency

MLB Free Agency Winners

Blake Snell (SP – LAD) | 49.2 ADP

Roki Sasaki (SP – LAD) | 109.8 ADP

Michael Conforto (OF – LAD) | 300 ADP

Hyeseong Kim (2B/SS – LAD) | 329.8 ADP

The defending World Series champs are a juggernaut. Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki will benefit from the run support Los Angeles’s elite offense will provide them. In addition, LA’s bullpen is stacked, enhancing the odds of protecting leads for Snell and Sasaki.

Meanwhile, Michael Conforto and Hyeseong Kim will join an already-stacked lineup. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers were first in wRC+ (118) in 2024. Conforto will also get a lift from his new home ballpark. Per our park factors, Oracle Park has park factors of 0.916 for runs and 0.963 for homers versus 0.940 and 1.122 for Dodger Stadium.

Roster Resource projects Kim to be the No. 9 hitter for the Dodgers. His fantasy value could have benefited from hitting higher for a different organization. Yet, if he was going to bat in the bottom third of most lineups, hitting ninth for the Dodgers is more fantasy-friendly than doing so elsewhere. He’ll have quality batters getting on base ahead of him and elite talent batting behind him to drive him in.

Anthony Santander (OF – TOR) | 76.6 ADP

Anthony Santander will bounce from one American League East team to another. He should be surrounded by similarly talented players on the Blue Jays as he was on the Orioles. Yet, Rogers Centre has more hitter-friendly conditions than Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The switch-hitter is unlikely to duplicate last year’s success, but a move from the Orioles to the Blue Jays is more favorable for his fantasy outlook than a return to Baltimore.

Christian Walker (1B – HOU) | 78 ADP

Christian Walker is a power-first fantasy option, and his pop should get a pick-me-up by joining the Astros. Right-handed batters at Chase Field, Walker’s former stomping ground, had a park factor of 0.842 for homers, the fouth-lowest in MLB. Daikin Park in Houston increases homers for righties, with a park factor of 1.053 for right-handed homers. Thus, after falling short of 30 homers last year, with 26 in 552 plate appearances, he should recapture his 30-homer form from 2022 and 2023.

Sean Manaea (SP – NYM) | 175.4 ADP

Clay Holmes (RP – NYM) | 281.6 ADP

Frankie Montas (SP – NYM) | Undrafted

Sean Manaea thrived in his first season in the Big Apple. He was the 23rd-ranked pitcher in 2024 in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric. The lefty’s ERA was nearly identical in the first half (3.46) and second half (3.48). However, Manaea significantly improved his walk rate (10.0% versus 6.8%), strikeout rate (24.0% and 26.0%), WHIP (1.21 and 0.94) and xFIP (4.29 and 3.75) from the first half to the second half. He’ll have an opportunity to continue to build on his success after re-signing with the Mets.

Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas can also make the most of their opportunity to pitch for the Mets. Citi Field has the fourth-lowest park factor for runs (0.931). Montas toed the slab at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and slightly pitcher-friendly American Family Field last year, and the veteran righty shaved his ERA and xFIP from 5.01 and 4.69, respectively, with the Reds to 4.55 and 3.56 with the Brewers. Perhaps the Mets can help him pitch closer to his xFIP with Milwaukee, putting him on the radar in 14-team mixed leagues or NL-only formats.

Meanwhile, Holmes will have an opportunity to start after losing his closing role for the Yankees at the end of last season. Unless he was going to have an opportunity to close for another team, an opportunity to start is the best outcome for Holmes’ 2025 fantasy baseball potential.

Joc Pederson (OF – TEX) | 301 ADP

Joc Pederson has sandwiched his two best offensive seasons (144 wRC+ in 2022 and 151 wRC+ in 2024) around a mediocre final season in San Francisco in 2023. He made the most of his time in the desert with the Diamondbacks.

Pederson was the 74th-ranked batter in 2024 in our VBR metric and a terror for righties. Roster Resource projects Pederson to bat cleanup against righties for the Rangers, and the lefty slugger upgrades his new home digs this season. Left-handed batters have a park factor of 1.228 for homers at Globe Life Field in Texas compared to 0.767 at Chase Field in Arizona. Pederson is a sneaky value in leagues with daily lineup changes and even a reasonable pick to use in righty-heavy weeks in weekly lineup formats.

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MLB Free Agency Losers

Lucas Erceg (RP – KC) | 151.6 ADP

I recently touted Lucas Erceg as a “must-draft” pitcher, but I penned that piece before the Royals signed Carlos Estevez (286.3 ADP). His dominance with the Royals is still enough to make him an attractive pick in leagues as shallow as 10-team mixed leagues until the Royals officially name a closer. However, it’s imprudent to pick him with a top-200 selection after the Royals signed Estevez to a sizable two-year contract.

Kirby Yates (RP – LAD) | 161 ADP

Tanner Scott (RP – LAD) | 200 ADP

Blake Treinen (RP – LAD) | 291 ADP

Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen are all closer-caliber high-leverage relievers. Unfortunately, they’re also all in the same bullpen, saying nothing of Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips. General manager Brandon Gomes said, “We anticipate Tanner getting lots of saves.” President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman also spoke highly of Scott’s willingness to fit into LA’s bullpen unselfishly. As a result, the saturation of LA’s bullpen with elite relievers could lead to a closer-by-committee situation, which would cap the upside for saves for Scott, Yates and anyone else who mixes in. It’s worth taking speculative stabs on them, though. If anyone takes a stranglehold of the closer job, their fantasy value would skyrocket.

Tyler O’Neill (OF – BAL) | 176 ADP

Tyler O’Neill was a three-true-outcome machine last year, with 31 homers, 11.2 BB% and 33.6 K% in 473 plate appearances for the Red Sox. Predictably, his high strikeout rate limited him to an unsavory .241 batting average.

His batting average could further slide this year without the benefit of 30-plus homers on his new team. O’Neill’s .213 expected batting average (xBA) and .480 expected slugging (xSLG) were lower than his .241 batting average and .511 slugging, suggesting he was lucky in 2024.

In addition to facing probable regression, even if he returned to the Red Sox, he must combat a park factor downgrade in Baltimore. Fenway Park is tied for the fourth-highest park factor for runs (1.093) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the sixth-lowest (0.938) mark. Sadly, it gets worse for O’Neill. Right-handed batters have a park factor of 1.043 at Fenway Park homers and an MLB low of 0.713 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. O’Neill was already a regression candidate, but his park factor downgrade also makes him a loser in free agency.

Unsigned Players

Pitchers and catchers will report soon, and many players are still unsigned. Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and others are still free agents. It’s impossible to view them as anything but losers until they find new homes.

Last season, Snell didn’t sign with the Giants until March 19, J.D. Martinez didn’t sign with the Mets until March 23 and Jordan Montgomery didn’t sign with the Diamondbacks until March 29. Their respective debuts for their organizations in 2024 were April 8, April 26 and April 19.

The longer it takes unsigned free agents to ink deals, the less likely they will begin the season on an active roster. Furthermore, they can’t help fantasy teams when they aren’t on Major League rosters. Undoubtedly, some players will begin agreeing to terms with teams and be ready to contribute by Opening Day. Nevertheless, unsigned players should be slightly docked in fantasy baseball rankings in the meantime.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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